The White Sox recently added to their stock of Cuban talent having secured defector Dayan Viciedo at the price of $11 mil for four years. There is a lot of hype surrounding the 19 year old sensation. It's been said that if he would have stayed in Cuba he would have been their Babe Ruth. Well, now that he's in the States I think it's safe to say that he won't be the next Babe Ruth but who's to say that he can't be the next Manny Ramirez.
Viciedo has been playing professionally in Cuba since he was 14. At age 16, playing for Villa Clara, Viciedo hit .337 with 14 HR. During the 2007-08 season, he hit .297 with 10 home runs, 38 RBI, a .403 OBP and a .503 SLG in 177 AB. In four seasons in Cuba's top league, Viciedo hit .287 with 36 home runs and 162 RBI in 327 games. He was also in consideration to be a part of the Cuban team at the 2006 World Baseball Classic but was one of the last cuts made.
Not surprisingly, a good deal of the Viciedo hype is being created by his agent Jaime Torres. In a telephone interview Torres said, "He's not a regular ballplayer. For a 19 year old, the power he has, scouts have told me that there is no reason that he shouldn't be hitting 35-40 home runs a year". He went on to say, "Teams have scouted him since then (14 years old), and several have even said to me, 'I don't need to see him play--I just wanted to make sure that he still has two arms and two legs.' That's how highly they think of him".
Of the little amount of video that I've seen on him, there is no doubt that the kid has a ton of raw power. Look at the way that he absolutely explodes on this ball. His hands are extremely quick, letting the ball get deep into the zone before making contact. This pitch seems to be a little bit up and in. Look at the way that he is able to bring his hands in and turn on the pitch. The result is a screaming line drive that leaves the park in about three seconds. The swing reminds me of Vlad Guerrero's in which the hips come through first and then the hands and wrists follow.
Scouts say that he can play anywhere from 2B, SS, 3B, and OF. The White Sox would love to call Viciedo their third baseman of the future. I believe that Ozzie Guillen is running out of patience with one time prospect Josh Fields. This was evident when Fields was called up in '08 only to sit and watch Juan Uribe get all of the playing time at 3B. The last thing that the Sox want in their lineup is another free swinging, low-contact/high-k bat in their lineup as evident by their recent departure with Nick Swisher. The Sox want/need to inject their lineup with more youth and speed which Viciedo would provide.
There is already talk in Chicago that Viciedo could very well be on the 25-man roster when Spring Training concludes. Of course, that is all just speculation. There is also talk that he will start off the season in Triple-A much like they wanted to do with Alexi Ramirez in '08. There will likely be a competition in Spring Training between Viciedo and Fields to see who will earn the starting job. However, my gut tells me that not only will he be on the roster but he will be the starting third baseman. I'm going to be keeping a close eye on Viciedo this Spring. In a fantasy league with 23 starters plus bench players, I'm looking to draft Viciedo in the late rounds as part of my bench to start the season. Viciedo (who will be 20 in March) will be given every opportunity to win the 3B job. We will just have to wait and see whether he can perform.
Editor's Note:
Here is a link to an article on an inside look at Cuban baseball thanks to my man Big O.
Commie Ball: A Journey to the End of a Revolution
Read more...
Friday, November 28, 2008
Assessing Veteran Talent: Chipper Jones
By John Dorhauer
It’s hard to believe that a guy like Chipper Jones could even be considered underrated. For the past thirteen seasons he’s been one of the game’s finest and most consistent all-around players, yet you rarely ever hear him mentioned in the discussion of the greatest from his generation. Manny’s regarded as the best offensive player (allegedly), and Jeter’s captain clutch (allegedly), but what about Chipper? Eight straight 100-RBI seasons on a team that won 14 straight division titles isn’t good enough for you? This all leads to a discussion perhaps best suited for a different forum – however, it is relevant to ask ourselves if the Chipper Jones of 2009 will be good enough to consider for your fantasy team.
What makes Jones such an interesting specimen is the fact that he’s generally regarded as a model for consistently good hitting, yet his history of injuries causes most people to consider him a risk. This is not at all an unfair belief, as he has made seven different trips to the DL since 2004 with at least one trip in every season since then. And in those seven trips, he’s had six different injuries. During these five years Jones has averaged less than 124 games a season and has not played more than 137 in any one season, so to expect him to play a full season with good health would require a great deal of illogical reasoning.
But don’t confuse this Jones with the other one from Atlanta’s glory days: in spite of Chipper’s consistent injury problems, these injuries appear to carry over very little effect on his productivity when he is playing. For example, all he did during the last two months of 2008 – which also happen to be the two months that immediately followed his latest stint on the DL – was hit .352 in 122 AB’s. The question then becomes this: is it worth investing in Jones’ statistics when he’s healthy, knowing full well that he will likely have to sustain at least one trip to the DL? Since it is virtually impossible to predict future injury, let’s focus on what we might expect statistically and see if it would even be worth balancing that elusive risk of injury.
For a guy that will be 37 next year, we can naturally expect some of his power to wane. And to an extent, this trend has already begun with Jones. His ISO for 2008 was .210, which was his lowest total since 2002 and the third lowest of his entire career. Also, his HR/FB rate of 17.5%, while only a tenth of a percent off from 2007, has been on a four-year decline. However, a gander at his ’08 homerun distribution chart from hittrackeronline.com reveals that his power may not be in such rapid decline after all:
Jones is a switch-hitter with most of his power coming from the left side, but you’ll notice that he has pretty equal power to all parts of the field. With such a mirrored distribution of homers and 17 of his 22 long balls coming from the left side, it’s clear that he’s got at least some opposite field power. What struck me, especially in comparison to Burrell’s graph, was Jones’ power between center-left and center-right. He seems to have no problem hitting the ball out to even the deepest parts of the park. It’s also important to note that his average standard distance has remained consistently above 400 feet, and it’s actually even increased slightly over the past couple seasons. So while it would seem likely that he’s losing some power with age, Jones’ continued strength of hitting solid homers may cancel out some of this.
Much like Jones’ power skills, his potential batting average ability seems open for interpretation. This has clearly been his strong suit, but there are a few indicators that suggest that he could see a regression in this area for next year. Jones’ MLB-leading BA of .364 in ’08 appears to have caught the benefit of a high BABIP, which was a whopping .388. Even with a drastically improved line drive percentage of 24.1%, this is much higher than you would expect and is not likely to be repeated.
Posting a solid line drive percentage, like Jones did last year, certainly increases your chances of getting hits. However, there are other factors that can effect a player’s ability to hit line drives, including the quality and type of pitches the batter sees. Taking a closer look a what kind of pitches Jones was facing in ’08, it also seems likely that this line drive percentage will be difficult to maintain. Using fangraph’s handy-dandy new first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike %), we can see that Jones’ rate plummeted from 57.2% in ’07 (about league average) to 48.3% in ’08 (well below league average). Hitters would prefer to have a lower percentage in this category, as it means they will be more likely to have a favorable hitter’s count and, therefore, see more hittable pitches. However, since hitters have little control over this rate, a return to the norm should always be expected. Jones clearly benefited from a number of good hitting counts this past year, but you can’t plan on that kind of luck again next year. Also, Jones was thrown quite a few more fastballs this past year – 62.0% of the pitches he saw were fastballs, which compares to the 58.7% he saw in ’07. Like many good hitters, Jones thrives on the fastball. He posted a .354 average in 113 AB’s against power pitchers, and he had twice as many walks (28) as he did strikeouts (14). Also, he hit 41% of his homeruns (9 out of 22) against these pitchers, even though these comprised only 26% of his total AB’s for the year. He may not see regressions towards the norm in all these categories, but it’s certainly likely that what regressions he does see will bring down his average.
