Top 10 Most Surprising Pitchers

These are the most surprising pitchers to me over the first month and a half of the season. These are pitchers that most people had no idea that they would be where they're at right now. There are a few that look legit but there are some you might want to sell high on if you own them. Quick note: I left Cliff Lee off of this list because he is obviously the most surprising pitcher this season and there is no room for debate.

1. Ervin Santana- After a very impressive 2006 season Santana was very high on the young studs list. 2007 was a disaster for him when he completely lost all ability to throw the baseball. He was designated to the bullpen where he continued to struggle and looked as if he was on his way out of Anaheim. This year he got a second shot at the starting rotation due to injuries to Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey. The turn-around has been nothing less than, if I can quote Jim Rome...phenomenal. He's 6-0 to start the season and in 54 innings he has an ERA of 2.63, 0.97 WHIP, 45 K, and only 10 BB. He allowed 5 R and 9 hits in 5 2/3 IP in his last outing but his stuff is looking really good. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up.

2. Joe Saunders- He pitched decently in his brief stints with the Angels in the last couple of years and pitched well in big games when they needed him. I liked him more than most coming into the season and he was the first free agent pitcher I picked up. All he has done so far is win. His stats read like this: 6-1, 54 IP, 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 24 K, and only 14 BB. He isn't striking many hitters out but he's getting you good numbers in the three other categories. He's also gone 8 innings in 4 out of his 8 starts so far. The Angels aren't going to stop winning either so if he can keep the walks down like he has been, he'll keep getting wins.

3. Todd Wellemeyer- Who? Yeah, Todd Wellemeyer. The former Cubs' bullpen bust is now the no. 2 starter for the Cardinals and is stunning the fantasy world with his production so far. Coming into the season he hadn't had an ERA of under 4.00 in any season of his career. When you look at the stats and then you look at the name, your eyes will pop out of your skull. Check this out: 4-1, 55 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 47 K, with 19 BB. Can he keep it up? My guess is no. Although, the way he is going right now he's on pace for an All Star appearance.

4. Ryan Dempster- Who would predicted that the Cubs' shaky closer of a year ago would be putting up ace-like numbers in the starting rotation this year? Nobody. The Cubs' clubhouse comedian is putting up the best numbers of his career to start the season. On Thursday, Dempster went 8 1/3 innings giving up 6 hits and walking 1 while allowing 0 ER and striking out a career high 12 hitters. That brings his '08 totals to 5-1, 57 1/3 IP, 2.35 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 48 K, and 24 BB. He's also only given up 35 hits in his 57 1/3 IP. His fastball is humming, his sinker is off the table, and his curve ball is looking good as well. Unless he has a complete meltdown, it looks as if there is no stopping him.

5. Jair Jurrjens- The Braves' rookie was a sleeper going into this year's draft but this sleeper has awaken to being the Braves' most consistent starting pitcher. He's become a must start every week and looks like he could be a pretty good pitcher for the long term. He has outperformed many other rookie pitchers who were rated higher than him coming into the season. His numbers look like this: 4-3, 49 1/3 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 41 K, and 17 BB. The big question with Jurrjens coming into this year was if he was going to be able to get good strikeout numbers but so far he has shown that he can. Jurrjens is a blessing for the Braves as they have been looking for a young homegrown pitcher for quite sometime and it looks as if they finally got one.

6. Greg Smith- If you read my previous article on Smith then you know I really like this kid. He's got great mechanics, great poise for a young pitcher, and a good head on his shoulders. If the A's are smart they should hang onto this guy for a while. It looks like trading Dan Haren doesn't seem like a bad trade after all. So far Smith is 2-2, with 45 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 35 K, and 15 BB. The K numbers are legit and basically the rest of the numbers are as well. I predict nothing but good things to come for Smith and if you made the pickup this year, consider yourself lucky.

7. Dana Eveland- Also a part of the Haren trade, Eveland has been a big surprise as well. For some reason he's still available in a good percentage of leagues which is amazing to me. He makes mistakes but, what the hell, he's a rookie. Eveland is 3-3 on the season with 47 1/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 35 K, and 20 BB. I'll take those numbers from a rookie a month and a half into the season. Eveland is going to continue to make mistakes as he learns to pitch to major league hitting but the future is bright for him. As long as he limits those mistakes it should be a very good rookie season for him and will put him in contention for ROY.

