Monday, February 11, 2008

2008 Third Base Rankings

The 3B position is deep as usual this year. In some cases you could even wait until the last round to get your 3B. I wouldn't advise you to do that but it is conceivable. Typically you want a heavy hitting power guy as your third baseman. The top 5 or 6 guys will be a significant cut above the rest in the power department. As I said before, you can get a good 3B late in the draft but the guys you get there would be better suited to be your CI or backups than your starter. Personally, I like getting a top 5 3B. They top guys can give you a considerable advanatge than the others can in your BA, HR and RBI categories. For CBS Sportsline H2H players, you really want a HR hitter at 3B that can bring you 30-40 points a week. Having said all of that, if you miss on your top 5 3B there are good quality third basemen that you can get in the middle rounds like Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell and Alex Gordon. Obviously the top 5 guys are going to be gone within the first 2 or 3 rounds. However, the gap between the top 5 3B and the rest in more considerable than the top 5 at other positions and the rest that follow. 3B is my favorite position in fantasy and I believe a good 3B will help you on your way to a championship. Now, let's break 'em down.

Top 15 Third Basemen

1. Alex Rodriguez- NYY -Obviously. The best fantasy player in the game. If you don't take A-Rod with the #1 pick in the draft then you f'd up pretty bad. Even if you hate him (as I do) you can't pass him up. He fills every category which is hard to get. Even if he doesn't put up numbers like last year, he is still worthy of the #1 pick. No brainer. '08 Prediction: 130 R .300 BA 45 HR 130 RBI 20 SB.

2. David Wright- NYM -He's one of my favorite players in the game. He's a 24 year old phenom who can do it all. His potential seems limitless. He's another guy that just fills categories to the brim. He's a top 5 overall pick so most people won't have a chance at him. If you get him, you won't be sorry. '08 Prediction: 120 R .300 BA 30 HR 115 RBI 25 SB.

3. Ryan Braun- MIL -Very simple why I have him ahead of Miggy. In 450 AB last year he hit 34 HR drove in 97 and stole 15. Add another 150-200 AB and imagine the possibilites. He is also about 50 lbs. lighter than Cabrera which help in durability. He is my new favorite fantasy player having picked him up last year the day the Brewers called him up and he lead me to a championship. Can't lose drafting him. '08 Prediction: 120 R .320 BA 45 HR 120 RBI 20 SB.

4. Miguel Cabrera- DET -Your prototypical power hitter. He can mash the ball with what seems as an effortless swing. He's moving from a big ball park to another big ball park so power numbers won't be effected by the move. He may get off to slow start due to acclamating to AL pitchers but numbers should be above average. He also gets to hit in the middle of the best lineup in baseball. '08 Prediction: 110 R .315 BA 40 HR 120 RBI.

5. Garrett Atkins- COL -The most unheralded of the top 5 3B, he has put up back to back monster seasons. He is a big part of a very formidable Rockies lineup and in a hitter friendly park. He could be a cornerstone of your lineup for years in keeper leagues. He's another guy that you can't lose if you pick him. '08 Prediction: 100 R .315 BA 25 HR 110 RBI.

6. Aramis Ramirez- CHC -He had a little bit of a down year in the power department last season. That won't happen again this season. He could easily put up numbers as good as Cabrera and better than Atkins. Where you can get him in the draft is hard to say. He can go as early as 3rd round and as late as 6th round. By the way, I think he can hit .300 again this year too. '08 Prediciton: 115 R .300 BA 35 HR 120 RBI.

7. Chone Figgins- LAA -If you like SB he is your man. I personally prefer my 3B to hit for power but you can get an edge on SB if you take Figgins as your starter at third. You will be the only one who is getting those kind of SB numbers from that position. Also check his eligibility at other positions. His value is higher than most people suspect. He has even suprised me. '08 Prediciton: 95 R .315 BA 7 HR 55 RBI 55 SB.

8. Chipper Jones- ATL -If he could stay healthy like he did for the most part last year you could see similar numbers. Downside is he rarely stays healthy these days. He's one of the greatest hitting 3B of all time and still one of the best today. If you take him make sure you've got a good backup plan or you'll be struggling trying to find a 3B on the waiver wire. '08 Prediction: 90 R .315 BA 27 HR 95 RBI.


9. Mike Lowell- BOS -Solid, reliable, consistent. All of the above. Having regained his status as a quality fantasy player, Lowell has mashed the ball. He's a guy you can get in rounds 10-12 and get you numbers comparable to guys like Zimmerman and Jones who are gone by the 6th round. '08 Prediction: 95 R .320 BA 20 HR 100 RBI.
10. Ryan Zimmerman- WAS -He is one of the best young 3B in the game and has the potential to be a .300/30/100 guy. This is part of the reason that he is overrated. He is one of the biggest question marks in fantasy baseball. For that reason, I'm going to stay away from him this year. I like his potential but I want him to prove to me that he is healthy and ready to hit like he can. '08 Prediction: 90 R .275 BA 24 HR 90 RBI.

