We've Moved!

I'm writing this to announce that we will no longer be posting at www.behindtheplatefantasy.com. Paul Greco and Patrick DiCaprio have generously offered us our own blog at www.fantasypros911.com. The new address is http://www.fantasypros911.com/Behind-The-Plate-Blog/. This website will stay open and functional but all new posts will be at the Behind The Plate Blog at Fantasy Pros 911.

With the amount of hours that I'm working and writing for Fantasy Pros it's been difficult to maintain this website. The move will allow me to do all of my posting on one site and I don't have to worry about keeping up with the aesthetics of the site. I'm very excited about the move because of the exposure that our guys will no be receiving. Fantasy Pros 911 is quickly becoming the biggest fantasy site on the net and it's only going to get bigger.

I'd like to thank all of you for your support and your kind remarks over the years. While I may miss some of the things that go with running my own site it will be much easier for me this way. I hope that all of you continue to follow us at Fantasy Pros 911 and all of the other great writers at the site as well. It's the best community in fantasy baseball.

Thanks again to everyone and I'll see you at the new site.

Chris Mulligan




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Mock Draft Analysis: Amateur Mixed 5x5, 2/6/09 (Pt. 3)

As promised, the third and final installment of my epic 3-part analysis of a seemingly unimportant mock draft, in which I cite what I believe to be the 11 worst pics. One important caveat before I begin: I am not attempting to put down anyone when I say that someone made a bad pick. I’m just trying to provide a service to the general public by offering my opinions on what draft positions provide you with good or bad value. It’s also important to remember that this was just a mock draft, so people may have been using a specific strategy that would cause them to draft someone where they wouldn’t normally draft them. With all that in mind, here are the 11 worst picks.

You can view the entire draft here.

11 Worst Picks:

-Brandon Phillips – R2 P10: I already wrote an extensive article on why I think he’ll be a bust, but regardless, I think the end of the second round is way too early for him.

-Aramis Ramirez – R3 P8: Paul Singman did a great profile on Ramirez last November over at THT, and I recommend you check that out if you haven’t already. Far too early in the draft for this aging veteran, even at a shallow position.

-Carlos Quentin – R4 P1: This is about where Quentin has been taken in most mocks, but it’s a little soon for me with the questions surrounding his recovery. Could be a great selection if healthy, though.

-Corey Hart – R4 P9: Refer to my recent profile on him (as well as McLouth) for more detailed information. Even if you’re a believer in him, though, you could probably wait til at least the fifth round to get him.

-David Ortiz – R5 P6: I’m not a big believer in Ortiz at this point, but I think you could still take him a little later if you really wanted him.

-Chris Davis – R5 P12: There’s a good chance I’ll go after Davis, but probably not this early. In this person’s defense, though, he did have 22 picks before his next selection, so it is a bit unfair to criticize the selection of Davis in the fifth round in this circumstance.

-Bobby Abreu – R6 P5: For starters, we don’t know where he’ll be next year. Also, he’s an aging veteran that looks to be on the decline.

-Dan Uggla – R6 P9: A lot like Dunn, but not as good. Also probably not as likely to sustain his numbers, either. But he was selected before Dunn – go figure.

-Michael Young – R6 P10: Honestly, I’m not a huge Michael Young fan. There are far better options at short, yet he was taken ahead of most of them.

-Derek Jeter – R9 P7: Somehow, Jeter will almost always manage to get taken before the tenth round. Like with Young, there were better options on the table.

-Miguel Tejada – R11 P2: Another aging veteran on the decline. Same as the previous two – there were better options still available, namely J.J. Hardy.

Well, I think that’s more than enough analysis for one amateur mock draft. In closing, I’m finding my mock draft experiences to be very helpful, and I’d fully recommend trying them out for yourself if you get the chance. I never really understood how difficult it was to get a sense of actually drafting until I had to do it myself, so get to it if you haven’t already.

-John Dorhauer

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Patrolling the Web

Getting closer to Spring Training and things are starting to pick up. Here's a look at what's going on in the fantasy baseball world.

First off, Congrats to our own John Dorhauer for making this morning's Yardbarker Morning Bark with his article The 40/40 Club: Who's Got Next?. Good work man.

Mike Muschiano and I go head to head in a debate on Johnny Cueto at Fantasy Pros 911. Check it out here.

