Top 10 Most Surprising Pitchers

These are the most surprising pitchers to me over the first month and a half of the season. These are pitchers that most people had no idea that they would be where they're at right now. There are a few that look legit but there are some you might want to sell high on if you own them. Quick note: I left Cliff Lee off of this list because he is obviously the most surprising pitcher this season and there is no room for debate.

1. Ervin Santana- After a very impressive 2006 season Santana was very high on the young studs list. 2007 was a disaster for him when he completely lost all ability to throw the baseball. He was designated to the bullpen where he continued to struggle and looked as if he was on his way out of Anaheim. This year he got a second shot at the starting rotation due to injuries to Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey. The turn-around has been nothing less than, if I can quote Jim Rome...phenomenal. He's 6-0 to start the season and in 54 innings he has an ERA of 2.63, 0.97 WHIP, 45 K, and only 10 BB. He allowed 5 R and 9 hits in 5 2/3 IP in his last outing but his stuff is looking really good. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up.

2. Joe Saunders- He pitched decently in his brief stints with the Angels in the last couple of years and pitched well in big games when they needed him. I liked him more than most coming into the season and he was the first free agent pitcher I picked up. All he has done so far is win. His stats read like this: 6-1, 54 IP, 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 24 K, and only 14 BB. He isn't striking many hitters out but he's getting you good numbers in the three other categories. He's also gone 8 innings in 4 out of his 8 starts so far. The Angels aren't going to stop winning either so if he can keep the walks down like he has been, he'll keep getting wins.

3. Todd Wellemeyer- Who? Yeah, Todd Wellemeyer. The former Cubs' bullpen bust is now the no. 2 starter for the Cardinals and is stunning the fantasy world with his production so far. Coming into the season he hadn't had an ERA of under 4.00 in any season of his career. When you look at the stats and then you look at the name, your eyes will pop out of your skull. Check this out: 4-1, 55 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 47 K, with 19 BB. Can he keep it up? My guess is no. Although, the way he is going right now he's on pace for an All Star appearance.

4. Ryan Dempster- Who would predicted that the Cubs' shaky closer of a year ago would be putting up ace-like numbers in the starting rotation this year? Nobody. The Cubs' clubhouse comedian is putting up the best numbers of his career to start the season. On Thursday, Dempster went 8 1/3 innings giving up 6 hits and walking 1 while allowing 0 ER and striking out a career high 12 hitters. That brings his '08 totals to 5-1, 57 1/3 IP, 2.35 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 48 K, and 24 BB. He's also only given up 35 hits in his 57 1/3 IP. His fastball is humming, his sinker is off the table, and his curve ball is looking good as well. Unless he has a complete meltdown, it looks as if there is no stopping him.

5. Jair Jurrjens- The Braves' rookie was a sleeper going into this year's draft but this sleeper has awaken to being the Braves' most consistent starting pitcher. He's become a must start every week and looks like he could be a pretty good pitcher for the long term. He has outperformed many other rookie pitchers who were rated higher than him coming into the season. His numbers look like this: 4-3, 49 1/3 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 41 K, and 17 BB. The big question with Jurrjens coming into this year was if he was going to be able to get good strikeout numbers but so far he has shown that he can. Jurrjens is a blessing for the Braves as they have been looking for a young homegrown pitcher for quite sometime and it looks as if they finally got one.

6. Greg Smith- If you read my previous article on Smith then you know I really like this kid. He's got great mechanics, great poise for a young pitcher, and a good head on his shoulders. If the A's are smart they should hang onto this guy for a while. It looks like trading Dan Haren doesn't seem like a bad trade after all. So far Smith is 2-2, with 45 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 35 K, and 15 BB. The K numbers are legit and basically the rest of the numbers are as well. I predict nothing but good things to come for Smith and if you made the pickup this year, consider yourself lucky.