8. Scott Olsen- Olsen is a guy who always has shown talent and was a very promising prospect. After his '06 season he has fantasy owners salivating at the opportunity to have Olsen a part of their squads for years to come. Then in '07...CRASH...that was Olsen's stock hitting the floor. He had a miserable season on and off the field and it looked like his once promising career was going to be a short one. He's really bounced back this season and is showing the promise that we saw in him from '06. His '08 stats: 4-1, 54 2/3 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 24 K, and 21 BB. If he can bring down the walks a little and bring up the K's he could be a very solid no. 3 starter on any fantasy team. His '06 stats say he can strike hitters out with 166 K in 180 IP. You've got to love what you've got from him so far and he's got the potential to do even more for you.

9. John Danks- The White Sox have gotten very good pitching so far with the exception of Mark Buehrle and Danks is a big part of that. White Sox fans were a little nervous after they traded Jon Garland but Danks is making Kenny Williams look like a genius. The Sox have expected a lot out of Danks and this season he isn't letting them down. This season he is 3-3 in 46 IP with a 2.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP while striking out 35 and walking only 12. If the Sox can start giving him some run support he's going to keep getting wins. I like the potential here and I like him for the rest of the season and beyond. Here is yet another waiver wire pickup that is giving his owners visions of $$$$$.

10. Jose Contreras- Jose is quietly having a very good season. Many are skeptical of his ability to keep up his hot start but I have a feeling that he can keep it up for at least another couple of months. The 37 year old (you think?) is pitching betting than he has in 3 years and his screwball is down right filthy right now. Contreras' stats look like this: 4-3, 53 2/3 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 28 K, and 16 BB. In each of his last two starts he has gone 7 innings and only 1 ER in each. The Sox are depending on a good season from Contreras if they have any hope of making the playoffs. He's likely available in your league and my advice would be to pick him up if you need another SP while his stuff is going good. I'm not going to say that his numbers will read exactly like this at the end of the season but I think he will have his best season in years.

What do you guys think? Have a guy in mind that isn't on my list? Let me know!

Somethings Caught My Eye

Drafting a catcher is always a stressful part of a fantasy draft. You must either spend a top pick on an elite catcher, or get stuck with a mediocre one. Just so you know, I advocate drafting the "mediocre" catcher instead of drafting a V-Mart in the 3rd round. There's always the chance you get lucky with your pick, or you can simply add a valuable catcher from free agency that was overlooked in your draft. Right now two catchers fit the latter description and you should consider adding them if your current catcher situation isn't too peachy.

Dioner Navarro - Dioner was once considered a top prospect with the Yankees, but after unsuccessful major league stints from 05 and 06 many forgot about him. In 2007 the Devil Rays gave him a another chance, and man did he not take advantage of it. Come the end of July and Navarro was batting .190 with 3 home runs and only 21 Rbi in 273 plate appearances. For some reason, the Rays kept him as their catcher at this point in time, perhaps for a lack of other options, anyways the move (or lack of a move) worked out. Dioner finished the season with a bang, batting .294 with 6 homers and 23 Rbi (.835 OPS) in just the months of August and September. Despite the great finish, Navarro started 2008 in A+ ball, and after crushing that in 16 Pa's, he was summarily called up to the majors and has not looked back. His current line is .387Avg/.425 Obp/.467 Slg.

Chris Iannetta - Chris jumped onto the radar after a stellar 2006 season in triple-A. Coming into 2007 the Rockies wanted Iannetta to win the starting job over Yorvit Torrealba, but did not perform well in the majors and thus remained primarily the backup. However, so far in 2008 Iannetta has shown he's matured and ready for the big leagues. His current stats are .306 Avg/.371Obp/.581Slg (last night, before going 0-for-4, it was .328/.394/.621), which is much better than his competition Yorvit's line. As of now the two Rockies catchers are splitting time, but as Iannetta continues to hit and Torrealba continues to sink, expect Chris to garner more and more playing time.

If you drafted Jorge Posada, Kenji Johima, J.R. Towles, or Jarrod Salta...hia, then definitely check if Iannetta or Navarro are available in your league. Don't be surprised if at least one of these catchers is drafted much higher come next year's draft.

