Hit or Miss

One of the things that irritates fantasy owners the most is inconsistency. Zack Greinke has been the model of inconsistency this season. He has baffled us all season long and has had owners second guessing on starting him every week. It seems like you either get a gem from him or he gets rocked. What can we get from Zack Greinke in the second half? Can he gain some consistency?

One thing that has been consistent all season from Greinke is the strikeouts. He has struck out 113 in 133 innings so far. He's struck out eight or more hitters in a game six times this season. He also has only 41 BB in those 133 IP so he's been getting the ball over the plate. That hasn't necessarily been a favorable accomplishment in recent weeks as he's given up 47 hits in 33 IP in his last six games.

Another thing that has been consistent with Greinke is that his monthly ERA has gone up every month this year. He was lights out in April when he had a 1.25 ERA in six starts that month. His ERA for May was 4.38. In June he had an ERA of 5.25 and in his July ERA as of today is 5.63. This is certainly not a good trend. His ERA is now up over 4.00 for the first time this season.

One thing we have learned about Greinke is don't start him against the White Sox. He has faced the Sox more than any other team in his career with 16 starts against them. His career ERA against them is 5.10 and in two starts at U.S. Cellular this season Greinke has given up 15 ER in 9 IP.

So when do you start him? You start him when the Royals are in Kansas City. Greinke has a 2.39 ERA at home this season compared to a 4.85 road ERA. The bad thing about that is Greinke has only pitched at home 7 times this season compared to 13 road starts. Also 13 of the 18 HR given up by Greinke have come on the road. I think we may have found a solution. Although Greinke has been generally terrible as of late he has still pitched well at home giving up only 4 R in 13 IP in his last two home starts while striking out 18.

The time to sell high on Zack Greinke has probably came and went although you may be able to still get decent value for him. I think it's going to be a bumpy second half for him. He's still learning how to pitch and how to pitch with confidence. His GB/FB rate has been pretty good which tells me he's getting burned on mistake pitches. I think he sometimes gets into a mode where he wants to strike everyone out.

His next start looks to be on 7/28 at Oakland against Dallas Braden. It's a road game but Greinke has good career numbers against the A's. He has a 2.89 ERA in 8 games against them. I'm going to go with his history against Oakland in this one and give him the start against the A's but continue to bench him on the road until he proves he can pitch away from home