7. Dana Eveland- Also a part of the Haren trade, Eveland has been a big surprise as well. For some reason he's still available in a good percentage of leagues which is amazing to me. He makes mistakes but, what the hell, he's a rookie. Eveland is 3-3 on the season with 47 1/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 35 K, and 20 BB. I'll take those numbers from a rookie a month and a half into the season. Eveland is going to continue to make mistakes as he learns to pitch to major league hitting but the future is bright for him. As long as he limits those mistakes it should be a very good rookie season for him and will put him in contention for ROY.

8. Scott Olsen- Olsen is a guy who always has shown talent and was a very promising prospect. After his '06 season he has fantasy owners salivating at the opportunity to have Olsen a part of their squads for years to come. Then in '07...CRASH...that was Olsen's stock hitting the floor. He had a miserable season on and off the field and it looked like his once promising career was going to be a short one. He's really bounced back this season and is showing the promise that we saw in him from '06. His '08 stats: 4-1, 54 2/3 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24 K, and 21 BB. If he can bring down the walks a little and bring up the K's he could be a very solid no. 3 starter on any fantasy team. His '06 stats say he can strike hitters out with 166 K in 180 IP. You've got to love what you've got from him so far and he's got the potential to do even more for you.

9. John Danks- The White Sox have gotten very good pitching so far with the exception of Mark Buehrle and Danks is a big part of that. White Sox fans were a little nervous after they traded Jon Garland but Danks is making Kenny Williams look like a genius. The Sox have expected a lot out of Danks and this season he isn't letting them down. This season he is 3-3 in 46 IP with a 2.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP while striking out 35 and walking only 12. If the Sox can start giving him some run support he's going to keep getting wins. I like the potential here and I like him for the rest of the season and beyond. Here is yet another waiver wire pickup that is giving his owners visions of $$$$$.

10. Jose Contreras- Jose is quietly having a very good season. Many are skeptical of his ability to keep up his hot start but I have a feeling that he can keep it up for at least another couple of months. The 37 year old (you think?) is pitching betting than he has in 3 years and his screwball is down right filthy right now. Contreras' stats look like this: 4-3, 53 2/3 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 28 K, and 16 BB. In each of his last two starts he has gone 7 innings and only 1 ER in each. The Sox are depending on a good season from Contreras if they have any hope of making the playoffs. He's likely available in your league and my advice would be to pick him up if you need another SP while his stuff is going good. I'm not going to say that his numbers will read exactly like this at the end of the season but I think he will have his best season in years.

What do you guys think? Have a guy in mind that isn't on my list? Let me know!

Somethings Caught My Eye

Drafting a catcher is always a stressful part of a fantasy draft. You must either spend a top pick on an elite catcher, or get stuck with a mediocre one. Just so you know, I advocate drafting the "mediocre" catcher instead of drafting a V-Mart in the 3rd round. There's always the chance you get lucky with your pick, or you can simply add a valuable catcher from free agency that was overlooked in your draft. Right now two catchers fit the latter description and you should consider adding them if your current catcher situation isn't too peachy.

Dioner Navarro - Dioner was once considered a top prospect with the Yankees, but after unsuccessful major league stints from 05 and 06 many forgot about him. In 2007 the Devil Rays gave him a another chance, and man did he not take advantage of it. Come the end of July and Navarro was batting .190 with 3 home runs and only 21 Rbi in 273 plate appearances. For some reason, the Rays kept him as their catcher at this point in time, perhaps for a lack of other options, anyways the move (or lack of a move) worked out. Dioner finished the season with a bang, batting .294 with 6 homers and 23 Rbi (.835 OPS) in just the months of August and September. Despite the great finish, Navarro started 2008 in A+ ball, and after crushing that in 16 Pa's, he was summarily called up to the majors and has not looked back. His current line is .387Avg/.425 Obp/.467 Slg.