One Man's Treasure Is Another's Trash

Too often I read over/underachieving articles and a player hitting .390 is named. Now, if the writer can prove to me that the .390 hitter can keep that up (Chipper Jones honestly fits that description to an extent), then I must be reading a very interesting article. However, if the basic gist of the writer's "bold" comment is, "I fully expect a regression sometime in the near future." Wow, thanks for that. I'm going to add your blog to my favorites immediately because you just provided me with some serious insight.

Okay, putting my exaggerating sarcasm aside, I'm going to name some hitters that are playing decent, but according to their Contact%, Babip%, and HR/FB%'s, should be hitting somewhat worse. Basically these hitters are hitting to their expectations, but actually should be below them. Here are the players in no particular order:

Manny Ramirez is currently batting .304 with 8 home runs and a .937 OPS. I'd consider that pretty closer to his projection for 2008. However, don't be fooled into thinking he is actually hitting as well as he has in the past. His contact rate from 05-07 averaged at 80.25% and this year it sits at a below-average 75.78%. Manny is also benefiting tremendously from a super-inflated .370 Babip. While Manny has a history having a Babip above the league average due to a solid career LD% of 22.2%, his current 20.4 LD% does not justify his .370 Babip. Ramirez's HR/FB% is at 17.8%, a little below his career average, so this isn't factoring into his luckiness at all, if anything you would call him unlucky. (Note: Last year, Many's HR/FB% was 12.3%, extremely below his average, and that is what accounted for his disappointing total of 20 home runs, the lowest in 12 seasons.) Overall, Manny is someone who "I fully expect to regress in the future" but perhaps (hopefully) that was not so obvious to you before.

Next up to be exposed is Matt Kemp. Matt Kemp is having a nice year for himself so far. He's batting .313 with 3 home runs and 25 rbi. The average is there and the power isn't that bad considering he has 8 doubles and 2 triples. He is even getting recognized at Yahoo by Matt Buser in this article where Buser says, "Get this kid on your roster and keep him there." I, in all my expertise, totally disagree with Matt Buser. When I look at Kemp, I see a man with a laughable 69.29 contact%, a high .398 Babip, and an average 11.1 HR/FB%. The .398 Babip is acceptable considering Kemp has a ridiculous 31.2 LD%. However I looked at Kemp's career LD%'s in both the majors and minors, and he never had a percentage near that before. When the LD% regresses to his career average, so will his Babip and thus his other stats. Matt Kemp is still a talented young player, I just feel for now you should get this kid off your roster and keep him there.

Okay this article is getting pretty long, so I'll just give you some names of other players that fit the description since I feel you understand my methodology. Jeremy Hermida, J.D. Drew, B.J. Upton, and Ryan Church are all players I expect to regress. Perhaps in the next few days I'll make a similar article except with players who are performing decently but should actually be playing better.

Stats from Fangraphs, Hardball Times, Yahoo, First Inning

Book Review: The Last Real Season

The Last Real Season by Mike Shropshire is a hilarious look back at the 1975 MLB season. Shropshire, a former Texas Rangers beat writer, loads this book full of outrageous stories of afro donning, leisure suit wearing ball players as well as some laugh out loud personal adventures while covering the Rangers. This book is a tale of baseball before the free agency boom when the average player's salary was a measly $27,600, mere pocket change for today's players. In that sense, Shropshire claims the players of the '70s were more like your neighbor than a superstar and had more fun than today's millionaires.

Shropshire's dry, sarcastic wit is classic and he fills the book with humorous analogies along the way. Much of the book deals with Shropshire's pleasant conversations with then Rangers' manager, the free drinking and free swinging, unmistakable Billy Martin. Shropshire's buzzed analysis of the woeful '75 Rangers' season is nothing short of hysterical. The book also contains Shropshire's awkward encounters with the likes of Ben Hogan, Mickey Mantle, and yes, Chuck Norris.

The players drank after wins and after a losses, on the plane and before the game. Shropshire was right beside them carrying on as they did and tell us all about it. This isn't some Sunday School reading material. Shropshire doesn't pull any punches and tells it like it was. Girls, booze, pills, weed, and baseball...what a hell of a combination. Believe me, it makes for some entertaining stuff.

I would recommend this book for baseball fans of all ages...if you're over 18 of course. For the fans who remember those days it's like a stroll down memory lane and for those too young to remember it's a jolting reality check and a baseball history lesson. This is a book you're going to be telling your friends about. I can't count how many times my girlfriend asked me, "What the hell are you laughing at?" I would point to the book, she would roll her eyes, and I would keep on grinning.

