Primed to Break Out

The one time highly touted prospect Nelson Cruz has fallen somewhat into obscurity in the world of fantasy baseball. After excelling in the minor leagues for a few years, Nelson struggled when given opportunities in the Majors. He has all of the tools to be a prominent Major League player but has yet to put it all together. I've had my eye on him all along and I believe he is ready to break out in a big way in 2009.

Cruz had a prolific minor league career. He hit over .300 in AA and AAA from 2005-08. He also hit at least 15 HR in each of those seasons. The best of which can last year in which in 103 games at AAA he hit 37 HR with 99 RBI and 24 SB. This was coming off of a 2007 minor league season in which he hit 15 HR with 45 RBI in only 44 games.

He was given some chances in 2006 with the Rangers but struggled mightily. He had only 29 hits in 130 AB. One good sign was that 6 0f those 29 hits were HR but he proved that he was not ready. He was given an even bigger role in 2007 in which he played some OF and DH. In 307 AB he mustered only 72 hits but showed some decent advances in the power numbers with 9 HR and 34 RBI. But the question began floating around--Is Nelson Cruz ever going to be a contributor at the Major League level or his he a "AAAA" lifer?

His '08 AAA season began to make mouths water once again. The power numbers were astronomical. 37 HR in 103 games? Gimme a break. The Rangers were ready to give him another chance and did with a late season call-up. Cruz showed a higher level of concentration and confidence in his '08 big league stint. This time he did not disappoint. Cruz his .330 in 115 AB with a .429 OBP, 7 HR, and 26 RBI.

I see some good signs with this spray chart from First Inning. Cruz spread his fly balls and line drives all over the outfield with highest percentage going to right field. That shows me a player that is learning how to hit in the majors. Also four of his seven HR went to CF and he only pulled one of his HR to left.

Cruz was able to raise his BB% from previous stints in the majors to %12.6 and lower his K% from %4 from '07. Again, these are signs of a maturing hitter. Cruz also had a very good BABIP of .388 in '08 and had a SLG of .609.

Part of Cruz's struggles in seasons prior can be partially due to a lack of consistent playing time. However, that's not where all of the blame lies as Cruz was not helping himself when given the PT. He was swinging at too many pitches. He had only 21 BB in his 307 AB in '07 compared to 22 BB in 130 AB in '06. Cruz has shown advancement in his plate discipline as recorded 56 BB at AAA and 17 BB with the Rangers in '08.

I believe that Nelson Cruz has finally became a mature and disciplined hitter and is set to impress in 2009. He looks to be the Rangers' starting RF for '09 and will finally get a legit opportunity to convey his talent. Cruz has the talent to be a 5-tool fantasy player with the ability to hit for average and power with good speed. Bill James is predicting a line for Cruz that looks like this: .278 BA 28 HR 84 RBI 18 SB. This is the most optimistic line that I've seen for Cruz yet. Most early projections have him producing about half of this output. I side with the James prediction but with some tweaks. I think Cruz can hit right around .300 with a few less HR and more SB. I'm targeting Cruz as a late round sleeper in all drafts with the possibility of a huge payoff. If he can continue on his track of progression then it could be one of the biggest steals on draft day.