Overall, I think that Jones carries a good deal of value with him into next year’s fantasy draft, just as long as you know what you’re getting into. You won’t get a full season from him, and he could also experience some decline in both power and average. That being said, I think most people undervalue Jones because of his history of injuries. And while you would almost certainly need a decent back up to cover for the event of an injury, Jones could be quite a steal, pending on how far he falls in the draft. The fact that he’s guaranteed to play third base – a relatively weak position right now – certainly helps. He’s no longer a top tier guy at this position, but I think he could bring you good value if you don’t get one of those few upper echelon third basemen and wait long enough to go after a third baseman.
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It’s hard to believe that a guy like Chipper Jones could even be considered underrated. For the past thirteen seasons he’s been one of the game’s finest and most consistent all-around players, yet you rarely ever hear him mentioned in the discussion of the greatest from his generation. Manny’s regarded as the best offensive player (allegedly), and Jeter’s captain clutch (allegedly), but what about Chipper? Eight straight 100-RBI seasons on a team that won 14 straight division titles isn’t good enough for you? This all leads to a discussion perhaps best suited for a different forum – however, it is relevant to ask ourselves if the Chipper Jones of 2009 will be good enough to consider for your fantasy team.
What makes Jones such an interesting specimen is the fact that he’s generally regarded as a model for consistently good hitting, yet his history of injuries causes most people to consider him a risk. This is not at all an unfair belief, as he has made seven different trips to the DL since 2004 with at least one trip in every season since then. And in those seven trips, he’s had six different injuries. During these five years Jones has averaged less than 124 games a season and has not played more than 137 in any one season, so to expect him to play a full season with good health would require a great deal of illogical reasoning.
But don’t confuse this Jones with the other one from Atlanta’s glory days: in spite of Chipper’s consistent injury problems, these injuries appear to carry over very little effect on his productivity when he is playing. For example, all he did during the last two months of 2008 – which also happen to be the two months that immediately followed his latest stint on the DL – was hit .352 in 122 AB’s. The question then becomes this: is it worth investing in Jones’ statistics when he’s healthy, knowing full well that he will likely have to sustain at least one trip to the DL? Since it is virtually impossible to predict future injury, let’s focus on what we might expect statistically and see if it would even be worth balancing that elusive risk of injury.
For a guy that will be 37 next year, we can naturally expect some of his power to wane. And to an extent, this trend has already begun with Jones. His ISO for 2008 was .210, which was his lowest total since 2002 and the third lowest of his entire career. Also, his HR/FB rate of 17.5%, while only a tenth of a percent off from 2007, has been on a four-year decline. However, a gander at his ’08 homerun distribution chart from hittrackeronline.com reveals that his power may not be in such rapid decline after all:
Jones is a switch-hitter with most of his power coming from the left side, but you’ll notice that he has pretty equal power to all parts of the field. With such a mirrored distribution of homers and 17 of his 22 long balls coming from the left side, it’s clear that he’s got at least some opposite field power. What struck me, especially in comparison to Burrell’s graph, was Jones’ power between center-left and center-right. He seems to have no problem hitting the ball out to even the deepest parts of the park. It’s also important to note that his average standard distance has remained consistently above 400 feet, and it’s actually even increased slightly over the past couple seasons. So while it would seem likely that he’s losing some power with age, Jones’ continued strength of hitting solid homers may cancel out some of this.
Much like Jones’ power skills, his potential batting average ability seems open for interpretation. This has clearly been his strong suit, but there are a few indicators that suggest that he could see a regression in this area for next year. Jones’ MLB-leading BA of .364 in ’08 appears to have caught the benefit of a high BABIP, which was a whopping .388. Even with a drastically improved line drive percentage of 24.1%, this is much higher than you would expect and is not likely to be repeated.
Posting a solid line drive percentage, like Jones did last year, certainly increases your chances of getting hits. However, there are other factors that can effect a player’s ability to hit line drives, including the quality and type of pitches the batter sees. Taking a closer look a what kind of pitches Jones was facing in ’08, it also seems likely that this line drive percentage will be difficult to maintain. Using fangraph’s handy-dandy new first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike %), we can see that Jones’ rate plummeted from 57.2% in ’07 (about league average) to 48.3% in ’08 (well below league average). Hitters would prefer to have a lower percentage in this category, as it means they will be more likely to have a favorable hitter’s count and, therefore, see more hittable pitches. However, since hitters have little control over this rate, a return to the norm should always be expected. Jones clearly benefited from a number of good hitting counts this past year, but you can’t plan on that kind of luck again next year. Also, Jones was thrown quite a few more fastballs this past year – 62.0% of the pitches he saw were fastballs, which compares to the 58.7% he saw in ’07. Like many good hitters, Jones thrives on the fastball. He posted a .354 average in 113 AB’s against power pitchers, and he had twice as many walks (28) as he did strikeouts (14). Also, he hit 41% of his homeruns (9 out of 22) against these pitchers, even though these comprised only 26% of his total AB’s for the year. He may not see regressions towards the norm in all these categories, but it’s certainly likely that what regressions he does see will bring down his average.
Overall, I think that Jones carries a good deal of value with him into next year’s fantasy draft, just as long as you know what you’re getting into. You won’t get a full season from him, and he could also experience some decline in both power and average. That being said, I think most people undervalue Jones because of his history of injuries. And while you would almost certainly need a decent back up to cover for the event of an injury, Jones could be quite a steal, pending on how far he falls in the draft. The fact that he’s guaranteed to play third base – a relatively weak position right now – certainly helps. He’s no longer a top tier guy at this position, but I think he could bring you good value if you don’t get one of those few upper echelon third basemen and wait long enough to go after a third baseman.
Read more...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
BTPF Expert Mock Draft 1 Analysis
By John Dorhauer
I was fortunate enough to be invited to participate in Chris’ first expert mock draft of the off-season, and I jumped at the opportunity. For any chance I get to butt heads with some of the finest voices of the craft, I will always do my best to oblige. The draft turned out to be a very enjoyable experience, and I felt that the competition throughout the draft was solid. Since I can only claim to be an expert on my own thoughts, I’ll review the selections I made throughout the evening. Here’s what my roster ended up looking like (with round and pick included parenthetically):
C Mike Napoli (11, 5)
C Yadier Molina (18, 8)
1B Albert Pujols (1, 5)
2B Dustin Pedroia (2, 8)
3B Kevin Youkilis (4, 8)
SS Jhonny Peralta (8, 8)
CI Troy Glaus (23, 5)
MI Christian Guzman (21, 5)
U Travis Snider (22, 8)
OF Nick Markakis (3, 5)
OF Nate McLouth (5, 5)
OF Milton Bradley (10, 8)
OF Raul Ibanez (13, 5)
OF Denard Span (15, 5)
SP Scott Kazmir (6, 8)
SP Jon Lester (9, 5)
SP Josh Johnson (12, 8)
SP John Danks (14, 8)
SP Max Scherzer (16, 8)
SP Jair Jurrjens (17, 5)
SP Aaron Cook (19, 5)
RP Brad Lidge (7, 5)
RP Rafael Perez (20, 8)
Instead of breaking down each pick individually, I’ll attempt to categorize the quality of my picks and then briefly assess them from there.