Chris Iannetta - Chris jumped onto the radar after a stellar 2006 season in triple-A. Coming into 2007 the Rockies wanted Iannetta to win the starting job over Yorvit Torrealba, but did not perform well in the majors and thus remained primarily the backup. However, so far in 2008 Iannetta has shown he's matured and ready for the big leagues. His current stats are .306 Avg/.371Obp/.581Slg (last night, before going 0-for-4, it was .328/.394/.621), which is much better than his competition Yorvit's line. As of now the two Rockies catchers are splitting time, but as Iannetta continues to hit and Torrealba continues to sink, expect Chris to garner more and more playing time.

If you drafted Jorge Posada, Kenji Johima, J.R. Towles, or Jarrod Salta...hia, then definitely check if Iannetta or Navarro are available in your league. Don't be surprised if at least one of these catchers is drafted much higher come next year's draft.

One Man's Treasure Is Another's Trash

Too often I read over/underachieving articles and a player hitting .390 is named. Now, if the writer can prove to me that the .390 hitter can keep that up (Chipper Jones honestly fits that description to an extent), then I must be reading a very interesting article. However, if the basic gist of the writer's "bold" comment is, "I fully expect a regression sometime in the near future." Wow, thanks for that. I'm going to add your blog to my favorites immediately because you just provided me with some serious insight.

Okay, putting my exaggerating sarcasm aside, I'm going to name some hitters that are playing decent, but according to their Contact%, Babip%, and HR/FB%'s, should be hitting somewhat worse. Basically these hitters are hitting to their expectations, but actually should be below them. Here are the players in no particular order:

Manny Ramirez is currently batting .304 with 8 home runs and a .937 OPS. I'd consider that pretty closer to his projection for 2008. However, don't be fooled into thinking he is actually hitting as well as he has in the past. His contact rate from 05-07 averaged at 80.25% and this year it sits at a below-average 75.78%. Manny is also benefiting tremendously from a super-inflated .370 Babip. While Manny has a history having a Babip above the league average due to a solid career LD% of 22.2%, his current 20.4 LD% does not justify his .370 Babip. Ramirez's HR/FB% is at 17.8%, a little below his career average, so this isn't factoring into his luckiness at all, if anything you would call him unlucky. (Note: Last year, Many's HR/FB% was 12.3%, extremely below his average, and that is what accounted for his disappointing total of 20 home runs, the lowest in 12 seasons.) Overall, Manny is someone who "I fully expect to regress in the future" but perhaps (hopefully) that was not so obvious to you before.

Next up to be exposed is Matt Kemp. Matt Kemp is having a nice year for himself so far. He's batting .313 with 3 home runs and 25 rbi. The average is there and the power isn't that bad considering he has 8 doubles and 2 triples. He is even getting recognized at Yahoo by Matt Buser in this article where Buser says, "Get this kid on your roster and keep him there." I, in all my expertise, totally disagree with Matt Buser. When I look at Kemp, I see a man with a laughable 69.29 contact%, a high .398 Babip, and an average 11.1 HR/FB%. The .398 Babip is acceptable considering Kemp has a ridiculous 31.2 LD%. However I looked at Kemp's career LD%'s in both the majors and minors, and he never had a percentage near that before. When the LD% regresses to his career average, so will his Babip and thus his other stats. Matt Kemp is still a talented young player, I just feel for now you should get this kid off your roster and keep him there.

Okay this article is getting pretty long, so I'll just give you some names of other players that fit the description since I feel you understand my methodology. Jeremy Hermida, J.D. Drew, B.J. Upton, and Ryan Church are all players I expect to regress. Perhaps in the next few days I'll make a similar article except with players who are performing decently but should actually be playing better.

Stats from Fangraphs, Hardball Times, Yahoo, First Inning

Book Review: The Last Real Season

The Last Real Season by Mike Shropshire is a hilarious look back at the 1975 MLB season. Shropshire, a former Texas Rangers beat writer, loads this book full of outrageous stories of afro donning, leisure suit wearing ball players as well as some laugh out loud personal adventures while covering the Rangers. This book is a tale of baseball before the free agency boom when the average player's salary was a measly $27,600, mere pocket change for today's players. In that sense, Shropshire claims the players of the '70s were more like your neighbor than a superstar and had more fun than today's millionaires.