Chris Mulligan

Fullfilling Potential

One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the young left fielder for the Chicago White Sox, Carlos Quentin. The former 29th overall pick of the D-Backs in the 2003 draft was a can't miss prospect after having a tremendous college career at Stanford and a very productive minor league career. In 2006, as a rookie with the D-Backs Quentin hit 9 HR and drove in 32 runs in 166 AB and looked like he was on his way to being a major league star. In 2007, he suffered some injuries and had himself a very disappointing season. When Arizona's outfield starting getting a little overcrowded they dealt him to the White Sox who were desperate to find a third outfielder to solidify their lineup. They got themselves a steal.

Quentin is off to an All Star type pace this season, leading the American League in HR with 9. He also has 29 RBI, 26 R, a .297 BA, and has also chipped in 3 SB. He has already outproduced himself from last year in 100 less AB. Quentin is hitting at a ridiculous rate as he is on pace for 40 HR and 130 RBI. The White Sox couldn't be happier with the bargain they got in Quentin. He's been their most consistent hitter and is carrying their offense as Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Orlando Cabrera, and Joe Crede continue to struggle. In his last four games, Quentin is 7-18 with a HR and 5 RBI.

While most people are likely surprised by the hot start of Carlos Quentin, I'm really not. I knew the guy had it in him the whole time. He was my sleeper pick of the year last year and I was upset he didn't produce up to his potential. Now, if you would have asked me at the beginning of the year if I thought that he would be leading the AL in HR at this point in the season I would have said "hell no". I'm just happy for the guy, winning a starting spot by producing and earning it. At the beginning of the season, White Sox fans were concerned about the left field position. Who was going to win it? When Quentin was getting the starts they were still worried. Can Quentin produce for the Sox? Well White Sox fans and fantasy owners can stop worrying about Quentin. Let's start worrying about the rest of that struggling, aging Sox lineup.

I Ain't Been Dropping Nobody

Ever been in the situation where you have to drop somebody, but you cannot find someone on your team you're willing to drop? You don't want them sitting so vulnerably in the free agent pool. You become afraid of having that player added by someone else and doing well for them. Well I have a trick that will decrease the chance of that player being added, so in a few days when you clear up a roster spot, you can add that player back.

After the player is dropped, the way most people will see he's available is through the list of recent transactions on your Yahoo league's homepage (I'm not sure how it works for espn leagues, or any other type). Therefore, to prevent this from happening, make enough random transactions so that the transaction involving the player you do not want added is off the list of recent transactions. The other people in your league might think your a moron after seeing your binge on seemingly insignificant transactions, but that's just because they cannot understand the ingeniousness of your actions.

Obviously, all somebody has to do is go to the players tab and they will see your player in free agency. But honestly, I've used this strategy myself and it definitely works. Think about how you add players to your team, and a majority of the time its probably through seeing a player someone else dropped or because some relief pitcher was just named a team's closer. Doing little things like this helps you win championships.

Note: this only works in leagues without waivers.

I'm Baffled By Fausto

If there's one pitcher I feel comfortable putting my finger on that they will regress, it is Fausto Carmona. The man somehow, despite pitching quite terribly, boasts a deceptive 2.95 era. He's pitching so bad that it doesn't even take any complicated indicating stats to figure out that Carmona is getting lucky. It's staring you right in the face and let me prove it to you.

I'm going to throw out two numbers: 6.75 and 3.38. I'll tell you right now that these numbers are his K/9 and BB/9. For a person with a 2.95 era you'd probably guess that he has a 6.75 K/9 and a 3.38 BB/9. Well, you would be wrong. Fausto Carmona is actually giving up almost 7 walks for every nine innings, while striking out only 3 batters through the same 9. Absolutely ridiculous. If there is a recipe for disaster, that is in it.

The one thing Fausto has going for him is his high groundball rate, which is the result of a supposedly nasty sinking fastball. His GB% is a sweet 67.4%, and even though groundballs do fall (or roll) for hits more than flyballs, they are more desirable because they can become double plays and also more-importantly cannot become a homerun. My theory was that the Indians infield has been playing stellar defense and that can explain part of Fausto's success. Well after checking the numbers, their infield has the 3rd worst RZR (revised zone rating) in the AL at .763, and the 3rd worst OOZ (out of zone rating) at 36. Perhaps the Indians decide to try on defense only when Fausto is pitching? Usually a groundball pitcher with a bad infield behind him is a bad combination. Fausto also has a 5.13 FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching) and all you really need to know from that stat is Fausto's era should be somewhere closer to 5.13 than 2.95.