Strongest Picks:
Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, John Danks, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Glaus
Lester and Danks are two young studs that have already started to establish themselves among the game’s most promising pitchers. In 2007 Lester posted a 3.21 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27, and he also managed to significantly raise his groundball rate while lowering his flyball rate. Danks posted almost identical numbers in ERA and WHIP – even though his record didn’t show for it – while managing to increase his strikeout rate and decrease his walk rate. To get these guys when I did was a steal, I felt.
As for Youkilis, I was elated to get him in the fourth round as my third baseman. Youk has established himself as one of the league’s most consistent run producers and scorers, and he particularly stands out in a mediocre crop of third basemen. Peralta was a guy that I had with Drew and Hardy in the second tier of shortstops behind top picks Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins and significantly ahead of everyone else, and you’ll notice I got him just at the right time. Glaus was just my corner infielder, but to get a solid 20+ homers out of the last pick of the draft could make for some good trade bait, if nothing else.
Weakest Picks:
Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Max Scherzer, Nick Markakis
I wasn’t really displeased with any of these picks, although I will openly admit that these were my weakest selections. Johnson and Scherzer are the products of my willingness to take chances on the risks that young players bring. If I like a player’s upside, I won’t hesitate to look past their lack of experience in lieu of what I think they will do. I like the potential in both these pitchers, but I probably could’ve waited a little longer to pick them up. Also, I don’t know exactly whether Scherzer will end up as a starter or a reliever, but I think he could add value wherever he is. And while Lester and Danks are both young and haven’t reached their fullest potential yet, either, they have at least established themselves with significant major league experience. Kazmir was my first pitcher selected, and while I like the strikeouts he would bring me, there are probably others that were still on the board that could’ve netted me more consistency in all pitching categories.
The only reason I have Markakis on this list is because I feel that I could’ve possibly waited another round on him. I really like his potential, though, so I wasn’t too ashamed at taking the risk of picking him a round early. On the other hand, I had 14 additional picks before my next selection, and 6 of those 14 picks were outfielders, so perhaps this was the right time for me to take him.
Everybody else I kinda lumped in the middle. I won’t say too much about them here for the courtesy of time, but a few words about these: I didn’t put Pujols in the “strongest picks” category because he was such a no-brainer. Pedroia was perhaps a bit presumptive of a second round selection, but I wanted to get a top-tier second baseman since Utley and Kinsler were already off the board. (I was actually hoping to get Beltran with this pick, but when he was taken right before me, I went with plan B.) I was a bit surprised that I got Lidge as the fourth reliever taken, and I didn’t understand K-Rod going first from this group. Span will give me at least great speed, and I was very happy to get him so late as my last outfielder. And while Rafael Perez likely won’t close (although I suppose it could happen), he gets ridiculous strikeout rates.
My strategy was to get a group of well-rounded hitters as opposed to bulking up on specialists (see: Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford), and I feel like I did that. With the exception of my catchers, I really don’t have anyone who’s one-dimensional. As for my pitchers, I’m still in that “draft young” mentality, which can be attributed to my style more than anything. In a position that is so deep, though, I feel that it’s OK to take more risks and try to go for guys on the upswing of their careers. I’d love to hear any comments or criticisms you may have, as I, too, am always looking to improve my craft.
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I was fortunate enough to be invited to participate in Chris’ first expert mock draft of the off-season, and I jumped at the opportunity. For any chance I get to butt heads with some of the finest voices of the craft, I will always do my best to oblige. The draft turned out to be a very enjoyable experience, and I felt that the competition throughout the draft was solid. Since I can only claim to be an expert on my own thoughts, I’ll review the selections I made throughout the evening. Here’s what my roster ended up looking like (with round and pick included parenthetically):
C Mike Napoli (11, 5)
C Yadier Molina (18, 8)
1B Albert Pujols (1, 5)
2B Dustin Pedroia (2, 8)
3B Kevin Youkilis (4, 8)
SS Jhonny Peralta (8, 8)
CI Troy Glaus (23, 5)
MI Christian Guzman (21, 5)
U Travis Snider (22, 8)
OF Nick Markakis (3, 5)
OF Nate McLouth (5, 5)
OF Milton Bradley (10, 8)
OF Raul Ibanez (13, 5)
OF Denard Span (15, 5)
SP Scott Kazmir (6, 8)
SP Jon Lester (9, 5)
SP Josh Johnson (12, 8)
SP John Danks (14, 8)
SP Max Scherzer (16, 8)
SP Jair Jurrjens (17, 5)
SP Aaron Cook (19, 5)
RP Brad Lidge (7, 5)
RP Rafael Perez (20, 8)
Instead of breaking down each pick individually, I’ll attempt to categorize the quality of my picks and then briefly assess them from there.
Strongest Picks:
Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis, John Danks, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Glaus
Lester and Danks are two young studs that have already started to establish themselves among the game’s most promising pitchers. In 2007 Lester posted a 3.21 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27, and he also managed to significantly raise his groundball rate while lowering his flyball rate. Danks posted almost identical numbers in ERA and WHIP – even though his record didn’t show for it – while managing to increase his strikeout rate and decrease his walk rate. To get these guys when I did was a steal, I felt.
As for Youkilis, I was elated to get him in the fourth round as my third baseman. Youk has established himself as one of the league’s most consistent run producers and scorers, and he particularly stands out in a mediocre crop of third basemen. Peralta was a guy that I had with Drew and Hardy in the second tier of shortstops behind top picks Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins and significantly ahead of everyone else, and you’ll notice I got him just at the right time. Glaus was just my corner infielder, but to get a solid 20+ homers out of the last pick of the draft could make for some good trade bait, if nothing else.
Weakest Picks:
Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Max Scherzer, Nick Markakis
I wasn’t really displeased with any of these picks, although I will openly admit that these were my weakest selections. Johnson and Scherzer are the products of my willingness to take chances on the risks that young players bring. If I like a player’s upside, I won’t hesitate to look past their lack of experience in lieu of what I think they will do. I like the potential in both these pitchers, but I probably could’ve waited a little longer to pick them up. Also, I don’t know exactly whether Scherzer will end up as a starter or a reliever, but I think he could add value wherever he is. And while Lester and Danks are both young and haven’t reached their fullest potential yet, either, they have at least established themselves with significant major league experience. Kazmir was my first pitcher selected, and while I like the strikeouts he would bring me, there are probably others that were still on the board that could’ve netted me more consistency in all pitching categories.
The only reason I have Markakis on this list is because I feel that I could’ve possibly waited another round on him. I really like his potential, though, so I wasn’t too ashamed at taking the risk of picking him a round early. On the other hand, I had 14 additional picks before my next selection, and 6 of those 14 picks were outfielders, so perhaps this was the right time for me to take him.
Everybody else I kinda lumped in the middle. I won’t say too much about them here for the courtesy of time, but a few words about these: I didn’t put Pujols in the “strongest picks” category because he was such a no-brainer. Pedroia was perhaps a bit presumptive of a second round selection, but I wanted to get a top-tier second baseman since Utley and Kinsler were already off the board. (I was actually hoping to get Beltran with this pick, but when he was taken right before me, I went with plan B.) I was a bit surprised that I got Lidge as the fourth reliever taken, and I didn’t understand K-Rod going first from this group. Span will give me at least great speed, and I was very happy to get him so late as my last outfielder. And while Rafael Perez likely won’t close (although I suppose it could happen), he gets ridiculous strikeout rates.
My strategy was to get a group of well-rounded hitters as opposed to bulking up on specialists (see: Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford), and I feel like I did that. With the exception of my catchers, I really don’t have anyone who’s one-dimensional. As for my pitchers, I’m still in that “draft young” mentality, which can be attributed to my style more than anything. In a position that is so deep, though, I feel that it’s OK to take more risks and try to go for guys on the upswing of their careers. I’d love to hear any comments or criticisms you may have, as I, too, am always looking to improve my craft.