Shropshire's dry, sarcastic wit is classic and he fills the book with humorous analogies along the way. Much of the book deals with Shropshire's pleasant conversations with then Rangers' manager, the free drinking and free swinging, unmistakable Billy Martin. Shropshire's buzzed analysis of the woeful '75 Rangers' season is nothing short of hysterical. The book also contains Shropshire's awkward encounters with the likes of Ben Hogan, Mickey Mantle, and yes, Chuck Norris.

The players drank after wins and after a losses, on the plane and before the game. Shropshire was right beside them carrying on as they did and tell us all about it. This isn't some Sunday School reading material. Shropshire doesn't pull any punches and tells it like it was. Girls, booze, pills, weed, and baseball...what a hell of a combination. Believe me, it makes for some entertaining stuff.

I would recommend this book for baseball fans of all ages...if you're over 18 of course. For the fans who remember those days it's like a stroll down memory lane and for those too young to remember it's a jolting reality check and a baseball history lesson. This is a book you're going to be telling your friends about. I can't count how many times my girlfriend asked me, "What the hell are you laughing at?" I would point to the book, she would roll her eyes, and I would keep on grinning.

Chris Mulligan

Fullfilling Potential

One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the young left fielder for the Chicago White Sox, Carlos Quentin. The former 29th overall pick of the D-Backs in the 2003 draft was a can't miss prospect after having a tremendous college career at Stanford and a very productive minor league career. In 2006, as a rookie with the D-Backs Quentin hit 9 HR and drove in 32 runs in 166 AB and looked like he was on his way to being a major league star. In 2007, he suffered some injuries and had himself a very disappointing season. When Arizona's outfield starting getting a little overcrowded they dealt him to the White Sox who were desperate to find a third outfielder to solidify their lineup. They got themselves a steal.

Quentin is off to an All Star type pace this season, leading the American League in HR with 9. He also has 29 RBI, 26 R, a .297 BA, and has also chipped in 3 SB. He has already outproduced himself from last year in 100 less AB. Quentin is hitting at a ridiculous rate as he is on pace for 40 HR and 130 RBI. The White Sox couldn't be happier with the bargain they got in Quentin. He's been their most consistent hitter and is carrying their offense as Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Orlando Cabrera, and Joe Crede continue to struggle. In his last four games, Quentin is 7-18 with a HR and 5 RBI.

While most people are likely surprised by the hot start of Carlos Quentin, I'm really not. I knew the guy had it in him the whole time. He was my sleeper pick of the year last year and I was upset he didn't produce up to his potential. Now, if you would have asked me at the beginning of the year if I thought that he would be leading the AL in HR at this point in the season I would have said "hell no". I'm just happy for the guy, winning a starting spot by producing and earning it. At the beginning of the season, White Sox fans were concerned about the left field position. Who was going to win it? When Quentin was getting the starts they were still worried. Can Quentin produce for the Sox? Well White Sox fans and fantasy owners can stop worrying about Quentin. Let's start worrying about the rest of that struggling, aging Sox lineup.

I Ain't Been Dropping Nobody

Ever been in the situation where you have to drop somebody, but you cannot find someone on your team you're willing to drop? You don't want them sitting so vulnerably in the free agent pool. You become afraid of having that player added by someone else and doing well for them. Well I have a trick that will decrease the chance of that player being added, so in a few days when you clear up a roster spot, you can add that player back.

After the player is dropped, the way most people will see he's available is through the list of recent transactions on your Yahoo league's homepage (I'm not sure how it works for espn leagues, or any other type). Therefore, to prevent this from happening, make enough random transactions so that the transaction involving the player you do not want added is off the list of recent transactions. The other people in your league might think your a moron after seeing your binge on seemingly insignificant transactions, but that's just because they cannot understand the ingeniousness of your actions.

Obviously, all somebody has to do is go to the players tab and they will see your player in free agency. But honestly, I've used this strategy myself and it definitely works. Think about how you add players to your team, and a majority of the time its probably through seeing a player someone else dropped or because some relief pitcher was just named a team's closer. Doing little things like this helps you win championships.