Last year I found Carmona's success somewhat fluky and was skeptical of him coming into 2008. Right now I'm not sure if I can call myself wrong or right, but pretty soon I think I'll be right. If you own him on your team, for your own sake, trade him NOW!!! If your in a relatively uncompetitive league, there is probably a guy who will look at his 2.95 era and be willing to give you valuable stuff in return. The window to trade him for value, however, is closing fast with every subsequent start. My concern is that even the ignorant fantasy player might be able to identify him as lucky since his WHIP is glaring red at 1.79. Honestly, just get rid of him for any valuable player while you still can.

Stats came from the usuals: Yahoo, Hardball Times, Fangraphs

Verlander's Struggles Continue

My Cy Young pick for the AL this year is not looking so hot right now. In fact, he's looking down right pitiful. The Tiger's only quality fantasy pitcher has been anything but a quality fantasy pitcher so far in '08. Many people thought going into the season that this would be the year that Verlander established himself as one of baseball's elite pitchers. The only thing that he has established thus far is that he is on the verge of big time bust status. Verlander's latest attempt came tonight against the Red Sox where the Tiger's ace faltered once again. Verlander went 6 innings giving up 9 hits and 5 earned runs while striking out 5 and walking 1. This latest disaster brings his record to 1-6 on the season. Tonight's loss saw him give up 4 or more earned runs in 7 out of 8 starts giving him only 1 quality start this season. He isn't striking out hitters at the pace that most though he could/would. He has only 30 K in 49 IP so far on the season.

It's hard to say if Verlander's struggles are coinciding with the entire team's struggles or if his problems are his own. One thing is for certain, owners of Justin Verlander are at their boiling points with him. As of right now, he is showing no signs of breaking out of this mire. The best thing to do with him is sit him until he gets his act together. If you have to use him, you're going to have to pick and choose the best matchups for him. Some are wondering if he is going to break out of this poor pitching at all this season. I've got a feeling he is going to turn it around soon. How soon, I'm not sure but he better get it together by June at the latest. You can't drop him people. You used a very high pick in your draft on him and let's face it he's not Barry Zito. You've got to stick with him and ride out these awful times no matter how sick it makes you. If you're a religious person, I would suggest to break out the rosary beads. The bright side...he can't do much worse.

Adam Jones - Asleep On the Job

If you take a look at Adam Jones' Yahoo profile picture, it looks like he is mired in a disgruntled sleep. Besides falling asleep for photo shoots, Jones also appears to have developed a habit of falling asleep at the plate, which leaves the Orioles and the 8.9% of people that own him (espn leagues) disgruntled. Let's take a closer look at Adam LaMarque Jones' numbers to see if his vomit-inducing line of .274/.362/.636 will stick around.

Keep in mind that Jones is only 22 years old and is playing in his first full season, and therefore we will also be checking into his minor league numbers. Right now his BB% is a laughable 4.9%. It's incredibly difficult for a hitter to succeed with a 4.9 BB%, just ask Juan Pierre. I checked out Fangraph's newly added plate discipline stats to see what is happening during Jones' at bats. What jumps out after reviewing the data is that Jones is swinging at 52.5% of his pitches, a significant increase over the league average of 45.9%. Well, if your gonna swing at more pitches, you better make contact with more pitches. So far that is not the case as Jones is making contact when swinging 76.6% of the time, (compared to 80.8% lg avg) and when he's swinging at a pitch in the strike zone he's making contact a mere 81.3% of the time (88.2% lg avg). Clearly, Jones needs to change something with his plate approach because so far it is not working in the majors.

However in AAA last year, it was a completely different story. Jones had an eye-popping line of .382/.586/.968. He did have a low BB% last year as well, 7.9%, so obviously Jones is a Vlad Guerrero-type-free-swinger, but the difference between last year in triple-A and this year in the majors is that Jones actually hit the ball last year, and he hit it hard too.

Lastly I checked Jones' BABIP and LD% to see if he has been getting unlucky this season, and both were basically league average so Jones cannot blame luck for his troubles. Too bad, cause that would make things so much easier.