Read more...
Monday, November 24, 2008
2009 Behind The Plate Expert Mock Draft 1
Last night we had our first expert mock draft for the '09 season and it turned out really well. Everyone attended which is always a good thing and I believe that everyone had a good time. Everyone was also very entertaining for the most part. I invited a list of all-star experts and the guys came through for me. Here's the list of participants and their draft order:
1. Troy Patterson--Roto Savants
2. Patrick DiCaprio--Fantasy Pros 911
3. Tony Cincotta--Fantasy Pros 911
4. Paul Singman--The Hardball Times
5. John Dorhauer--Behind The Plate Fantasy
6. Kevin Orris--MLB Front Office
7. Eric Stashin--Roto Professor
8. Tim McLeod--Roto Rob
9. Rhett Oldham--Fantasy Pros 911
10. Chris Mulligan--Behind The Plate Fantasy
11. Grey Albright--Razzball
12. Darryl Houston Smith--Fantasy Pros 911
Full draft results can be viewed here:
Mock Draft Central: Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - BehindThePlateFantasy.com Expert Mock Draft 1 (Draft Grid)
This was my first mock draft of the '09 season except for the slow draft I'm doing for Fantasy Pros 911 that is currently in round 6. I had no really strategy coming into it other than to find value where I can and not forget about stolen bases which I tend to do on occasion. So let's take a look at my team.
C- Jorge Posada--Round 14
C- Jeff Clement--Round 19
1B- Ryan Howard--Round 2
2B- Brian Roberts--Round 3
SS- Troy Tulowitski--Round 7
3B- Chone Figgins--Round 8
MI- Orlando Cabrera--Round 13
CI- Edwin Encarnacion--Round 17
OF- Josh Hamilton--Round 1
OF- Bobby Abreu--Round 6
OF- Lastings Milledge--Round 10
OF- Eric Byrnes--Round 12
OF- Carlos Gomez--Round 20
Util- Mike Jacobs--Round 23
P- Brandon Webb--Round 4
P- Francisco Rodriguez--Round 5
P- Edinson Volquez--Round 9
P- Yovani Gallardo--Round 11
P- Jose Arredondo--Round 15
P- Erik Bedard--Round 16
P- Ted Lilly--Round 18
P- Phil Hughes--Round 21
P- Jensen Lewis--Round 22
Rounds 1 & 2- Josh Hamilton & Ryan Howard- I had a good feeling that at least one of these guys would fall to me but I was a bit surprised that I was able to get both of them. I took Hamilton first because he's a more well rounded fantasy player. He'll give me a better average and some SB (which I think he can add a little more to his game). I think getting Howard 15th overall is huge value. No player will get more HR and RBI and I think he's a better hitter than .250. I got a big chunk of my HR and RBI with these two picks.
Rounds 3 & 4- Brian Roberts & Brandon Webb- Brandon Phillips had just gone the pick before me so I wanted to get a solid 2B here and get a nice chunk of SB at the same time. Mission accomplished. Learning from past drafts, I knew I needed a top flight ace pitcher. I went with Webb over Jake Peavy because of the uncertainty surrounding Peavy and where he will go. You can't lose with Brandon Webb here. Mission accomplished.
Rounds 5 &6- Francisco Rodriguez & Bobby Abreu- K-Rod was the best player on the board at this point. I lock down a huge amount of saves here and I don't have to worry about a closer for a while. With Abreu I get an all around player, maybe 100 RBI and 20 SB. I thought he was going to have a down year last year and he proved me wrong. Hopefully another solid season from him. OF is somewhat scarce this year so I needed a solid 2nd OF.
Rounds 7 & 8- Troy Tulowitski & Chone Figgins- There was a huge run of SS before the Tulo pick and I didn't want to be left empty handed. This is about where he goes anyway. I get some nice power numbers from my SS here. I usually don't draft Figgins but I'm still worrying about SB especially since Victorino and Ellsbury are off the board.
Rounds 9 & 10- Edinson Volquez & Lastings Milledge- Could the most talented pair of my draft. Pitching is still deep at this point but I need to start adding. Volquez is a stud but having gone through the whole Dusty Baker drama in Chicago, I'm a little worried. A little. Milledge should improve on his numbers across the board and I get a solid OF with very good SB potential.
Rounds 11 & 12- Yovani Gallardo & Eric Byrnes- Adding to pitching and OF depth. Gallardo is one of the best young pitchers in the league. Byrnes good be one of the best values here. He probably won't have '07 numbers but very good ones nonetheless. Again more SB here.
Rounds 13 & 14- Orlando Cabrera & Jorge Posada- Wanted to secure my MI position because it's one of the hardest positions to solidify. Cabrera has all around good numbers. More SB here. All of the great catchers went early and often so I decided to wait around because there is a little more catching depth this year. Jorge could be a huge sleeper here.
Rounds 15 & 16- Jose Arredondo & Erik Bedard- Add another closer here, getting saves late, gotta love it. Arredondo is talented, let's see if talent turns into production. Bedard could be a huge pick here if he can come back %100. Could be a steal here.
Rounds 17, 18, 19- Edwin Encarnacion, Ted Lilly, Jeff Clement- Lock up my CI position here. Not huge on Encarnacion but has 30 HR potential in 17th round. I couldn't believe that Lilly was still available in round 18, getting 200 K here is huge. Get a potentially great no. 2 catcher late. Let's hope that talent is put on display in '09.
Rounds 20, 21, 22, 23- Carlos Gomez, Phil Hughes, Jensen Lewis, Mike Jacobs- I love the Gomez pick late, a ton of SB potential with a little pop. I think Phil Hughes breaks out in '09, having a great Fall League. I believe Lewis becomes the closer in Cleveland, saves in the 22nd round. 30 HR potential with my last pick, average could be a killer but can be improved as well.
Overall I feel good about this draft but I'm not thrilled with it either. I over-compensated for my carelessness in SB. If it were a real team I would trade one of my speedsters for a big bat. I feel good about my pitching staff but I'm sure everyone else does as well seeing as how pitching is so deep and many good potential pitchers went undrafted. Catchers and SS went early as I said before. I wanted to get a Geovany Soto or a Matt Weiters but they went close to my pick. Oh well. Rhett Oldman kept stealing my picks. If I do another draft with Rhett again I will be nowhere near him! Others guys that stood out as drafting players I was eyeing were Eric Stashin, Troy Patterson, and John Dorhauer.
Everyone did awesome. These are all experts and nobody was fooling anyone in this draft. Expert drafts are always different because they will take their guys no matter where in the draft. What might seem like a reach to some is not one at all to them. I had a lot of fun and I appreciate everyone for participating. We will do a few more of these in the coming months and I will open up a couple of spots for readers as well. Leave some comments, let me know what you think!
Read more...
1. Troy Patterson--Roto Savants
2. Patrick DiCaprio--Fantasy Pros 911
3. Tony Cincotta--Fantasy Pros 911
4. Paul Singman--The Hardball Times
5. John Dorhauer--Behind The Plate Fantasy
6. Kevin Orris--MLB Front Office
7. Eric Stashin--Roto Professor
8. Tim McLeod--Roto Rob
9. Rhett Oldham--Fantasy Pros 911
10. Chris Mulligan--Behind The Plate Fantasy
11. Grey Albright--Razzball
12. Darryl Houston Smith--Fantasy Pros 911
Full draft results can be viewed here:
Mock Draft Central: Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - BehindThePlateFantasy.com Expert Mock Draft 1 (Draft Grid)
This was my first mock draft of the '09 season except for the slow draft I'm doing for Fantasy Pros 911 that is currently in round 6. I had no really strategy coming into it other than to find value where I can and not forget about stolen bases which I tend to do on occasion. So let's take a look at my team.