Robert Sikon has a great new website out called Fantasy Baseball Trade Market. I will be proudly representing Behind The Plate and Fantasy Pros 911 in the site's Premier League which should provide some fierce competition.

My buddy Troy Patterson has a great article up at Roto Savants in which he explains Hitting Sabermetrics for beginners. It's a really helpful article and you can read the whole thing here.

Our old pal Paul Singman is producing great articles at The Hardball Times. He's got an interesting new article up in which he discusses Replacement Level as it concerns catchers. Check it out here.

I'm also in the midst of The Dynasty Challenge draft over at MLB Front Office. It's a crazy league in which we are using real player salaries to form our rosters. It has been both fun and extremely frustrating but we'll have to see how it ends. You can follow our draft as we near the final rounds.

I'm also going to start gathering up some people for a 2nd Mock Draft. Hopefully I'll have some details for you this weekend. Stay classy.





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Mock Draft Analysis: Amateur Mixed 5x5, 2/6/09 (Pt. 2)

In the previous installment I took an in-depth look at the successes and failures of the squad I drafted in a recent public mock draft conducted through mockdraftcentral.com. In this second installment I’ll analyze what I perceive to be the 11 best selections made from other teams. (I like to make lists of 11 instead of 10 because 11 is my favorite number.) These picks were great because they demonstrated a fine ability to anticipate the direction of the draft and snatch up high-quality talent that, for whatever reason, has been flying under the radar. And who knows, these guys may prove to be valuable sleepers for your leagues.

To see the full draft, click here.

11 Best Picks:

-Nate McLouth – R5 P7: Refer to my recent article for more detailed info, but to get a 20/20 guy with a legitimate shot at 100 runs and RBI in the middle of the fifth round is a fabulous pick.

-Curtis Granderson – R5 P8: Taken right after McLouth, this is another potent outfield weapon for the fifth round. Missed some time last year and suffered in many stats, but has a good shot of returning to form in ’09.

-Adam Dunn – R6 P12: One of the best power options in the game, but always gets taken so far after Howard. His value could rise a lot more depending on where he ends up.

-Joakim Soria – R8 P7: I was a bit surprised that he was the seventh closer taken, especially with Broxton and K-Rod going before him. Explosive young arm on an improving young team (even if it is still the Royals).

-Andre Ethier – R9 P5: For me, this was the steal of the draft. Read my profile on him for more info, but this guy has a lot of great potential. I really think he could be a top-ten outfielder, but you can get him for very cheap.

-Jhonny Peralta – R10 P9: Many are still not sold on him, but he’s proven to be a consistently solid power hitter, which is very valuable at his position.

-Raul Ibanez – R11 P1: An aging veteran with diminishing skills and horrible defense, but I don’t think he’ll fall completely off the map this year (I also profiled him recently). He should get an extra boost in the Phillies’ line-up, which makes him a great selection this late in the draft.

-J.J. Hardy – R11 P7: I’m very surprised that he fell this far. Most expected him to regress last year, but he continued to produce and appears to be the real deal. Along with Drew and Peralta, he’s in my second tier of shortstops.

-Randy Johnson – R13 P7: The first starter to make my list. The ageless Randy Johnson somehow manages to rack up strikeouts as well as anyone, so be happy if you can get such a legit power pitcher this late in your draft.

-Jason Giambi – R13 P12: He’s one of the last guys I’d expect to see on one of my “great picks” list, but a relocation to Oakland may be just what he needs. Will almost certainly get a healthy dose of playing time assuming good health, and this could be a healthy dose of mid-round power for your team.

-Chien-Ming Wang – R18 P4: I’ve never been completely sure why this guy falls so far in drafts, but he’s more than a rotation filler at this late in the draft. With good health, he’s a safe bet on a good win total, at least.

So there you have it. Please feel free to leave any thoughts you have, whether they’re your favorite picks of this draft or how stupid I am for thinking so-and-so’s a good pick. Next up: the final installment, detailing the 11 worst picks.

-John Dorhauer

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New A-Rod Article at 3-D Baseball

Hey guys, I just wanted to invite you to check out a new article I just posted at my family's blog - 3-dbaseball.net (as well as the other great stuff my dad and brother have posted recently, if you haven't already). It's an editorial piece that examines our moral obligations as fantasy owners regarding the recent news linking A-Rod and steroids. It's a very endearing issue to me, as I'm sure it is with, and I'd love to get your feedback and hear your opinion on the matter. You can access the article by clicking here.



