Wednesday, March 19, 2008

My Top Overrated and Underrated Players

As in every draft there are overrated and underrated players this season. Some guys develop into sexy names that everyone wants a piece of and not so sexy names that become steals. The thing about it is that you want to try to stay away from names period. You look at the stats and where the player is in his career. There are a lot of players that are very young that are overvalued every draft and the proven players are left there late. I'm going to lay out for you some the player's draft trends that I've seen recently and some I've seen all season long.

Overrated


1. Russell Martin-C-LAD- For whatever reason people still draft catchers in the 1-3 rounds. First of all, as a catcher for 12 years let me tell you, catchers wear down during the season and in the long term. Martin is going to have a hard time producing the numbers he did last year. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy. However, I would never pick him in the first five rounds. Use that pick to get a 30 HR guy who will get you better numbers than Martin across the board. Besides the top four catchers, everyone else is nearly the same. Get better numbers at a stronger position and get the edge there.

2. Bobby Abreu-OF-NYY- I don't know if it's because he's a Yankee but the guy is still being drafted in the first five rounds this year. To me it's amazing. The guy is clearly on the down side of his career and still gets picked in the fourth round. To think that he can get almost 100 RBI and steal 25 bases this year is a stretch. I like Abreu but I like him in the 7th or 8th round. This may be the last semi-productive year you get out of him.

3. Clay Buchholz-SP-BOS- I love his potential for the future but he won't do much this year. Yet, people keep drafting him in the 10th or 12th round thinking he will win 15 games. It's just not going to happen. It's looking more and more like he'll start the season in Triple A. Please don't waste a pick on Buchholz when you could have had Matt Cain, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, James Shields or Yovani Gallardo.

4. Evan Longoria-3B-TB- Again, the future is bright as hell for this guy too but probably not this year. Look at how Alex Gordon struggled last year after people wasted a 12th round pick on him. Don't do it again this year. It now looks as if he'll start in Triple A as well. I'd much rather get a guy like Alex Gordon this year or Josh Fields, Edwin Encarnacion or Kevin Kouzmanoff. These are young players with at least one year of big league ball under their belt and who will all improve this year. They are also assured starting jobs, something which Longoria does not have and you can get them around the time Longoria goes or even later.

5. Daisuke Matsuzaka-SP-BOS- I try to stay away from Dice-K when I can. The reason being is because he basically only gets you two categories. People are depending on him to get his ERA and WHIP down but I'm not sure how much he is going to improve those stats. So in the 8th or 9th round people are drafting a guy who will only get W's and K's. I just don't see the logic, you tell me. It's too early for me in the draft to start blowing my ERA and WHIP.

Underrated

1. Manny Ramirez-OF-BOS- The only reason I'm not drafting him in the 2nd round is because I know I can get him in the 3rd or 4th. After one injury hampered season people are avoiding him. He has 2nd round worthy potential that he will most likely to get back to this year. If you get a shot at getting him, take it. I don't think Manny plans on disappointing two years in a row.

2. Joe Nathan-RP-MIN- He has one of the best ERAs and WHIPs in the league yet he is getting passed by round after round. I know the Twins are going to have hard times winning games this year but so did the Nationals last year and Chad Cordero was still able to get 36 saves. Nathan will help you in four categories and you can't get him later in this year's draft than the last few years. I think he is a steal this year.

3. Alex Gordon-3B-KC- I really think Gordon can get 20/20 this year and hit about .280 for you and you can get him in the 10-12 rounds. Due to such a deep 3B position, most people are not looking at Gordon to be their starting 3B and he drops down the board. He can also fill in at 1B in a pinch. Gordon is only going to get better and don't be surprised to see him bust out this year because I told you so.

4. Rafael Soriano-RP-ATL- For years the Braves have struggled with trying to find the right guy to close out games. I think they finally got it in Soriano. For years he has been one of the league's best setup men and now he'll get the chance to close games full time this year on a good team. Soriano can be had in about the 13th round and I think it's a huge bargain. He'll keep the ERA and WHIP down and maybe get you 35 S from a mid round pick. You could do a lot worse.

5. James Loney-1B-LAD- The more and more I look at Loney, I think he's a great pick. I think he's the perfect CI or Utility player for your team and if you want to wait until the 11th round to get a 1B you can get him there. I think he can hit over .300 20 HR and 85 RBI this year which is not bad for where he's going. People might be upset if they ended up with him as their starting 1B but if you got him in the 12th round your should be happy as hell.

Oh man, don't get me started on overrated, underrated. I could go all day. There are plenty of others that belong on these lists but these are the top guys I see this year.

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