Picking the right outfield in fantasy baseball is critical to success. If you have a sub-par outfield you will have trouble keeping up with other owners who have the big guns. I'm not saying that you necessarily need an all power hitter outfield at all. In fact I like to get my SB from my outfielders. However, you do have to have depth in your outfield. There is not a tremendous amount of quality fantasy outfielders out there, especially for 12+ team leagues or leagues with more than three starting outfielders. For those people it's going to be important to get at least two top 25 outfielders on your squad. About three or four years ago the depth of outfielders was significantly better than the last couple of years. However, there are still very good outfielders near the top and some quality ones you can get late in the draft or for very cheap in an auction. Let's break them down a little.
Top 40 Outfielders
1. Matt Holliday- COL -In the last two years Holliday has solidified his position as the best OF in the game. He hits for AVG, HR and RBI and will even swipe a few bases. He may not hit .340 again this year but will definitely be a mid to late first round pick. '08 Prediction: .330 BA 35 HR 130 RBI 10 SB.
2. Vladimir Guerrero- LAA -Still a dominant power hitter and intimidator. He'll get a little more protection this year with the addition of Torii Hunter to the lineup. The Angels should be a little better scoring runs this year. '08 Prediction: .325 BA 28 HR 125 RBI 10 SB.
3. Alfonso Soriano- CHC -He was hampered with a quad injury for the last half of the season and it may still be an issue. Keep an eye on the situation in Spring Training. If healthy he could reclaim his position as the top OF. '08 Prediction: .285 BA 38 HR 90 RBI 30 SB.
6. Carl Crawford- TB -Didn't put up the HR numbers last year that we would like to see from him but the RBI were still there. He will no doubt lead the AL in SB again this year. Look for him to add a few more HR to last years total. Make sure if you have Crawford to get more of a power hitter as your no. 2 OF. '08 Prediction: .310 BA 15 HR 80 RBI 50 SB.
7. Magglio Ordonez- DET -He had just a ridiculous year last year. Can he hit .360 again? Probably not but he can hit .330-.340 easy. Having a guy like Mags can allow you to go after a guy like Adam Dunn as your no. 2 outfielder. May even see a few more RBI from him this year with the additions that Detroit has made. '08 Prediction: .335 BA 30 HR 140 RBI.
8. Ichiro Suzuki- SEA -Dependable, reliable, you know what you're going to get every year. That is what makes him the no.8 OF. I definitely think he can hit .350 again this year and the Mariners should be contenders as well. '08 Prediction: .350 BA 10 HR 70 RBI 40 SB.
9. Carlos Lee- HOU -A powerhouse clutch hitter who can change the game with one swing. He's worthy of being your no. 1 OF and can even surpass his numbers from last year. Like Ichiro, you know what you're going to get from him every year. '08 Prediciton: .300 BA 35 HR 125 RBI 10 SB.
10. Lance Berkman- HOU -His 1B eligiblity makes him top 10. Oh yeah so does five years of 30+ HR. Berkman will continue to be the heart of the Houston lineup and continue to rake the ball. He got off to a very slow start last year which is uncommon for him. With a fast start this year his numbers should be even better than last year. '08 Prediciton: .285 BA 38 HR 115 RBI.
11. B.J. Upton- TB -He's 2B eligible still this year which increase his value. A value that is quickly rising to the top of fantasy baseball. He really suprised us all in his first full year last year at how quickly he lived up to his potential. Scary thing is that he is going to get better. '08 Prediction: .308 AVG 28 HR 100 RBI 30 SB.
12. Manny Ramirez- BOS -He can easily regain his status as a top 5 OF this season. He is in a contract year and has a lot to prove. Last season was a disappointment but this season is a fresh start for him. Look for big numbers this year. You can also get Manny in the early-mid fourth round and better use your third round pick. '08 Prediction: .310 BA 35 HR 120 RBI.
13. Curtis Granderson- DET -I think he shocked most people with his production last year. Many people were wondering if he could be a .300 hitter and put up power numbers like he did. It's his swing and not his strength that allows him to do it. Another guy in that Detroit lineup that could see an improvement in numbers. '08 Prediciton: .300 BA 25 HR 75 RBI 30 SB.