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Mock Draft Analysis: Amateur Mixed 5x5, 2/6/09 (Pt. 1)

I recently participated in my second mock draft of the offseason, courtesy of the folk at mockdraftcentral.com. I did this on a whim, so I have no idea what the other people’s skills or strategies were going to be. Nevertheless, I had a few specific goals that I took with me into the draft. For the first few rounds, I wanted to draft five-tool guys who didn’t necessarily excel in any particular category. I also wanted to build a solid outfield in the early stages of the draft. Finally, I wanted to draft saves early, as this was something I missed out on in the BTPF expert mock I did a number of weeks back. These aren’t necessarily strategies I would incorporate in an actual draft, but mocks are meant to experiment. It’s also worth noting that I intentionally selected a later draft position (10th of 12). For the BTPF draft I was in the first half, and it’s a completely different game when you’re picking at the end of the first round. Below is my roster, which will be followed in this first part by a critical analysis of my team. In the second and third installments I shall list what I think were the 11 best and worst picks of this particular mock.

Without further ado, here’s my roster:

C  Matt Wieters        R10 P3 
C  Dioner Navarro      R21 P10 
1B  Kevin Youkilis     R4  P3 
2B  Ian Kinsler        R1  P10 
SS  Stephen Drew       R8  P3 
SS  Mike Aviles        R16 P3 
3B  Alex Gordon        R14 P3 
3B  Jorge Cantu        R15 P10 
OF  Carlos Beltran     R2  P3 
OF  Nick Markakis      R3  P10 
OF  Milton Bradley     R13 P10 
OF  Denard Span        R17 P10 
OF  Luke Scott         R18 P3 
OF  Travis Snider      R23 P10 
SP  Dan Haren          R6  P3 
SP  Francisco Liriano  R7  P10 
SP  Jon Lester         R9  P10 
SP  Clayton Kershaw    R19 P10 
SP  Joe Blanton        R20 P3 
SP  Kenshin Kawakami   R22 P3 
RP  Jonathan Papelbon  R5  P10 
RP  Carlos Marmol      R11 P10 
RP  Brian Fuentes      R12 P3 

All in all, I was relatively disappointed with my team, although I felt like I learned a bit from the draft (which, really, is the goal). While I liked my first four picks – four guys that I feel are pretty good five-tool guys (OK, Youk and Markakis may not be legitimate base stealing threats, but I still consider them well-rounded players) – I definitely fell short with my outfield. And in regard to saves, I was happy to get Papelbon (maybe went a little early with this pick, but I’ll explain that more in a minute), and I think Marmol was a bit of a steal for the 11th round. Fuentes, on the other hand, was a mistake, and I’ll explain that in more detail later, as well.

Outfield Analysis:

I love Beltran and Markakis, and I wasn’t surprised to end up with them. I was hoping to pick up McLouth in the fifth round (about where he’s been going), but with a late fifth round pick he was taken a few picks ahead of mine. With no other outfielder I would’ve wanted in the fifth round, I decided to audible and take some saves then. So while I probably could’ve waited another round or two to pick a closer (Mo, Nathan and Soria were still there after my pick in the sixth round, and Soria didn’t go til the eighth), a sudden change in my strategy caused this pick.

In retrospect, I think I made a mistake picking Haren in the sixth round, at least in accordance to my strategy. I think Haren’s a great pitcher, but if I was looking to build up a strong outfield, I should’ve used this pick on someone at that position. I was hoping Dunn would’ve been around for my pick in the late seventh to boost my power, but he got drafted at the end of the sixth round. Because of this, I also didn’t draft an outfielder with my seventh/eighth round picks.

This happened to me one more time, when I was hoping to get Ibanez in the eleventh round. He got drafted at the beginning of that round, though, and I used my next two picks on pitchers like I did after missing out on McLouth. So even though I was looking to build a strong outfield, I waited til the thirteenth round to take my third outfielder. I also ended up with Luke Scott as my fifth outfielder, which I wasn’t happy with. The important lesson from this is that I need to anticipate picks better, but I also need to have contingencies that fit with my plan in the event that my first choice isn’t available anymore.