11. Alex Gordon- KC -He is the ray of hope for the Royals and for fantasy owners who miss out on the top 10 guys. His hype last season was enormous enough that nobody could have lived up to it. With a full year under his belt expect him to get closer to his potential. He's also a good 3B that you can get right around the same time as Lowell. He's also 1B eligible. '08 Prediction: 90 R .280 BA 24 HR 85 RBI 20 SB.

12. Adrian Beltre- SEA -Not one of my favorite fantasy players but can get you respectable stats from the 3B position. He's a ridiculously streaky hitter but when he is hot it's hard to get a ball past him. Like Gordon he can get you a few SB from 3B as well. Will never come close to his monster year but decent numbers. '08 Prediction: 90 R .270 BA 25 HR 95 RBI 15 SB.

13. Josh Fields- CHW -Not the most content player in the majors, he hates being in the spotlight but he'll deal with it and fantasy owners will too. He's got 30 HR potential but I feel he'll never get his BA in the .280s. I'll take 25 HR this late in the draft though and so should you. '08 Prediction: 80 R .270 BA 25 HR 85 RBI.

14. Edwin Encarnacion- CIN -He's been a fantasy sleep for the past two years and for the previous one and a half years he was asleep at the plate. He busted out in the second half last year and finally put up numbers that owners had been waiting for. I expect him to continue to build on his good second half from last year. '08 Prediction: 85 R .280 BA 22 HR 90 RBI.

15. Kevin Kouzmanoff- SD -Here is my sleeper of the year, and he shouldn't even be a sleeper but I guess he is. Horrible first half of last year, amazing second half. Will play more like he did in the second half. Don't forget he was a blue chip prospect in the minors. He's finally playing like one. '08 Prediction: 85 R .290 BA 24 HR 90 RBI.

Honorable Mentions

--Mark Reynolds- ARI -In his rookie year he hit .279 with 17 HR in 366 AB. He'll start from the get go this season and his numbers project pretty good in a full season. '08 Prediction: .285 22 HR 80 RBI.

--Troy Glaus- STL -If he can stay healthy for once, he could hit 35 HR. My guess is he won't. I would stay away from him. He's worth taking a chance on as a backup late in the draft. If he has a good start he could be used as trade bait. '08 Prediction: .270 AVG 24 HR 75 RBI.

--Hank Blalock- TEX -I'm staying away from this guy too. I know he was hurt most of the season but even when he played he showed a considerable drop in power. He had a pretty serious injury, let's wait and see how he recovers. '08 Prediction: .290 AVG 15 HR 75 RBI.

--Joe Crede- CHW -I know he's coming off of back surgery but I like Crede this year. Unlike Blalock, Crede was on the rise before his injury showing good power numbers. Not sure where he'll fit in Chicago this year but if he doesn't get traded, my feeling is he'll start at 3B. Wait and see what happens with that but if when he plays, he'll put up good numbers. '08 Prediction: .280 25 HR 85 RBI.

--Scott Rolen- TOR -He's risky just like Glaus and Blalock but I like his upside more. First off, Rolen is plain and simple a better hitter than either guy and has a shorter track record of injuries. I also like him in the Toronto lineup but the artificial surface won't help his body. Decent season for him though. '08 Prediction: .295 AVG 20 HR 85 RBI.

--Casey Blake- CLE -Blake is rarely owned in mixed leagues but serves as a servicable backup when needed. He likes getting off to a hot start too. He could help you early in the season or in a pinch. '08 Prediction: .275 AVG 18 HR 75 RBI.

--Evan Longoria- TB -Rookies are always tricky. Lots of hype surrounding this kid. Lots of hype surrounded Alex Gordon last year too. I'm not saying he won't be a good player but maybe not this year. Maybe worth a pick in keeper leagues. If he goes undrafted keep and eye on his progress. '08 Prediction: .280 15 HR 65 RBI.

--Eric Chavez- OAK -Well its obvious that he'll be injured at some point in the season. I stay away from him altogether. Can serve as a backup if your starter goes down with an injury but thats about all I'd use him for. Some poor schmuck will draft him. '08 Prediction: .260 AVG 17 HR 70 RBI.

--Akinori Iwamura- TB -He'll move to 2B this year but will still be eligible at 3B. A lot of people don't like him much and consider him an AL only option but I think he has potential. The Rays should have a decent lineup this year and he can score some runs and steal a few bases for you. He's one of my little sleepers this year. '08 Prediction: 100 R .295 BA 12 HR 60 RBI 25 SB.

--Ty Wigginton- HOU -You know what you'll get from him. Dependable backup or good CI or MI. Hits in a good Houston lineup in a small park. '08 Prediction: .280 AVG 22 HR 75 RBI.

So 3B is deep as usual. Lots of good players you can get late. The things is, all or most of these guys will go in the draft so you should get a backup too. Some of these backups can be used as Utility/DH hitters too and help you out. Really if you don't get one of the top 8 or so guys you're going to be a few steps behind the guys who did. Check back for the OF rankings and some other stuff I have in store. Good luck.

1 comments:

Patrick DiCaprio said...

Hey Chris, I think you are a tad optimistic on Braun. He won't repeat his BABIP from last year, and he has no minor league track record to support his production last year. He may repeat, but to count on it over Cabrera is very risky. I just had this very discussion with Lenny Melnick, who didn't have Braun in his top 20.