Note: this only works in leagues without waivers.

I'm Baffled By Fausto

If there's one pitcher I feel comfortable putting my finger on that they will regress, it is Fausto Carmona. The man somehow, despite pitching quite terribly, boasts a deceptive 2.95 era. He's pitching so bad that it doesn't even take any complicated indicating stats to figure out that Carmona is getting lucky. It's staring you right in the face and let me prove it to you.

I'm going to throw out two numbers: 6.75 and 3.38. I'll tell you right now that these numbers are his K/9 and BB/9. For a person with a 2.95 era you'd probably guess that he has a 6.75 K/9 and a 3.38 BB/9. Well, you would be wrong. Fausto Carmona is actually giving up almost 7 walks for every nine innings, while striking out only 3 batters through the same 9. Absolutely ridiculous. If there is a recipe for disaster, that is in it.

The one thing Fausto has going for him is his high groundball rate, which is the result of a supposedly nasty sinking fastball. His GB% is a sweet 67.4%, and even though groundballs do fall (or roll) for hits more than flyballs, they are more desirable because they can become double plays and also more-importantly cannot become a homerun. My theory was that the Indians infield has been playing stellar defense and that can explain part of Fausto's success. Well after checking the numbers, their infield has the 3rd worst RZR (revised zone rating) in the AL at .763, and the 3rd worst OOZ (out of zone rating) at 36. Perhaps the Indians decide to try on defense only when Fausto is pitching? Usually a groundball pitcher with a bad infield behind him is a bad combination. Fausto also has a 5.13 FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching) and all you really need to know from that stat is Fausto's era should be somewhere closer to 5.13 than 2.95.

Last year I found Carmona's success somewhat fluky and was skeptical of him coming into 2008. Right now I'm not sure if I can call myself wrong or right, but pretty soon I think I'll be right. If you own him on your team, for your own sake, trade him NOW!!! If your in a relatively uncompetitive league, there is probably a guy who will look at his 2.95 era and be willing to give you valuable stuff in return. The window to trade him for value, however, is closing fast with every subsequent start. My concern is that even the ignorant fantasy player might be able to identify him as lucky since his WHIP is glaring red at 1.79. Honestly, just get rid of him for any valuable player while you still can.

Stats came from the usuals: Yahoo, Hardball Times, Fangraphs

Verlander's Struggles Continue

My Cy Young pick for the AL this year is not looking so hot right now. In fact, he's looking down right pitiful. The Tiger's only quality fantasy pitcher has been anything but a quality fantasy pitcher so far in '08. Many people thought going into the season that this would be the year that Verlander established himself as one of baseball's elite pitchers. The only thing that he has established thus far is that he is on the verge of big time bust status. Verlander's latest attempt came tonight against the Red Sox where the Tiger's ace faltered once again. Verlander went 6 innings giving up 9 hits and 5 earned runs while striking out 5 and walking 1. This latest disaster brings his record to 1-6 on the season. Tonight's loss saw him give up 4 or more earned runs in 7 out of 8 starts giving him only 1 quality start this season. He isn't striking out hitters at the pace that most though he could/would. He has only 30 K in 49 IP so far on the season.

It's hard to say if Verlander's struggles are coinciding with the entire team's struggles or if his problems are his own. One thing is for certain, owners of Justin Verlander are at their boiling points with him. As of right now, he is showing no signs of breaking out of this mire. The best thing to do with him is sit him until he gets his act together. If you have to use him, you're going to have to pick and choose the best matchups for him. Some are wondering if he is going to break out of this poor pitching at all this season. I've got a feeling he is going to turn it around soon. How soon, I'm not sure but he better get it together by June at the latest. You can't drop him people. You used a very high pick in your draft on him and let's face it he's not Barry Zito. You've got to stick with him and ride out these awful times no matter how sick it makes you. If you're a religious person, I would suggest to break out the rosary beads. The bright side...he can't do much worse.