Good Picks That Were Made Too Soon:

In case you couldn’t tell from some of my player profiles, I’m big on finding guys who most people tend to undervalue. The tricky part with this is that it’s hard to know exactly when to take these guys, since I assess them as having greater value than most would. The first instance of this occurred in the eighth round, where I selected Stephen Drew. Drew belongs in my personal second tier of shortstops, which also includes Jhonny Peralta and J.J. Hardy. From those of you who read my article about the importance of the second tier, you know that I feel that it benefits you to wait as long as you can before taking these guys. If they’re all in your second tier, the only thing that matters is that you get one of them. This was probably my biggest mistake of the draft – even though Peralta and Hardy were still on the board, I took Drew while I still had three outfield slots to fill. Peralta didn’t go until round ten, and Hardy stayed on the board til the eleventh, so there was no need for me to take Drew this early.

The other two picks I made that fit under this category involve young players whose values are still very much in question. I took Wieters in the tenth, and I’m curious if I could’ve waited a little longer on him. Doumit, who’s another valuable catcher that usually goes later in drafts, was already off the board, so I didn’t want to wait too much longer to pull the trigger on a good catcher. Seeing as how two other catchers (Posada and Iannetta) were taken before it got back to me, this may have actually been the right time to take Wieters. One interesting thing, though, is that three teams waited until the last three rounds to take both their catchers. Had I known this, I maybe would’ve waited a little long to take my first backstop.

The other guy is Denard Span. My brother Adam got me turned on to D-Span, and I think he’s a guy that will bring you some great speed and lots of runs (as the lead-off hitter in a potent Minnesota offense) late in drafts. Because he’s flying pretty far under the radar, though, it’s almost impossible to guess where to take him. I got him in the seventeenth, but I maybe could’ve waited a couple more round to get him. Especially since I was so thin on outfielders and speed, though, I didn’t want to take any more chances in this particular case.

Other Disappointing Picks (For Various Reasons):

I wasn’t nuts about having Gordon as my starting third baseman. I think his numbers show promise, but like most, I’m not sold yet that this will be his breakout year. I was hoping to get a third baseman earlier, but like with my outfielders I didn’t do a great job of anticipating these picks. Third base seems to be surprisingly thin, and I think it might be the toughest position to draft this year. I did manage to get Cantu, though, which would give me some good power off the bench.

I also wasn’t crazy with my starting pitchers. I like Haren, and I think that Lester was a pretty good pick for when I got him, but I probably went a little earlier than I should’ve on Liriano. There’s also too many questions surrounding my back-end guys. The good thing about starters is that it’s a pretty deep pool, so sometimes you can get away with taking more chances here. And with pitchers being so susceptible to injuries, many people avoid putting too much stock in the big-name guys. So who knows, it may not hurt me all that much.

Regarding the “mistake” I was talking about with Fuentes – each selection in this draft got 45 seconds, which was less time than I was used to. There were a couple of picks where this threw me off: Liriano was a pick that I rushed to make one in time, and Fuentes was actually auto-selected for me because I missed the timer. If he gets to closer role for the Angels, he could be worth this selection, but it’s still too early for me to make this pick right now.

Conclusion:

Hopefully you’ve learned from this write-up what I learned from this mock. I don’t know if I’ll stick with this strategy in the future, but hopefully I can do a better job of sticking to whatever strategy I have. I think the most important skill these mock drafts gives you is the ability to anticipate others’ picks in the heat of action, which I’m a little slow on right now. Up next: my list of the 11 best picks made by other teams.

-John Dorhauer

PS- you can view the entire draft by clicking here. For those of you who are interested, I’d recommend looking through and jotting down who you think were the best and worst picks so that you can compare them to my lists. I’d be curious to see where we agree and disagree.


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Matt Holliday – The Coors Effect

A perennial first- rounder has left the friendly confines of Coors Field to join the Oakland Athletics. He is also leaving behind a line-up that includes strong hitters like Garret Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki to join a line-up that includes... well pretty much no one. It will be very interesting to see how these factors influence his fantasy value in the upcoming season.



Splits

Over the past three seasons, Holliday has benefited greatly from playing in Coors Field. On the road he put up a strong but far from superstar line of .296/.370/.486, contributing 147 runs, 33 HR, and 120 RBI. At Coors Field he turns into Superman, posting a line of .361/.430/.669, allowing him to produce 199 runs, 62 HR, and 219 RBI. When you combine this with the fact that he is moving to a park that inflates the value of pitchers (hello Mr. Zito), not hitters, Holliday could be looking at a rough year.