C- Jorge Posada--Round 14
C- Jeff Clement--Round 19
1B- Ryan Howard--Round 2
2B- Brian Roberts--Round 3
SS- Troy Tulowitski--Round 7
3B- Chone Figgins--Round 8
MI- Orlando Cabrera--Round 13
CI- Edwin Encarnacion--Round 17
OF- Josh Hamilton--Round 1
OF- Bobby Abreu--Round 6
OF- Lastings Milledge--Round 10
OF- Eric Byrnes--Round 12
OF- Carlos Gomez--Round 20
Util- Mike Jacobs--Round 23
P- Brandon Webb--Round 4
P- Francisco Rodriguez--Round 5
P- Edinson Volquez--Round 9
P- Yovani Gallardo--Round 11
P- Jose Arredondo--Round 15
P- Erik Bedard--Round 16
P- Ted Lilly--Round 18
P- Phil Hughes--Round 21
P- Jensen Lewis--Round 22
Rounds 1 & 2- Josh Hamilton & Ryan Howard- I had a good feeling that at least one of these guys would fall to me but I was a bit surprised that I was able to get both of them. I took Hamilton first because he's a more well rounded fantasy player. He'll give me a better average and some SB (which I think he can add a little more to his game). I think getting Howard 15th overall is huge value. No player will get more HR and RBI and I think he's a better hitter than .250. I got a big chunk of my HR and RBI with these two picks.
Rounds 3 & 4- Brian Roberts & Brandon Webb- Brandon Phillips had just gone the pick before me so I wanted to get a solid 2B here and get a nice chunk of SB at the same time. Mission accomplished. Learning from past drafts, I knew I needed a top flight ace pitcher. I went with Webb over Jake Peavy because of the uncertainty surrounding Peavy and where he will go. You can't lose with Brandon Webb here. Mission accomplished.
Rounds 5 &6- Francisco Rodriguez & Bobby Abreu- K-Rod was the best player on the board at this point. I lock down a huge amount of saves here and I don't have to worry about a closer for a while. With Abreu I get an all around player, maybe 100 RBI and 20 SB. I thought he was going to have a down year last year and he proved me wrong. Hopefully another solid season from him. OF is somewhat scarce this year so I needed a solid 2nd OF.
Rounds 7 & 8- Troy Tulowitski & Chone Figgins- There was a huge run of SS before the Tulo pick and I didn't want to be left empty handed. This is about where he goes anyway. I get some nice power numbers from my SS here. I usually don't draft Figgins but I'm still worrying about SB especially since Victorino and Ellsbury are off the board.
Rounds 9 & 10- Edinson Volquez & Lastings Milledge- Could the most talented pair of my draft. Pitching is still deep at this point but I need to start adding. Volquez is a stud but having gone through the whole Dusty Baker drama in Chicago, I'm a little worried. A little. Milledge should improve on his numbers across the board and I get a solid OF with very good SB potential.
Rounds 11 & 12- Yovani Gallardo & Eric Byrnes- Adding to pitching and OF depth. Gallardo is one of the best young pitchers in the league. Byrnes good be one of the best values here. He probably won't have '07 numbers but very good ones nonetheless. Again more SB here.
Rounds 13 & 14- Orlando Cabrera & Jorge Posada- Wanted to secure my MI position because it's one of the hardest positions to solidify. Cabrera has all around good numbers. More SB here. All of the great catchers went early and often so I decided to wait around because there is a little more catching depth this year. Jorge could be a huge sleeper here.
Rounds 15 & 16- Jose Arredondo & Erik Bedard- Add another closer here, getting saves late, gotta love it. Arredondo is talented, let's see if talent turns into production. Bedard could be a huge pick here if he can come back %100. Could be a steal here.
Rounds 17, 18, 19- Edwin Encarnacion, Ted Lilly, Jeff Clement- Lock up my CI position here. Not huge on Encarnacion but has 30 HR potential in 17th round. I couldn't believe that Lilly was still available in round 18, getting 200 K here is huge. Get a potentially great no. 2 catcher late. Let's hope that talent is put on display in '09.
Rounds 20, 21, 22, 23- Carlos Gomez, Phil Hughes, Jensen Lewis, Mike Jacobs- I love the Gomez pick late, a ton of SB potential with a little pop. I think Phil Hughes breaks out in '09, having a great Fall League. I believe Lewis becomes the closer in Cleveland, saves in the 22nd round. 30 HR potential with my last pick, average could be a killer but can be improved as well.
Overall I feel good about this draft but I'm not thrilled with it either. I over-compensated for my carelessness in SB. If it were a real team I would trade one of my speedsters for a big bat. I feel good about my pitching staff but I'm sure everyone else does as well seeing as how pitching is so deep and many good potential pitchers went undrafted. Catchers and SS went early as I said before. I wanted to get a Geovany Soto or a Matt Weiters but they went close to my pick. Oh well. Rhett Oldman kept stealing my picks. If I do another draft with Rhett again I will be nowhere near him! Others guys that stood out as drafting players I was eyeing were Eric Stashin, Troy Patterson, and John Dorhauer.
Everyone did awesome. These are all experts and nobody was fooling anyone in this draft. Expert drafts are always different because they will take their guys no matter where in the draft. What might seem like a reach to some is not one at all to them. I had a lot of fun and I appreciate everyone for participating. We will do a few more of these in the coming months and I will open up a couple of spots for readers as well. Leave some comments, let me know what you think!
Read more...
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Who Really has the Best Fantasy Teams?
If you're like me you wonder how your fantasy teams stack up against all the rest. There is a brand new site out there that let's you see where your team ranks amongst every team in the world. MyRotoRank.com takes every fantasy baseball and football teams from all of the leading operators and ranks them for you. You can now literally see where your team ranks against every team out there.
David Thomas of MyRotoRank contacted me and laid out their system for me. Right now the site is in it's Beta stage which means it's only just beginning. Even in it's infancy it already has over 2.5 million fantasy teams in it's database. As of right now they only have teams from Yahoo and ESPN league but in the next couple of months they will be adding teams from CBSsportline and Sporting News.
MyRotoRank uses more than 50 factors when ranking teams. One of the factors is strength of draft. If a leagues draft is slanted one way or another such as one team gets the best players in the league then that league's teams will get a lower ranking. MyRotoRank also factors in bad trades. Bad trades will also lower a league and a team's ranking.
In the coming months you will also be able to view who is starting who as MyRotoRank will be tracking what percentage of fantasy owners are starting certain players. They will also be providing graphs that will show the adding/dropping of players and chart them throughout the season.
All you have to do is simply type in your team's name and there is your ranking. Soon you will be able to set up a profile and proudly display all of your teams and their rankings.
While the site is in it's Beta stage it is free so take advantage. In a few months it will be a pay site but I believe it will be a site worth investing in. So check it out and see where your team ranks among the best. http://www.myrotorank.com/
Read more...
David Thomas of MyRotoRank contacted me and laid out their system for me. Right now the site is in it's Beta stage which means it's only just beginning. Even in it's infancy it already has over 2.5 million fantasy teams in it's database. As of right now they only have teams from Yahoo and ESPN league but in the next couple of months they will be adding teams from CBSsportline and Sporting News.