As far as your fantasy team is concerned, I think Adam Jones can remain a free agent unless your in one of those few leagues where he is owned. Still, I believe Jones to be a talented, young prospect who may just be going through adjustment issues. I'd keep an eye (and possibly an ear) turned towards Jones' direction for any signs of life, in which case I would seriously consider adding him depending on my outfield situation.

In the meantime, somebody tell him to WAKE UP!!!

Warning, Too Many DL Spots Filled

Players are getting injured at a record pace this season. Based on Baseball Injury Report numbers, baseball is on track to set the record for most DL stints for the second consecutive year. 180 players have already been added to the disabled list, and the estimated end-of-season number is 416 (from 2002-07 an average of 367 players landed on the DL). There are so many players getting injured that Behind the Plate has to dedicate entire articles just to injury updates. It's probably too late to change your league settings, so if your in a league with only one or two DL spots (hopefully not zero) you must learn to get creative with roster management.

Every situation is league-setting dependant and player dependant so I can't give you definite rules, however I can give you some tips to consider. Remember to have patience, and therefore do not drop valuable players who are only going to be on the DL for 15-30 days. If a pitcher goes on the DL and you have no DL spots available, its fine for the pitcher to sit on your bench. If the same thing happens with a hitter though, you have a tough decision to make. If the hitter is one of your worse ones, consider dropping him and adding a free agent hitter hopefully of comparable talent. If the unfortunate situation occurs where one of your best hitter goes down for a good month or so, decide if your least needed player or any players currently on your disabled list are expendable. One other option you have is to try and make a quick 2-for-1 trade, which will free up a roster spot (the injured player will then remain on your bench). Don't rip yourself off though. In H2H leagues when a hitter gets injured and you have no DL spots remaining, its not the worst thing to not have a shortstop in your lineup for 15-30 days. In roto leagues however, you cannot afford to keep a starting position empty.

If your lucky enough to be in a league with over 3 DL spots and you have DL positions to spare, stash a player like Mike Gonzalez on your disabled list, who you can keep for free while he's injured and later may become a valuable closer.

Hopefully you never have to deal with this.

Greg Smith: Who is this kid?

Greg Smith is taking the American League by storm in his rookie season with the A's. Actually it's been pretty much domination for Smith. Billy Beane is once again showing off his ability to scout talent as Smith was unheard of before bursting onto the scene in April. In his last start on Sunday, Smith was once again dominant giving up 1 run and only 3 hits in 6 innings while striking out 10. He also sat down 12 of the last 14 hitters he faced. Smith looks like he could be a 4 tool pitcher showing the ability to strikeout hitters at a very good rate. His outing on Sunday to bring his season totals to 39 IP, 2 W, 31 K, 13 BB, 2.54 ERA, and a 1.03 WHIP. Wow. If you tell me you saw this coming I'll let you smack me across the mouth. The long, lanky lefty who kind of looks taller than he is because the kid is all legs. That's a good thing for young pitchers who tend to throw with all arm, Smith's power comes from his legs and his push off the mound.

I love this picture because it shows the form that young pitchers should be practicing. He's got the long plant leg stretch, generating the most power he can get from his base. He's also pointing to where he's throwing with his glove hand and he's got his throwing arm fully extended with a complete over the top arm slot. A picture perfect delivery. This is what you want to see out of young pitchers as it shows good mechanics and long lasting power. Most young pitchers that come up these days have awful mechanics and don't learn to pitch until they get to the big leagues. Smith knows how to pitch and it looks like someone taught him the right way when he was young. The thing I like most about Smith is his intelligence. At 24 years old he displays the mindset of a grizzled veteran. He credits hit career high 10 strikeout game Sunday to "trying not to do too much". He also said that he wished he didn't strikeout as many guys as he may have been able to go deeper into the game. I love the head on this kid, I love the mechanics and he looks like he could be the real deal. If you don't own him and he's out there, what are you waiting for?

Injury Update 5/5

-Jimmy Rollins will play in at least one rehab game this week and could return on Thursday from a sprained ankle.

-Chone Figgins has a slightly sprained hamstring but he is feeling better and is day-to-day.

-Orlando Hudson could return Tuesday from his sprained hamstring.

-Howie Kendrick could return today or tomorrow from his sprained hamstring after going 2-3 in a rehab game.