14. Adam Dunn- CIN - The only OF besides possibly Manny that can hit 40 HR. He's a BA killer put owners will sacrifice it for the HR and RBI. He's hit exactly 40 HR the last three seasons. How's that for consistent. More of the same this year. '08 Prediction: .250 BA 40 HR 110 RBI 8 SB.
15. Nick Markakis- BAL -The single shining star on the O's roster showed last season what people in Baltimore expected. He is able to put up good numbers despite the fact that their lineup is one of, if not the worst in baseball. Somebody give this guy a raise. '08 Prediction: .300 BA 25 HR 95 RBI 15 SB.
16. Alex Rios- TOR -Great looking young OF with potential for improvement. Toronto should have a pretty good lineup again this year and Rios is the centerpiece. Owners worry about his health and with good reason. If he can stay healthy for a full season the numbers could be ridiculous. '08 Prediction: .300 BA 25 HR 100 RBI 15 SB.
17. Eric Byrnes- ARI -He's one of my favorite players in baseball. He's constant %110 wreckless action and I love it. Showed some good pop last year to go along with his speed. His former employers are regreting ever letting him get away. '08 Prediciton: .285 BA 24 HR 85 RBI 45 SB.
18. Torii Hunter- LAA - I think the move to Anaheim will be beneficial for Hunter. The natural surface will prolong his playing days and productivity. I think he'll have fun roaming CF for the Angels and he will definitely love hitting behind Vlad. He is also playing for a manager that loves the SB. '08 Prediction: .280 BA 28 HR 100 RBI 20 SB.
19. Hunter Pence- HOU -I loved what I saw out of him last year. He will be a .300+ hitter most of his career and give you a little pop and speed as well. Keep an eye on Houston in Spring Training to see where he will hit in the order which could change his potential numbers. '08 Prediciton: .320 BA 22 HR 80 RBI 20 SB.
20. Nick Swisher- OAK -Last year was a let down for fantasy owners compared to the year before. Expectations are rising for him again because of the new ballpark and better hitting lineup. Will play CF for the White Sox but he is still eligible at 1B in most leagues. '08 Prediction: .270 BA 30 HR 100 RBI.
21. Vernon Wells- TOR -Nagging injuries prevented him from having another solid fantasy year last year. He got off to such a bad start that he could not climb out of the hole he dug for himself. He also had a lot of pressure to produce after signing the huge contract. Look for him to get back to the old Vernon Wells. '08 Prediction: .285 BA 28 HR 95 RBI 12 SB.
22. Brad Hawpe- COL -He's no joke, the guy can rake. He still has his doubters which is astonishing to me. Could pass the 3o HR mark this year and will get you 100+ RBI once again. Huge value which you can get in the 8th round or so. '08 Prediction: .300 BA 30 HR 110 RBI.
23. Hideki Matsui- NYY - As consistent as it gets when it comes to OF production. He gets a little bit lost in the shuffle with all the big names on his team but he is my favorite Yankee. He's getting up there in age but the guy is in tremendous shape and is built like a rock. Rock solid OF. '08 Prediction: .300 BA 25 HR 100 RBI.
24. Chris B. Young- ARI -He was highly touted coming out of the minors but he basically came out of nowhere and hit 30 HR last year as a rookie. He needs to be a more conistent hitter which will come in time. Solid no. 2 fantasy OF who will only get better. '08 Prediction: .270 BA 26 HR 75 RBI 30 SB.
25. Corey Hart- MIL- I would still like to see another season off good numbers under his belt before I jump at him but I think the potential is there for him to put up numbers like he did last year on a consistent basis. We'll see if he can match last years production this year. Can't go wrong with him as a no. 2 OF. '08 Prediction: .300 BA 22 HR 80 RBI 25 SB.
