The game of baseball is changing. Not too long ago when top prospects were called up, they were allowed to struggle at first. The transition from triple-A to major league ball was considered difficult and if players did not perform well in their first mlb season, it was seen as okay.
Today however, the game is very different. Touted prospects are expected to perform at the major league level immediately when called up. Now, of course if they struggle no one is really that disappointed, (see Alex Gordon last year) but enough prospects nowadays do put up good numbers when called up that struggling rookies are more quickly criticized.
I took a look at the numbers Rookie of the Year winners put up to see the increase over the years. From 1985-96, the average stats put up by a ROY was a .282 average, 16 homers, and 71 rbi. From 97 to 07, the average was a .293 average, 22 home runs, and 81 rbi; showing significant increases across the board. I will acknowledge that we are comparing players from different eras and that is probably responsible for part of the increase, but I feel it is safe to conclude touted rookies have indeed started playing better.
So we've concluded that prized prospects today are more productive than their counterparts of 10-20 years ago. What does this mean for your fantasy team? It means you can no longer ignore adding players being called to the majors that are raking in the minors. Too many of them can become valuable fantasy contributors to pass up.
If you are a fan of the 3 year experience or 26-27 year old hitter rule, you cannot stick as strictly to it anymore. For the majority of mlb hitters, I say it is a good, simple rule to be guided by. However I'm talking about the best of the best minor league players, not just some injury fill-in guy. These guys have the potential to produce and often enough they convert that potential into actual production ─ and it could be for you.
Perhaps you did not take a chance on Evan Longoria this year. Maybe you would have added Max Scherzer if it weren't for that guy who checks the league 5 times a day and woke up at 3:30 in the morning to add him. I'm not asking you to be that guy, but rather to keep track of minor league players, see who is doing well and has the chance of being called up. Once you've found your guy, ADD HIM as quickly as possible! The best part is, your not giving up anything to get him, so you have nothing to lose! A league with waivers does make things a little more interesting, but that discussion is for another day.
Here's a list of some players I'm keeping tabs on this season: Jeff Clement M's(called up recently), Jarrod Saltalamacchia TEX (also being called up, again), Carlos and Gio Gonzalez both A's, Brett Carrol FLA, Homer Bailey CIN, Wladimir Balentien (I spelled that correctly) M's, Clayton Kershaw LAD, and Justin Masterson BOS, and probably some more.
Thanks to Baseball-reference for providing stats.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Time To Get In With the New
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