-Kevin Slowey could be back by this weekend after recovering from a strained biceps in his throwing arm.

-John Lackey gave up 2 runs in 4 innings in his second rehab start yesterday. He will make one more rehab start and hopes to return May 14.

-Dontrelle Willis is likely 2 more weeks away from returning to the rotation after tweaking his injured knee while throwing.

-Curt Schilling could start throwing in 10 days or so.

-Aramis Ramirez still has a swollen left wrist after being hit by a pitch but hopes to return to the lineup by Wednesday.

-Pedro Martinez hopes to face live hitting this week as he recovers from his hamstring injury.

-Ian Kinsler is questionable for the next few days with sore hamstrings.

-Matt Cain will most likely make his start on Thursday dealing with a sore hamstring.

Bottom line...stretch your hamstrings people.

Jack Cust: Heating Up

All players go on hot and cold streaks, it's just a tendency of the game. However, some players like Jack Cust take streaks to the extreme. Last year in his first 7 games, he hit 6 home runs. Then over his next 29 games he hit only 2 home runs. The cold streak ended when over his next 8 games he blasted 5 over the fence. He then got cold again and blah blah, I think you get the point that Jack Cust is streaky. Despite the ups and downs, he ended up with a respectable end-of-the-season line of: .256 average, 61 runs, 26 home runs, 82 rbi, a .912 OPS.

Well, unlike last year when Cust started out on fire, he has been ice cold so far this year. Through the month of April he was batting .176 with one homer, which led to an anemic .265 slugging percentage. The only two things Cust has done well are drawing walks and striking out. He had 24 walks and a superb .385 on base percentage. Not so superb was his 27 strikeouts in 91 plate appearances, leading to a ridiculous 37.5 k%. However it is necessary to point out that last year Cust's K rate was even higher, at 41.5%, so the strikeouts are not really that alarming. The one homerun is what really stands out.

Based on this excellent analysis of Cust by Mike Fast using Pitch F/X data, it was determined that during his hot streaks, Cust hit a lot of flyballs (which can turn into homeruns) and during his cold streaks he hit more groundballs (no chance of becoming home runs). So far this year Cust has been doing just that, hitting a lot of grounders as his GB% is 46.7%, up from last year's 42.6%.

Anyways it appears that Cust has broken out of his slump, and is a good add candidate in most leagues. On May 1st Cust went 4-4 with a home run and 2 walks. His OPS jumped from .649 to .770 after just that one night! Unsurprisingly, the next night (last night) Cust belted another shot into the stands. Jack "I am Sparta" Cust is most-likely available to add in your league (unless its an OBP league) and I suggest adding him, even if only for the next few days while he's hot.

Always take advantage of hot streaks and try to limit the damage of cold ones. To do this, you must remain active!

Hilarious Must Read Article!!!

Barry Zito Trades Self from Own Fantasy Team

May 2, 2008
By The Sportsman's DailySpecial to CBSSports.com

SAN FRANCISCO (Sportsman's Daily Wire Service) -- Beleaguered San Francisco Giants ace Barry Zito has never struggled this much in any season in the big leagues. Off toa 0-6 start with an abysmal 7.53 ERA, Zito was recently sentto the bullpen prompting him to trade himself yesterday fromhis own fantasy baseball team.

"I just had to make the move. I was getting my ass handed tome. I mean, 0-6 in April?" said the former Cy Young Award winner. "I called a few of my buddies, and I finally got oneof them to bite in a trade, but I had to throw in David Wright. I'm telling you, fantasy guys are tougher than the real thing."

Fantasy baseball is played by millions of baseball fans worldwide and is a multimillion dollar business. Zito is oneof several major leaguers to play in fantasy leagues, but considers himself a bit of a novice.

"Yeah, so much of it is luck and knowing how to spend," added Zito. "But even someone who just started playing can see moving me is the wise choice. I really bite the big one right now. Maybe I need a little time in the minors, riding in buses, staying in flea bag motels, and getting in bar fights to get my head straight."

Zito has been experiencing a bit of what fantasy experts call "lost identity."

"You see it with big leaguers who actually play in the fantasy leagues," said fantasy guru Mike Kuchera. "They trade themselves, and they lose touch with who they are. Sadly, in some instances, their families are the real victims. Jim Edmonds traded himself three times last year and wound up paying alimony to four different women."