MyRotoRank uses more than 50 factors when ranking teams. One of the factors is strength of draft. If a leagues draft is slanted one way or another such as one team gets the best players in the league then that league's teams will get a lower ranking. MyRotoRank also factors in bad trades. Bad trades will also lower a league and a team's ranking.
In the coming months you will also be able to view who is starting who as MyRotoRank will be tracking what percentage of fantasy owners are starting certain players. They will also be providing graphs that will show the adding/dropping of players and chart them throughout the season.
All you have to do is simply type in your team's name and there is your ranking. Soon you will be able to set up a profile and proudly display all of your teams and their rankings.
While the site is in it's Beta stage it is free so take advantage. In a few months it will be a pay site but I believe it will be a site worth investing in. So check it out and see where your team ranks among the best. http://www.myrotorank.com/
Read more...
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Dallas & Sense: A Look at Dallas McPherson
By John Dorhauer
Every once in awhile, a guy like Ryan Ludwick comes along. A guy who’s a career minor-leaguer that gets some big league experience here and there, but nothing to get him noticed by anyone outside the community that listens to a team’s AM talk radio program. But then, seemingly out of nowhere, he takes the world by storm and has a mammoth season at the ripe age of 29. OK, so I’m describing a very specific scenario here. What’s interesting, though, is that we could be looking at a similar story line for the 2009 season.
I’m talking about Dallas McPherson. Perhaps you’ve heard of him – he’s garnered some big league experience as a third baseman for the Angels, including some postseason playing time during the 2004 series against the Red Sox. (How weird is it that I’m talking about a potential Ryan Ludwick-type breakout figure that has postseason experience? And from four years ago?!) He now plays with the Florida Marlins, and many people are looking at the power numbers he posted last year and are expecting good things.
Before we start with the numbers, though, let’s give a brief historical accounting of who this guy is and how he got here. He was drafted in the second round by the Angels back in 2001, and he then spent the next few years climbing through their minor league system. His time at the various levels was well distributed – he played at least 30 games in rookie ball, A, A+, AA, and AAA. After his Herculean efforts in 2004, in which he notched 36 doubles, 14 triples, 40 homers, 107 runs and 126 RBI in 135 games in AA and AAA, he earned his first taste of the bigs at the end of the 2004 season. Although he spent most of his 2005 season in the majors, he failed to post numbers remotely close to his minor league efforts and spent most of 2006 back in the minors. Back surgery took away his entire 2007 season, which seemed to give his career a conclusive bell-shaped curve structure. However, he signed with the Marlins as a free agent in 2008, where he tore up AAA pitching with the same levels of success as the 2004 version of Dallas McPherson.
Now that we have a sense of where McPherson has been, let’s see if we can tell where he might go. Even though there’s been a lot of fluctuation within his career, there has been one constant: his power. Looking at his minor league totals, there are only two seasons where he didn’t post an OPS of at least .990 – his 2002 season at A ball (.801), and his 2006 season at AAA (.903). What’s important to note about the latter exception is that he only had 56 games in the minors (he still spent some time on the Angels’ roster this year) and that it was his OBP, not his slugging, that brought this total down. He’s also shown some solid speed potential, stealing as many as 30 bases back in 2002 and having 3 other minor league seasons with at least 12.
What’s especially odd about McPherson, and also what I believe has most people intrigued by his outlook for 2009, is his return to form after his 2007 back surgery. During his 127 games in 2008, he posted a line of .275/.380/.618 as well as an ISO of – get this - .344. I know it’s just AAA, but still, we’re talking Barry Bonds good there. His 42 homers were good for best in the minors last year. And for a guy that’ll be 28 next year, the Marlins basically have no choice but to promote him to their roster next year.
McPherson’s obvious Achilles’ heel is his strike out rate. No matter what level of play he’s at, his K-rate has always been around if not higher than 33%, which includes his mark of 37.5% from last year. To put that into perspective, Mark Reynolds boasted a rate of 37.8% last year. Ouch. That’s not to say, however, that a player can’t give you fantasy value with these kinds of strike out rates. The question then becomes whether McPherson is going to become a 30-homer guy like Reynolds or a potential 50-homer guy like Howard. (A caveat: personally, I don’t think either Reynolds or Howard is going to be entirely detrimental for fantasy owners. That being said, you likely won’t see me drafting either player at any point because it doesn’t cater to my style of building a team.) One major difference I see between these two hitters, disregarding home parks and lineups for the sake of the discussion, is their contact rates. While both Howard and Reynolds strike out more than anyone else, Howard has proven to have a slightly better contact rate (66.7% for his career) than Reynolds (63.7%). In comparison, McPherson’s career contact rate from his albeit limited experience in the majors is 64.6%.
What was particularly telling to me, and what makes me cautious about his ability to carry success at the big-league level, is his ability to make adjustments within an at bat. This goes along with contact rates in terms of determining a player’s likeliness to strike out – even if he swings and misses twice in an at bat, if he can make the necessary adjustments against a pitcher, he can still find a way to get on base through either a hit or a walk. To examine this, I’m going to look at his splits in different counts during his major league experience in 2005 (since this has been his most extensive major league experience, it made the most sense to me).
When he put the ball in play on the first pitch of the at bat, he hit .414 in 29 AB’s with 5 doubles (14 total this season), 3 homers (8 total) and 6 RBI. However, in counts where he had at least one strike, regardless of how many balls or other strikes he had against him, he hit .187 in 150 AB’s with 7 doubles, 3 homers and 16 RBI. Keep in mind; these numbers also include situations where he’s ahead of the count, as long as he has a strike against him. That’s just mind-boggling. Once McPherson gets his first strike against him, it seems like it’s nearly impossible for him to make the necessary adjustments to come back against the pitcher. This doesn’t seem to be a one-time fluke occurrence, either – for his 2008 season at AAA, he hit .400 in 115 AB’s when he was ahead in the count and .136 in 176 AB’s when he was behind. And while these numbers were taken in the context of slightly different scenarios (a count of 0-0 is neither ahead nor behind, after all), they’re basically measuring the same thing with eerily similar results.
So what does this mean for McPherson’s future? Honestly, it’s hard to say. I’m not just saying that as a copout, either – there are a number of situations yet to be determined that could affect McPherson’s impact next year. The obvious one is his playing time, but we can likely get a better gauge of that when Spring Training rolls around. Since he’ll be playing for the Marlins, which is a franchise with a history of playing cheap, unproven talent that other people have given up on (see, Jorge Cantu), I like his chances here. The real question for me becomes where he would play. Since the Marlins have a lot of guys who don’t really have a solid defensive position, it could go one of three ways. They could keep Uggla at second, find someone else to play first or third (pending on where they put Cantu), and put McPherson in left. They could move Uggla to left, put Bonifacio at second, keep Cantu at third and plug McPherson in at first. Or they could repeat the previous scenario and just switch Cantu and McPherson. The latter situation seems to be the most likely since they traded for Bonifacio and will likely start him, as well as the fact that McPherson has by far spent most of his career at third base. This is important because McPherson carries a lot more value if he’s a third baseman as opposed to a first baseman or an outfielder since it’s not nearly as deep of a position.