Adam Jones - Asleep On the Job

If you take a look at Adam Jones' Yahoo profile picture, it looks like he is mired in a disgruntled sleep. Besides falling asleep for photo shoots, Jones also appears to have developed a habit of falling asleep at the plate, which leaves the Orioles and the 8.9% of people that own him (espn leagues) disgruntled. Let's take a closer look at Adam LaMarque Jones' numbers to see if his vomit-inducing line of .274/.362/.636 will stick around.

Keep in mind that Jones is only 22 years old and is playing in his first full season, and therefore we will also be checking into his minor league numbers. Right now his BB% is a laughable 4.9%. It's incredibly difficult for a hitter to succeed with a 4.9 BB%, just ask Juan Pierre. I checked out Fangraph's newly added plate discipline stats to see what is happening during Jones' at bats. What jumps out after reviewing the data is that Jones is swinging at 52.5% of his pitches, a significant increase over the league average of 45.9%. Well, if your gonna swing at more pitches, you better make contact with more pitches. So far that is not the case as Jones is making contact when swinging 76.6% of the time, (compared to 80.8% lg avg) and when he's swinging at a pitch in the strike zone he's making contact a mere 81.3% of the time (88.2% lg avg). Clearly, Jones needs to change something with his plate approach because so far it is not working in the majors.

However in AAA last year, it was a completely different story. Jones had an eye-popping line of .382/.586/.968. He did have a low BB% last year as well, 7.9%, so obviously Jones is a Vlad Guerrero-type-free-swinger, but the difference between last year in triple-A and this year in the majors is that Jones actually hit the ball last year, and he hit it hard too.

Lastly I checked Jones' BABIP and LD% to see if he has been getting unlucky this season, and both were basically league average so Jones cannot blame luck for his troubles. Too bad, cause that would make things so much easier.

As far as your fantasy team is concerned, I think Adam Jones can remain a free agent unless your in one of those few leagues where he is owned. Still, I believe Jones to be a talented, young prospect who may just be going through adjustment issues. I'd keep an eye (and possibly an ear) turned towards Jones' direction for any signs of life, in which case I would seriously consider adding him depending on my outfield situation.

In the meantime, somebody tell him to WAKE UP!!!

Warning, Too Many DL Spots Filled

Players are getting injured at a record pace this season. Based on Baseball Injury Report numbers, baseball is on track to set the record for most DL stints for the second consecutive year. 180 players have already been added to the disabled list, and the estimated end-of-season number is 416 (from 2002-07 an average of 367 players landed on the DL). There are so many players getting injured that Behind the Plate has to dedicate entire articles just to injury updates. It's probably too late to change your league settings, so if your in a league with only one or two DL spots (hopefully not zero) you must learn to get creative with roster management.

Every situation is league-setting dependant and player dependant so I can't give you definite rules, however I can give you some tips to consider. Remember to have patience, and therefore do not drop valuable players who are only going to be on the DL for 15-30 days. If a pitcher goes on the DL and you have no DL spots available, its fine for the pitcher to sit on your bench. If the same thing happens with a hitter though, you have a tough decision to make. If the hitter is one of your worse ones, consider dropping him and adding a free agent hitter hopefully of comparable talent. If the unfortunate situation occurs where one of your best hitter goes down for a good month or so, decide if your least needed player or any players currently on your disabled list are expendable. One other option you have is to try and make a quick 2-for-1 trade, which will free up a roster spot (the injured player will then remain on your bench). Don't rip yourself off though. In H2H leagues when a hitter gets injured and you have no DL spots remaining, its not the worst thing to not have a shortstop in your lineup for 15-30 days. In roto leagues however, you cannot afford to keep a starting position empty.

If your lucky enough to be in a league with over 3 DL spots and you have DL positions to spare, stash a player like Mike Gonzalez on your disabled list, who you can keep for free while he's injured and later may become a valuable closer.

Hopefully you never have to deal with this.