Home Runs

Hittrackeronline.com has been a great tool to allow me to further analyze Holliday’s production. In 2008, his average standard distance (which assumes the ball was hit with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level) on home runs was 408.4 feet, compared to a league average of 391.3. His average speed off bat was 106.4 MPH, barely above the league average of 104.2. This shows that with all other factors being held equal, Holliday is certainly an above-average hitter, but far from the superstar he is made out to be. However, the most glaring stat is the number of “just enough” and “lucky” home runs that Holliday hit. In 2008, he was sixth in the NL with 11 “just enough” homers and seventh with 6 “lucky” home runs. This is even worse when you realize that he hit only 25 home runs, while other guys above him on the list include premiere power hitters like Ryan Howard and Ryan Braun. The percentage of home runs he hits that barely clear the fence or wouldn’t have even gone out with normal wind and weather is much higher than these other hitters.. A lot of swings that would have left Coors Field are going to settle into the gloves of opposing outfielders at Mcafee Coliseum.

Line-up

Last year, the Rockies posted a respectable total of 747 runs, while the Athletics were fourth from the bottom with only 646. While along with Holliday the A’s have added another power threat in Jason Giambi, he will not be surrounded by the same quality of hitters as in Colorado. He will therefore not have the same number of opportunities to drive in runs that he did in Colorado. I tried to find the number of at-bats he had with runners in scoring position and compare that with the number of RBI opportunities the equivalent batting slot in Oakland would’ve had last year. Unfortunately, I could not find that data, so if anyone knows a site where I could find that info I would be extremely grateful.

Conclusion

While Matt Holliday is certainly still a great fantasy option, he shouldn’t be going as high as he has in the past. If I am drafting late in the first round and early in the second you will not hear me calling out his name.


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One Up/One Down: Nate McLouth & Corey Hart

In my first installment of One Up/One Down, I profiled two pitchers who shared the connection of being teammates. For this one I will look at two players who have a more ambiguous connection: Nate McLouth and Corey Hart. Both are outfielders. Both play for teams within the National League Central division. But more importantly, both have pretty comparable skill sets and are perceived to have pretty equal value. They’re both valued for their rare blend of speed and power (both were 20/20 guys last year). Furthermore, according to mockdraftcentral.com, Hart is on average the 55th player selected (21st outfielder), while McLouth is the 57th player selected (22nd outfielder). So the question is this: who has more value going into 2009? Who’s up, and who’s down?

When you look at their point-getting offensive categories from 2008, McLouth and Hart seem to fit the bill as being very comparable players, with McLouth having a marginal edge in most categories:

         AVG  HR  R   RBI  SB
McLouth .276  26  113  94  23
Hart    .268  20  76   91  23

It’s important to note, though, that these stats are not simply fixed numbers that anchor players in time. Obviously, just because Hart hit 20 homers last year, it doesn’t mean he’s going to hit 20 next year. All statistics inevitably fit into some sort of trend, which can account for slumps/streaks (when looking at a few games) as well as development/regression (when looking at years of data). When you look back on their pretty short careers, McLouth seems to be in the midst of a development as a major leaguer, while Hart had a bit of a regression last year. By looking at some of their specific areas in more depth, we can see whether or not these trends are legit.

Power:

In 2008 McLouth posted an ISO of .221 (15th among outfielders), which was up from his 2007 mark of .201. On the other hand, Hart’s ISO of .191 from 2008 was significantly below his .244 from 2007. Another power stat in which McLouth is progressing and Hart is regressing, and one which is a little more telling of future output, is their ratio of homers to flyballs. McLouth’s HR/FB% rose from 9.8% in ’07 to 10.9% in ’08, while Hart’s fell in that same span from 13.0% to 9.9%. While McLouth’s increase logically matches age and talent development, Hart’s drop seems pretty troubling. You don’t expect to see that kind of a drop-off at his age, so anyone interested in drafting Hart should be wary of this.

Looking at each player’s spray chart from hittrackeronline.com seems to confirm McLouth’s upward trend, but it also seems to give hope for Hart’s future. McLouth’s average standard distance (ASD) rose only marginally, increasing from 387.7’ in ’07 to 389.2’ in ’08, but he showed a much greater ability of hitting homers to deeper parts of ballparks in 2008. He had only one homer between left-center and right-center in 2007 (between 67.5 degrees and 112.5 degrees on the spray chart), but he had seven such blasts in 2008. Furthermore, 4 of his 13 homers in 2007 had an ASD of at least 400’ (31%), while 11 of 26 reached that mark in 2008 (42%). Hart was no slouch in this department, though, as he still displayed significant power to all parts of the field in 2008. And while his ASD dropped from 401.0’ in ’07 to 394.1’ in ’08, his inside-the-park homerun that measured 248’ didn’t help his cause. If you take out that homer, his ASD actually increased to 401.7’. So while I am concerned about Hart’s power for next year, I don’t think there’s any chance that he plummets.