No matter what happens, I’d continue to keep my eye on McPherson. I highly doubt he’ll have the type of year Ludwick had in 2008 since he’s never been that well-rounded of a hitter, but he certainly has the potential to post Reynolds or possibly even Howard-like numbers. He’s going to have to improve not only his plate discipline but also his ability to make adjustments to big-league pitching within an at bat, a game, and a season. If he gets consistent playing time, though, I like his chances of doing this enough to be productive. If he does end up being the Marlins’ regular third baseman next year, he could be a very valuable sleeper pick, and I’d almost certainly rank him ahead of a guy like Reynolds. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
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Every once in awhile, a guy like Ryan Ludwick comes along. A guy who’s a career minor-leaguer that gets some big league experience here and there, but nothing to get him noticed by anyone outside the community that listens to a team’s AM talk radio program. But then, seemingly out of nowhere, he takes the world by storm and has a mammoth season at the ripe age of 29. OK, so I’m describing a very specific scenario here. What’s interesting, though, is that we could be looking at a similar story line for the 2009 season.
I’m talking about Dallas McPherson. Perhaps you’ve heard of him – he’s garnered some big league experience as a third baseman for the Angels, including some postseason playing time during the 2004 series against the Red Sox. (How weird is it that I’m talking about a potential Ryan Ludwick-type breakout figure that has postseason experience? And from four years ago?!) He now plays with the Florida Marlins, and many people are looking at the power numbers he posted last year and are expecting good things.
Before we start with the numbers, though, let’s give a brief historical accounting of who this guy is and how he got here. He was drafted in the second round by the Angels back in 2001, and he then spent the next few years climbing through their minor league system. His time at the various levels was well distributed – he played at least 30 games in rookie ball, A, A+, AA, and AAA. After his Herculean efforts in 2004, in which he notched 36 doubles, 14 triples, 40 homers, 107 runs and 126 RBI in 135 games in AA and AAA, he earned his first taste of the bigs at the end of the 2004 season. Although he spent most of his 2005 season in the majors, he failed to post numbers remotely close to his minor league efforts and spent most of 2006 back in the minors. Back surgery took away his entire 2007 season, which seemed to give his career a conclusive bell-shaped curve structure. However, he signed with the Marlins as a free agent in 2008, where he tore up AAA pitching with the same levels of success as the 2004 version of Dallas McPherson.
Now that we have a sense of where McPherson has been, let’s see if we can tell where he might go. Even though there’s been a lot of fluctuation within his career, there has been one constant: his power. Looking at his minor league totals, there are only two seasons where he didn’t post an OPS of at least .990 – his 2002 season at A ball (.801), and his 2006 season at AAA (.903). What’s important to note about the latter exception is that he only had 56 games in the minors (he still spent some time on the Angels’ roster this year) and that it was his OBP, not his slugging, that brought this total down. He’s also shown some solid speed potential, stealing as many as 30 bases back in 2002 and having 3 other minor league seasons with at least 12.
What’s especially odd about McPherson, and also what I believe has most people intrigued by his outlook for 2009, is his return to form after his 2007 back surgery. During his 127 games in 2008, he posted a line of .275/.380/.618 as well as an ISO of – get this - .344. I know it’s just AAA, but still, we’re talking Barry Bonds good there. His 42 homers were good for best in the minors last year. And for a guy that’ll be 28 next year, the Marlins basically have no choice but to promote him to their roster next year.
McPherson’s obvious Achilles’ heel is his strike out rate. No matter what level of play he’s at, his K-rate has always been around if not higher than 33%, which includes his mark of 37.5% from last year. To put that into perspective, Mark Reynolds boasted a rate of 37.8% last year. Ouch. That’s not to say, however, that a player can’t give you fantasy value with these kinds of strike out rates. The question then becomes whether McPherson is going to become a 30-homer guy like Reynolds or a potential 50-homer guy like Howard. (A caveat: personally, I don’t think either Reynolds or Howard is going to be entirely detrimental for fantasy owners. That being said, you likely won’t see me drafting either player at any point because it doesn’t cater to my style of building a team.) One major difference I see between these two hitters, disregarding home parks and lineups for the sake of the discussion, is their contact rates. While both Howard and Reynolds strike out more than anyone else, Howard has proven to have a slightly better contact rate (66.7% for his career) than Reynolds (63.7%). In comparison, McPherson’s career contact rate from his albeit limited experience in the majors is 64.6%.
What was particularly telling to me, and what makes me cautious about his ability to carry success at the big-league level, is his ability to make adjustments within an at bat. This goes along with contact rates in terms of determining a player’s likeliness to strike out – even if he swings and misses twice in an at bat, if he can make the necessary adjustments against a pitcher, he can still find a way to get on base through either a hit or a walk. To examine this, I’m going to look at his splits in different counts during his major league experience in 2005 (since this has been his most extensive major league experience, it made the most sense to me).
When he put the ball in play on the first pitch of the at bat, he hit .414 in 29 AB’s with 5 doubles (14 total this season), 3 homers (8 total) and 6 RBI. However, in counts where he had at least one strike, regardless of how many balls or other strikes he had against him, he hit .187 in 150 AB’s with 7 doubles, 3 homers and 16 RBI. Keep in mind; these numbers also include situations where he’s ahead of the count, as long as he has a strike against him. That’s just mind-boggling. Once McPherson gets his first strike against him, it seems like it’s nearly impossible for him to make the necessary adjustments to come back against the pitcher. This doesn’t seem to be a one-time fluke occurrence, either – for his 2008 season at AAA, he hit .400 in 115 AB’s when he was ahead in the count and .136 in 176 AB’s when he was behind. And while these numbers were taken in the context of slightly different scenarios (a count of 0-0 is neither ahead nor behind, after all), they’re basically measuring the same thing with eerily similar results.
So what does this mean for McPherson’s future? Honestly, it’s hard to say. I’m not just saying that as a copout, either – there are a number of situations yet to be determined that could affect McPherson’s impact next year. The obvious one is his playing time, but we can likely get a better gauge of that when Spring Training rolls around. Since he’ll be playing for the Marlins, which is a franchise with a history of playing cheap, unproven talent that other people have given up on (see, Jorge Cantu), I like his chances here. The real question for me becomes where he would play. Since the Marlins have a lot of guys who don’t really have a solid defensive position, it could go one of three ways. They could keep Uggla at second, find someone else to play first or third (pending on where they put Cantu), and put McPherson in left. They could move Uggla to left, put Bonifacio at second, keep Cantu at third and plug McPherson in at first. Or they could repeat the previous scenario and just switch Cantu and McPherson. The latter situation seems to be the most likely since they traded for Bonifacio and will likely start him, as well as the fact that McPherson has by far spent most of his career at third base. This is important because McPherson carries a lot more value if he’s a third baseman as opposed to a first baseman or an outfielder since it’s not nearly as deep of a position.
No matter what happens, I’d continue to keep my eye on McPherson. I highly doubt he’ll have the type of year Ludwick had in 2008 since he’s never been that well-rounded of a hitter, but he certainly has the potential to post Reynolds or possibly even Howard-like numbers. He’s going to have to improve not only his plate discipline but also his ability to make adjustments to big-league pitching within an at bat, a game, and a season. If he gets consistent playing time, though, I like his chances of doing this enough to be productive. If he does end up being the Marlins’ regular third baseman next year, he could be a very valuable sleeper pick, and I’d almost certainly rank him ahead of a guy like Reynolds. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2008
The Fantasy Man's Tips for Going Green on Draft Day
Mike Kuchera (www.thefantasyman.com, www.fantasybaseballexpress.com) is doing all he can to Go Green on draft days and he offers some great tips on how you can do the same for your fantasy baseball drafts. I make a conscious effort every day to conserve energy and minimize my pollution. Whether it's using the minimal amount of light or walking to get cigarettes instead of driving those four whole blocks to the gas station. I'll even throw on a sweatshirt and turn the heat off for the night.
