Powerful Tendencies Building

Alex(is) Rios is one of the bigger fantasy disappointments this season. His average is not bad and he's getting plenty of steals, but something is just not right. Rios has only 8 Home Runs. He is on pace for a measly 12. PECOTA, in all of its PECOTA-ish glory, did not not see this coming. It predicted a season of 19 Home Runs. I would be fine with 19 home runs from Alex Rios, but with 12 I'm not. With only 12 Home Runs Rios leaves that desireable 5-tooled players club, filled with Grady Sizemore, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, and Ian Kinsler, and enters the Shane Victorino Club, not a horrible group to associate with, but not one that justifies a 5th round pick anymore. First, let see what has changed about Alex Rios this year from last year when he blasted 24 big ones.

	GB/FB	HR/FB
2007	.81	10%
2008	1.27	6.9%
July 08	.685	11.4%

This looks like a simple case of Prince Fielder's Disease. Rios is hitting more balls on the ground and the ones he is getting some air under are not going for Home Runs for as high a rate as they used to. The remedy, just hit more flyballs after going to the gym. In July it appears Rios might have done just that. He's hitting more flyballs overall (more line drives too) and more flyballs for Home Runs as well.

If Rios were to keep these peripherals and pace up, he would hit 9-10 Home Runs instead of the 4 mentioned earlier (12 minus 8). If Rios were to actually hit those 9-10 more Home Runs, (9-10 because the actual amount is 9.48) he would finish with a respectable 17-18 for the year. I could live with that, especially with the torrid steals pace Rios is on.

Rios has seemingly changed his plate approach in July, so consider Rios a small "buy low" guy. I would not target him so actively, but if the owner of Rios in your league is disgruntled by his lack of power, offer him something for Rios. You may not have to give up much in return for a guy I see having a solid second-half.

If your wondering how Prince Fielder is faring with his disease, the prognosis is not good. His GB/FB is way up in July to 1.57 and his HR/FB% is only up a little from his season's average. Anyone else see him slam his bat down after popping up a few days ago? Scary stuff.