"Even if it's a fantasy league, a veteran like Edmonds should know better," said Marvin Michaels, an attorney who represented Anna Topper, a Florida-based exotic dancer to whom Edmonds was wed for three weeks before he traded himself to the California Angels and proposed to a nail technician from Anaheim. "The rules still apply: Just because you traded yourself to a new team in a new city doesn't mean you get to trade your old wife for a new one. Wouldn't that be convenient? What about guys like me who've been stuck with this bum since the season started? Unlike Edmonds I can't blink my eyes three times and wind up with anew team and a new wife. Look, we all have fantasies -- mineis to play centerfield for the St. Louis Cardinals alongsideJenna Jameson in right on a field covered in high thread count satin sheets. But unlike Edmonds I know not to take liberties with my fantasies -- because you will pay a price.I should know, as Ms. Jameson charges a fortune.

"Zito made the trade with college buddy Cameron Kane. "I thought having Barry on my team was a bit of a conflict of interests," said Kane. "I wanted to maintain our friendship,and not put the pressure of a bad start on him. But when I knew I could get David Wright, I figured all bets where off -- in a manner of speaking. Getting Wright was the key. And who knows? Barry might earn me a couple of points in middle relief."

"It's kind of weird," added Zito. "I'm still on the Giants, but I also play on Cam's fantasy team. I'm not sure where myloyalty rests. Cam even went so far as to outfit me with a cap and warm up jersey with his logo on it, which quite frankly, I don't care much for. It's like being in that Superman Bizarro World."

Meanwhile, since the trade, Zito says a ghost-like figure named Fantasy Barry has appeared twice in his home."He looked just like me and claimed I stole his weed," said Zito. "Then he opened my refrigerator and ate some leftover Chinese food. Two hours later he showed up and asked if I wanted to go surfing with two dudes named Harley and Slam. Holy crap! I'm sporting a seven plus ERA, I've got my own evil twin -- and it's only May!"

Time To Get In With the New

The game of baseball is changing. Not too long ago when top prospects were called up, they were allowed to struggle at first. The transition from triple-A to major league ball was considered difficult and if players did not perform well in their first mlb season, it was seen as okay.

Today however, the game is very different. Touted prospects are expected to perform at the major league level immediately when called up. Now, of course if they struggle no one is really that disappointed, (see Alex Gordon last year) but enough prospects nowadays do put up good numbers when called up that struggling rookies are more quickly criticized.

I took a look at the numbers Rookie of the Year winners put up to see the increase over the years. From 1985-96, the average stats put up by a ROY was a .282 average, 16 homers, and 71 rbi. From 97 to 07, the average was a .293 average, 22 home runs, and 81 rbi; showing significant increases across the board. I will acknowledge that we are comparing players from different eras and that is probably responsible for part of the increase, but I feel it is safe to conclude touted rookies have indeed started playing better.

So we've concluded that prized prospects today are more productive than their counterparts of 10-20 years ago. What does this mean for your fantasy team? It means you can no longer ignore adding players being called to the majors that are raking in the minors. Too many of them can become valuable fantasy contributors to pass up.

If you are a fan of the 3 year experience or 26-27 year old hitter rule, you cannot stick as strictly to it anymore. For the majority of mlb hitters, I say it is a good, simple rule to be guided by. However I'm talking about the best of the best minor league players, not just some injury fill-in guy. These guys have the potential to produce and often enough they convert that potential into actual production ─ and it could be for you.

Perhaps you did not take a chance on Evan Longoria this year. Maybe you would have added Max Scherzer if it weren't for that guy who checks the league 5 times a day and woke up at 3:30 in the morning to add him. I'm not asking you to be that guy, but rather to keep track of minor league players, see who is doing well and has the chance of being called up. Once you've found your guy, ADD HIM as quickly as possible! The best part is, your not giving up anything to get him, so you have nothing to lose! A league with waivers does make things a little more interesting, but that discussion is for another day.

Here's a list of some players I'm keeping tabs on this season: Jeff Clement M's(called up recently), Jarrod Saltalamacchia TEX (also being called up, again), Carlos and Gio Gonzalez both A's, Brett Carrol FLA, Homer Bailey CIN, Wladimir Balentien (I spelled that correctly) M's, Clayton Kershaw LAD, and Justin Masterson BOS, and probably some more.

Thanks to Baseball-reference for providing stats.