Plate Discipline:

This is the area where I think McLouth has the most decided edge over Hart. Take a look at their swing and contact rates from 2008:

        O-Sw%  Z-Sw%   Sw%   O-CT%  Z-CT%   CT%
McLouth 21.9%  56.9%  39.8%  77.1%  92.5%  88.4%
Hart    31.7%  74.2%  54.7%  54.5%  85.1%  77.0%

These numbers explain the differences in their averages: while McLouth’s rose last year, Hart’s fell significantly. And since you can’t hit for power, score runs or bring guys in if you can’t effectively manage your swing and your ability to make contact, this likely accounts for much of their other subsequent gains and declines. It appears to particularly be affecting their walk and strikeout rates. McLouth struck out far less last year (23.4% in ’07, 15.6% in ’08), and trigger-happy Hart is pathetic at drawing walks (only 4.2% last year!).

Both guys increased their swing rates and contact rates from 2007, but the differences in those increases are key. McLouth’s swing rate only rose slightly (38.6% to 39.8%), while his contact rate took a sizeable step forward (83.8% to 88.4%). Hart did basically the inverse – he swung significantly more (50.3% to 54.7%) and made contact only a little more (76.5% to 77.0%). Perhaps the most troubling thing about Hart is his propensity for swinging at bad pitches – his 31.7% in 2008 was pretty bad, but it was also 6 points higher than his 2007 mark.

Producing/Scoring Runs:

I’m basically talking about runs and RBI here, and McLouth had an advantage in these raw totals last year. (While I was surprised by this initially due to their lineups, I was equally surprised to find that the offenses of the Pirates and the Brewers were relatively equal last year, with the Brewers scoring just 15 more runs.) It seems as if McLouth’s supremacy here is legit as well, as he also has better marks in two of my new favorite categories: weighted runs above average (wRAA) and weighted on-base average (wOBA). Not to sound like a broken record, but McLouth witnessed increases in both categories (10.7 wRAA in ’07, 23.4 wRAA in ’08; .364 wOBA in ’07, .369 wOBA in ’08), while Hart regressed pretty significantly in both (23.5 wRAA in ’07, -.07 wRAA in ’08; .380 wOBA in ’07, .327 wOBA in ’08).

I originally thought that McLouth was benefiting from having Bay in the Pirates lineup, and I thought his splits would reveal a significant drop in August and September. While this held up for August (6 runs and 5 RBI in 84 AB’s), he easily bounced back for a monster September (24 runs and 17 RBI in 94 AB’s). So that idea fell through. Believe it or not, McLouth looks to be a legitimate offensive force that is here to stay.

Conclusion:

I’m not ready to say that Hart is going to be a complete bust next year, but I think it’s pretty clear that McLouth looks like the superior player right now. I think both could duplicate their 20/20 success next year, but Hart’s power appears to be far from a sure thing. I think McLouth has a clear advantage in the other three categories, though, as he will be a serious threat to break the century mark in both runs and RBI. And judging by their swing and contact rates, I don’t think Hart has a chance of matching the .280 BA mark that McLouth will likely reach. According to their current ADP, they’re both going in the middle of the fifth round. McLouth would be a steal at this place in the draft; Hart would probably be a bust. And using this as our context, I think we can safely say that McLouth is up, and Hart is down.

-John Dorhauer

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All-Sleeper Team

Every year people talk about the great list of keepers they have stashed away in a sock drawer that they think will win them their league. Here is a little list I have cooked up for your enjoyment. There is a couple guys that you could probably say shouldn't be considered keepers, so feel free to critique.



All-Sleeper Team

C- Gerald Laird – He’s now the starter in Detroit after splitting time in Texas. A good offence will surround him and he doesn’t have to worry about losing AB’s to Salty.

1B- Chris Davis – Will finally get to show what he can do over a full season.

2B- Aaron Hill – Completely fell off the charts after his concussion but should be back with a vengeance.

SS- Khalil Greene – He is out of Petco and into a stronger line-up anchored by Pujols. A huge improvement is on deck.

