Projecting Next Season: Chris Davis vs. Chase Headley

Both players were very highly touted prospects and got the call to the big club last year. The results were mixed for both players. Chase Headley started off hot with the Padres and cooled considerably down the stretch. Chris Davis stayed pretty consistent throughout his time with the Rangers. Both players are going to be highly sought after going into the '09 draft, but who will stand out over the other? Let's look at the individual numbers.

Chris Davis: 295 AB, 84 H, 51 R, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .284 BA

Chase Headley: 331 AB, 89 H, 34 R, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 4 SB, .268 BA

Davis certainly out-shined Headley in every 5x5 category except SB. But you have to factor in that Headley had to adjust to MLB hitting from two sides of the plate. When considering that, I believe that Headley had a pretty decent half season. If you double his at bats, giving him close to full season AB, you come up with 18 HR and close to 80 RBI which is pretty good for a rookie season. However, when you do the same for Davis, it's an outstanding rookie season.

Now let's look deeper into the numbers. When Chris Davis was coming up there was a lot of talk about his K rate. It's definitely a concern but Headley showed to have the same concerns. Headley had 104 K and had only 30 BB. Davis had 88 K and took only 20 BB. It's not uncommon for a rookie to swing at a lot of pitches when trying to prove himself as a Major League hitter. But Davis has shown the propensity to swing and miss his whole professional career. Headley had a 44% Swing Percentage and Davis a 55%. The intriguing part is that Headley had a 72% Contact Percentage while Davis was at 68%. Davis is actually swinging and missing more but has made up for it by adjusting during the AB which Headley had trouble doing.

The power category is definitely in favor of Davis. Davis had a SLG% of .549 while Headley's was a minuscule .419. 59 of Headley's 89 hits were singles and had only 19 doubles. Davis had 23 doubles to go along with his 17 HR. Davis has a very explosive swing. His bat speed is phenomenal and can really "load up" on a pitch and execute as violent of a swing as you'll see. Headley has a bit of a longer swing in which the barrel of the bat stays in the zone for a long time. Either style works but Davis' works more for power. Headley's swing reminds much of Chipper Jones' swing, especially from the left side.

Davis' swing is a little harder to compare because there are not many lefties that swing the way he does. You picture the stereotypical left handed hitter's swing as smooth and fluid. Yet Davis is short, compact, and violent. It that regard his swing is similar to Jim Thome's but I believe that Davis is more versatile of a hitter than Thome. Davis has the ability to hit situational. He can give you a single when you need one. Davis hit .283 with 2 out and RISP with 20 RBI in 46 chances. Only 2 of his 13 hits in those situations were HR which tells me he can shorten his stroke when needed. Headley, on the other hand, his only .194 with 2 out and RISP with 10 K and only 7 RBI in 36 chances. This tells me the swing was too long, an attempt to drive the ball instead of letting the ball come to him. In other words, a lack of patience.

One last aspect of their games must be addressed. That is their teams and their ballparks. Headley is at a big disadvantage in this aspect playing at Petco and playing on the feebly hitting Padres. Davis plays in a great hitters park in Arlington and he's part of the best offensive team in the league. The parks and the teams alone give Davis the advantage in R, HR, and RBI.

Both players are still outstanding prospects but the edge for next season to Chris Davis. He should be among the top six or seven 3B drafted next year while Headley should be drafted in the mid-late rounds with very good upside potential. There is also no reason why you can't have both of them. Headley wouldn't be the ideal starting 3B but would be an above average CI where Davis could compete for a top five overall 3B by the season's end. At any rate, the future is certainly very bright for both of these young studs.