26. Bobby Abreu- NYY -Be careful with Abreu because not only are his HR numbers declining but so are his SB numbers. He'll still hit .290 or .300 and get 100 RBI. However, he's not the one time 5 tool hitter he once was and never will be again. '08 Prediction: .295 BA 15 HR 100 RBI 20 SB.
27. Jason Bay- PIT -Very disappointing '07 season for Bay but that was an abberation. We were all hoping the Pirates would deal him to a contending team but no such luck. I think he'll get back to 30 HR this year and re-establish himself as one of the games best power hitting OFs. '08 Prediction: .285 BA 30 HR 100 RBI 10 SB.
28. Jeff Francouer- ATL -His HR production dropped a little last year but he raised his BA almost 50 points. I think he will sit somewhere in the middle of those two categories. He's still very young and his power is tremendous. If he can't make consistent contact he could be a .300/30 guy. '08 Prediction: .285 BA 25 HR 100 RBI.
29. Shane Victorino- PHI -He's really a fun guy to watch play. He combines a little bit of power and a little bit of speed. Philly wasn't the same team without him in the lineup. He's got a full season under his belt and with 100 more ABs this year his numbers should show significant improvement. '08 Prediction: .290 BA 18 HR 70 RBI 30 SB.
30. Delmon Young- MIN -I thought he would have more HR than he did last year. It was a full season for him but it was also his first. He's got a great manager this year in Ron Gardenhire that always gets the most out of his players. Look for improvement in every category this year from Young. '08 Prediction: .300 BA 18 HR 100 RBI 15 SB.
31. Andruw Jones- LAD -He's been a .260ish hitter most of his career but I never thought he would hit .222 in a season. I don't expect he will again. He has the potential to move up much higher on this list but needs to prove he can make consistent contact. With that being said, I think he'll hit much better in LA with a fresh start. '08 Prediction: .265 BA 34 HR 100 RBI.
32. Juan Pierre- LAD -He's a consistent slow starter and usually ends up one of the top 3 hitters of the second half. Draft him but make sure you have a good backup to play in his place at the start of the season when he slumps. Will of course be one of the league leaders in SB. '08 Prediction: .290 BA 4 HR 45 RBI 65 SB.
33. Jeremy Hermida- FLA -He finally started to show some of his potential last season and lived up the hype a little bit. I think he can only get better from now on and he will be depended upon this year to be the team's power supply. I think he'll live up to the role. '08 Prediction: .290 BA 26 HR 95 RBI.
34. Matt Kemp- LAD -Wow. That's what I say when I watch this guy. Tremendous talent and could turn into one of the best players in the game. His developement was slowed by the Dodgers continued used of old has beens playing in front of him. He's earned his starter's role now and should continue his improvement. '08 Prediciton: .320 BA 23 HR 90 RBI 18 SB.
35. Jermaine Dye- CHW -His BA dropped significantly last year as did most of the other White Sox players' BA. Not this year. The Sox are primed and ready to go with a much improved offense that will rely on J.D. to put up the numbers that he is capable of. I love getting a guy with 28 HR in the 12th round. '08 Prediction: .275 BA 28 HR 100 RBI.
36. Ken Griffey- CIN -He holds us hostage with the constant threat of injury but when healthy he can still produce with the best of them. He's going to like playing for Dusty Baker and he still loves hitting in that ballpark. He's still got at least one more 30 HR season in him. '08 Prediction: .275 BA 30 HR 90 RBI.
37. Willy Taveras- COL -You'll get next to nothing from him in the HR and RBI department but that is to be expected with this guy. What you will get is an above average hitter with above average speed that can be a late round pickup that can help you considerably. '08 Prediciton: .320 BA 3 HR 40 RBI 40 SB.
38. Raul Ibanez- SEA -Always underrated and a consistent producer. Seattle has a chance to do big things this year and if they are going to they are going to need his usual production. Pretty consistent and not much of an injury risk. '08 Prediction: .285 BA 24 HR 105 RBI.
39. Aaron Rowand- SF -It's going to be tough for him to match his '07 numbers this year moving from a hitter friendly park in Phily to a pitcher friendly one in San Fran. However I still think he's a .300 hitter but he won't have the power numbers he did last year. '08 Prediction: .310 BA 20 HR 85 RBI 15 SB.