3B- Hank Blalock – Has the highest potential of any 3B you’d be able to get this late.

OF- Jay Bruce – He couldn’t sustain last year’s torrid start but still swatted 21 HR in 413 AB’s. Plus, he’ll only be 22 in April.

OF- Cameron Maybin – Went 16-32 in a late season call-up by Florida and looks to have control of the starting CF job. He should be an excellent SB threat.

OF- Adam Jones – He should continue to improve and will team up with Markakis to give the Orioles line-up a little punch.

SP- Fausto Carmona – A huge workload in ’07 came back to haunt him but he will bounce back this year.

SP- Jon Garland – A reliable innings eater who will improve his stats thanks to a switch to the National League.

SP- Javier Vazquez – The enigmatic Vazquez is worth a shot in the later rounds. He seems to have a great year or a terrible year. I am the least confident in him of anyone on this list.

RP- Grant Balfour – He was lights out for Tampa last year and should get the bulk of the save opportunities.

RP- Huston Street - Disappeared after Ziegler took over for him in Oakland but should play a major role in the Rockies bullpen.


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2009 Third Base Rankings

As always there are plenty of quality options at third base this year. There are a few new faces scattered in amongst the usual suspects. Safe to say that if you don't land yourself a reliable performer at this position that you could be left in the dust. It's one of the key positions in fantasy baseball and if you get stuck with a bum then you may find yourself in trouble.



1. Alex Rodriguez- Obviously. If you lock him up early you'll definitely secure yourself one of the most reliable players in fantasy. It will be an odd number year which seem to be his best years. Prediction: .309 BA 120 R 38 HR 125 RBI 15 SB

2. David Wright- Best power/speed combo player at the position. Still growing and learning and has yet to reach his potential. That's scary. He takes another step in that direction this season. Prediction: .305 BA 112 R 35 HR 121 RBI 20 SB

3. Evan Longoria- The next in the line of great third basemen. He showed me enough last year to solidify his status in these rankings. In the next few years he will be the best all-around third baseman in the league. We should see improvement in BA this year. Prediction: .284 BA 100 R 32 HR 102 RBI 13 SB

4. Kevin Youkilis- Added power to his game in '08 to the surprise of many. It will be interesting to see if he can reproduce those type of prolific numbers. Still a great hitter and 1B eligible as well which helps. Prediction: .319 BA 96 R 24 HR 112 RBI 4 SB

5. Aramis Ramirez- Solid and steady producer. Power numbers have been down the last couple of years but still a 25/100 guy every year. I think he has a bounce back year in the power department as well as BA. Prediction: .299 BA 105 R

6. Chipper Jones- Age and injuries are starting to catch up to him but still hits as good as anyone when in the lineup. His power numbers could start to see some more decline this year. Prediction: .339 BA 82 R 20 HR 79 RBI 5 SB

7. Jorge Cantu- Talk about comebacks that no one saw coming. Well I saw this one but not to the extent it was. Now that he's back he's here to stay. We'll have to see how much play he actually gets at 3B. Prediction: .286 BA 95 R 27 HR 101 RBI 7 SB

8. Chris Davis- The young stud of the Rangers came up and impressed many. He hit 17 HR in only 295 AB. He also had a very impressive .284 BA despite the many strikeouts. It will be extremely interesting to see what he can do in a full season. Prediction: .278 BA 84 R 27 HR 88 RBI 3 SB

9. Aubrey Huff- Nobody saw the kind of comeback that Huff displayed last year. The big question out there is if he can repeat it. The tough this is that there is no one behind him in the lineup to protect him. Prediction: .282 BA 88 R 26 HR 93 RBI 6 SB

10. Garrett Atkins- Reliable player but not sure he has much upside. I think he's plateaued. Still a very good run producer with a nice BA. Prediction: .288 BA 89 R 21 HR 94 RBI 0 SB

11. Mark Reynolds- We all know about the strikeouts but the power numbers are legit. He'll even swipe double digit bags which makes him even more valuable. Just make sure that you can even out the BA with another player. Prediction: .244 BA 83 R 30 HR 93 RBI 13 SB

12. Ryan Zimmerman- We just can't count on him right now. Injuries are adding up and playing time is not. Very talented but currently unreliable. If healthy could be a top ten 3B. My prediction factors in at least one stint on the DL. Prediction: .285 BA 70 R 18 HR 75 RBI 3 SB

13. Chone Figgins- The only third baseman that will get 30 SB which is unique. If he can prove healthy it could be close to 40. If you go with Figgins you need a either a power SS or very powerful OF to off-set the lack of power here. Prediction: .281 BA 80 R 3 HR 41 RBI 38 SB

14. Mark DeRosa- '08 was a career year for DeRosa but I'm not sold that he can repeat it again in '09. Still a solid hitter with position flexibility. Prediction: .282 BA 80 R 17 HR 84 RBI 4 SB

15. Alex Gordon- Is this the year that we see the breakthrough? I'm not sold that it is but I think we will see progression. Don't over-estimate his potential, you could get burned. Prediction: .283 BA 78 R 17 HR 76 RBI 11 SB

16. Adrian Beltre- Not a huge fan of the man but continues to put up nice power numbers. More of the same in '09. Prediction: .265 BA 77 R 26 HR 78 RBI 6 SB

17. Casey Blake- Steady and reliable hitter and always over-looked. Not flash but gets the job done. Could be a safer bet than Lowell and Encarnacion. Prediction: .287 BA 20 HR 82 RBI 5 SB

18. Mike Lowell- Looking more and more like an old man. Hip injuries are scary injuries and it's hard to call him reliable anymore. Still a very good hitter when healthy. Prediction: .280 BA 73 R 18 HR 75 RBI 0 SB

19. Edwin Encarnacion- Everyone thinks he's going to have a breakthrough year in '09 but I just don't see it. He swings and misses way too much and I'm not sure he's smart enough to adjust. What we've seen it what we're going to get. Prediction: .254 BA 76 R 24 HR 71 RBI 2 SB

20. Kevin Kouzmanoff- We finally saw the power potential last year but he went through prolific slumps as well. He was said to be a .300 hitter but we just haven't see enough consistency. I'm not sure we will this year. Prediction: .266 73 R BA 23 HR 81 RBI 1 SB

21. Melvin Mora- Given his performance last season he moves up this list. But at 37 years old it's unlikely that he can come close to these numbers. We could see a regression back to numbers of previous years. Prediction: .269 BA 75 R 18 HR 78 RBI 6 SB

22. Dallas McPherson- He's a shaky proposition but he could be a low risk/high reward type pick late in drafts. Should start at 3B this year but can he play consistently. Great power potential. Prediction: .261 BA 69 R 20 HR 77 RBI 4 SB

23. Hank Blalock- Somewhat of an enigma in that it's hard to predict his health and playing time at this point. If he can stay healthy and find consistent ABs then he shoots way up this list. Until he nails down a job he stays where he's at. .274 BA 69 R 16 HR 66 RBI 3 SB

24. Josh Fields- Has very good upside but not enough experience at the MLB level. He has 30 HR potential but he needs to develop his eye at the plate. Will have to compete for his job as well. Prediction: .248 BA 59 R 21 HR 63 RBI 2 SB

25. Troy Glaus- Things were looking good for Glaus until his latest injury. Now it looks like he could miss the first two months of the season. I hope he doesn't try to come back too early and end up back on the DL. If he can come back earlier he would move up the list. Prediction: .277 BA 61 R 16 HR 55 RBI

26. Ty Wigginton- Not a bad option but doesn't do much for me. He's also an injury risk and I'm seeing a down year for him. Prediction: .276 BA 53 R 16 HR 55 RBI 1 SB

27. Ian Stewart- Great potential but it's unsure how many ABs he'll get. He still is a great long term option at third and could push Todd Helton at 1B at some point this year. Prediction: .282 BA 50 R 14 HR 56 RBI 4 SB

28. Dayan Viciedo- A very intriguing player. At only 20 years old it's still unclear if he's ready to play with the big boys. However he has great power potential and will compete with Fields at 3B. Keep a close eye on him in Spring Training. Prediction: .281 BA 40 R 9 HR 41 RBI 5 SB

29. Joe Crede- A player still without a team but he's still a good player. He will always be an injury risk with the bad back but can still put up nice power numbers. We'll have to wait and see where he ends up. Prediction: .266 BA 60 R 18 HR 62 RBI 2 SB

30. Jed Lowrie- Will play SS but could get some time at 3B with Lowell likely to have a DL stint at some point this year. Not much power at all but a pretty good run producer. Prediction: .283 BA 67 R 6 HR 70 RBI 8 SB


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