40. Kosuke Fukudome- CHC -The big Japanese free agent signee this year comes in with a lot of hype and a lot of haters. He competed with Matsui as the best power hitter in Japan before Matsui came over. A lot of "experts" don't believe he can live up to the hype. I think he can to a certain extent. Better than most people think. '08 Prediction: .300 BA 20 HR 90 RBI 10 SB.
Honorable Mentions
--Pat Burrell- PHI -Consistent 30/100 guy just misses the top 40. '08 Prediction: .265 BA 28 HR 95 RBI.
--Michael Cuddyer- MIN -Big let down last year, look for a bounce back season. '08 Prediction: .285 BA 22 HR 90 RBI.
--Johnny Damon- NYY -Another player who disappointed last year. He was hurt but the injuries are starting to linger with him. '08 Prediction: .285 BA 16 HR 80 RBI 25 SB.
--Josh Hamilton- CIN -Started off last year white hot then tapered off even after regaining his health. Big question mark but huge upside. '08 Prediction: .290 BA 23 HR 80 RBI.
--Josh Willingham- FLA -A bit of a disappoinment last year but the potential for big things is there. '08 Prediciton: .275 BA 25 HR 85 RBI.
--Justin Upton- ARI -2007 Minor League MVP will get the starting RF job for the D-Backs this year. Possible ROY that you can get in rounds 20 and on. '08 Prediction: .280 BA 18 HR 80 RBI 20 SB.
--Jacoby Ellsbury- BOS -Great contact hitter with big time speed. Very overrated in mock drafts so far. Don't over-value a two category guy. '08 Prediction: .320 BA 10 HR 60 RBI 30 SB.
--Josh Fields- CHW -Really not an OF but is eligible there. Has 30 HR potential and will likely be the starting 3B once Joe Crede is traded. '08 Prediction: .260 BA 25 HR 80 RBI.
--Michael Bourn- HOU -Will likely be the Astros lead off man and has 4o SB potential. '08 Prediction: .275 BA 5 HR 45 RBI 35 SB.
--Corey Patterson- BAL -Used basically for SB and has gone undrafted in many drafts so far. '08 Prediction: .265 BA 12 HR 55 RBI 35 SB.
--Adam Jones- BAL -One of the best young prospects in the game. Would have liked to see him stay in Seattle but that's baseball. '08 Prediction: .280 BA 18 HR 80 RBI 20 SB.
--Lastings Milledge- WAS -Potential to be a 5 tool hitter but needs a full season under his belt. Will finally get it this year. '08 Prediction: .285 BA 18 HR 80 RBI 25 SB.
--Moises Alou- NYM -At 40+ years old he is still one of the best pure hitters in baseball. Can boost your BA in a pinch. '08 Prediction: .320 BA 18 HR 75 RBI.
--Wily Mo Pena- WAS -Has 30 HR potential and will get another starting gig in D.C.. I think he can put up good power numbers. '08 Prediction: .270 BA 25 HR 80 RBI.
Wow, that is a long and tedious production. I didn't break down the players as much as I would like to but I will be doing pieces on some of these individuals throughout spring training. If you have any questions about any of these guys or about some that I did not list, feel free to email me anytime. mailto:cmulligan@behindtheplatefantasy.com Check back soon for the Starting Pitcher rankings.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
2008 Outfielder Rankings
4. Carlos Beltran- NYM -It seems like he has quietly putting up big numbers the last two years. These are numbers that he should put up every year and can even improve on. He's is the cornerstone of the Mets offense and no question a no. 1 OF. '08 Prediction: .280 BA 35 HR 125 RBI 25 SB.
5. Grady Sizemore- CLE -He's one of the best OF in the game and I don't even think he's reached his potential yet. I believe he can be a 30/30 guy in the next couple of years. Look for him to go in the late second-early third round. '08 Prediciton: .285 BA 28 HR 90 RBI 30 SB.
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