It's a great article and you should all give it a read and try to practice some of the tips that Mike lays out for us. If we all practice conservation we can help to slow the deterioration of our planet. Every little bit adds up.
You can read The Fantasy Man's article here: http://www.fantasybaseballexpress.com/search/label/The%20Fantasy%20Man%20Goes%20GREEN
Thanks,
Chris
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It's a great article and you should all give it a read and try to practice some of the tips that Mike lays out for us. If we all practice conservation we can help to slow the deterioration of our planet. Every little bit adds up.
You can read The Fantasy Man's article here: http://www.fantasybaseballexpress.com/search/label/The%20Fantasy%20Man%20Goes%20GREEN
Thanks,
Chris
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Monday, November 17, 2008
End of an Era in Chicago
The decade that Kerry Wood spent with the Chicago Cubs was a tumultuous one to say the least. No doubt that decade had it's ups and downs. The ups were very exciting and entertaining and the downs were depressing and disappointing. It was very much a love/hate relationship between the Cubs fans and Kerry Wood but for the most part it was love.
Every Cubs fan will remember where they were on May 6, 1998 when in his fifth Major League appearance Kerry Wood struck out 20 Houston Astros while allowing only one hit. It was one of the most exciting baseball games I have ever seen and I can remember nervously anticipating that 20th K and when he got it my head almost touched the ceiling. It was the most dominating pitching performance I have ever seen. I have never seen Major League hitters look so foolish in my life.
We all thought that we had the next Roger Clemens or the next Nolan Ryan or perhaps even better. I suppose it just wasn't meant to be. Just after the season ended Kerry Wood was scheduled for Tommy John surgery and he would never be as filthy as he was as a rookie. It was almost as if God said, "You're arm is TOO strong". The truth is that Wood's mechanics were God awful and they stayed that way for a long time.
2003, for the most part, was a great year for Kerry Wood. He was an All Star and struck out 266 that year. He also had two wins in the NLDS against the Braves to give the Cubs their first post-season series win since 1945. He also hit a big homerun for the Cubs in Game 5 to seal the deal. However, in Game 7 of the NLCS against the Marlins Kerry Wood got the start and was terrible when the Cubs needed him most.
Kerry Wood spent more time on the DL then I can even remember. That is what garnered the hate from Cubs fans. They thought that he was fragile, disinterested, and surly. So what happened? Everyone had their opinions. It was the manager's fault, it was the pitching coach's fault, he was just weak. The truth is that is was a combination of things. His poor mechanics certainly did not help. The mechanics led to his elbow being blown out. When your elbow is hurting you overuse your other body parts in an attempt to make up the difference in velocity. Your shoulder picks up the slack, your back picks up the slack and before you know it your back and shoulder are hurting.
If I would have told you in 1998 that Kerry Wood would only win 77 games in ten years with the Cubs you would have punched me in the face for being such a moron but that is how things turned out. Woody also only went over 200 IP in a season twice and in four of his nine seasons as a starter he didn't even reach 70 IP. When Cubs fans look back and think about what could have been if it were not for injuries it seems much like utter disbelief. The Cubs had one of the biggest starting pitching phenoms in the history of the game and it amounted for only 77 wins for the Chicago Cubs. It's enough to make your heart hurt as if someone had the Killer Claw Death Grip on it and was slowly cranking it in circles.
The '08 season was a good one for Wood. The Cubs' experiment with him as the closer worked out very well. Cubs fans were skeptical that he could reach 20 saves before injury occurred yet again. Woody finished with 34 S and had 84 K in 66 IP. His fastball was consistently in the 94-97 MPH range and his slider was nasty. He held up well all season except for an infected blister that caused him to miss almost two weeks. It felt great to see him pitching well and once again having success.
Kerry Wood did do some very good things as a Chicago Cub. To fans of other teams these accomplishments probably appear laughable but to us Cubs fans they mean something. He almost single-handedly gave the Cubs their first post-season series win in 98 years. He is the youngest pitcher to get to 1,000 K in MLB history. The 20 K game that tied the ML record will live forever in Cubs' lore. He has also done so many great things for the people and charities of Chicago.
It was not a shock when Jim Hendry came on the radio to announce that Kerry Wood would not be returning to the Cubs in '09. I saw it coming and it makes sense. They have a capable closer in Carlos Marmol and they can use the money that they would have paid Wood to help in other areas. At the same time it was sad news. I have always liked and respected Wood as many other Cubs fans have also. He never once complained in his 10 years in Chicago. He was never a jerk when so many others were being a jerk to him. He fought through a lot of adversity while coming back from injuries. There were times when he didn't think that he could do it, that he would never pitch again but he always fought. He was always there for his teammates even when he was not playing. For these things, I will always respect and admire Kerry Wood.
It's going to be very, very strange to see Kerry Wood in another uniform next season especially if it's a Cardinals or a Brewers uniform. But this is how things are in baseball and it's time to move on. The KW 20 K flag will always fly at Wrigley Field. I'm not taking down my Kerry Wood poster and I will continue to proudly wear my Kerry Wood jersey. Good luck Kerry and thank you for the good times.
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Friday, November 14, 2008
Assessing Veteran Talent: Pat Burrell
By John Dorhauer
I’ve been talking a lot recently about the difficulty of knowing exactly what to expect from young, relatively unproven talent going into a given year. This does not imply, however, that players always become more consistent and predictable with age. While this may be true through a certain age range, every player will eventually meet a continued regression as they age. And in some ways, predicting at what point this regression will occur can be just as tricky, if not more so, than predicting the ascension of a young player. With that in mind, let’s take a look at Pat Burrell and see what we might be able to expect from this proven veteran quantity.
Taking a look at Burrell’s offensive numbers in 2008, there appears to be no reason to expect any sort of regression. He had 33 doubles and 33 homers, which were his best marks in each category since 2002. He had an ISO of .257, and that number has increased in each of the last five seasons (which happens to be every year since his stellar 2002 campaign). His line drive percentage was 20.4% - up 2.3% from ’07 - and he managed to hit 18% percent of his fly balls for homers, which happens to be near his career-best. And while he still has a knack for the strikeout (nearly a quarter of the time), he has leveled this mark off from previous years. This has been helped by his increased contact rate of 81.3%, another stat that has increased consistently for him. He’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone (20.1% – up 4.5% from ’07), but this has been counteracted with an increased contact rate on these pitches (66.5% - up 11.2% from ’07). Even though Burrell will be 32 for the 2009 season, it looks like he’s still growing through his prime.
But not so fast. Bill James projects Burrell to have similar power numbers next year with only slight declines in homers (32 projected) and doubles (29). If these numbers are accurate, then Burrell obviously carries a good deal of value in terms of his power. I’m just not a big believer that he can sustain these numbers, next year, though. The most telling indicator for me was how he achieved his power numbers in 2008. While he hit 33 homers this past year, almost all of them were straight pull shots, which means he’s hitting towards a closer fence and a shorter field. (To get a better sense of this, go to hittrackeronline.com and look for Burrell’s page – I’d copy the graph myself, but I haven’t had much luck with successfully putting any tables/graphs in these posts.) The graph that records the trajectory of home runs plots these in reference to the angle at which they left the bat: therefore, 90 degrees is straight-away center, 45 is the right field pole and 135 is the left field pole. This puts left-center at about 110 degrees. Assuming you’re able to check out this graph, you’ll notice practically everything is bunched between the 135 and 110 degree markings (28 of 33, to be exact). Using that information, we can deduce that only 5 of Burrell’s home runs this past year weren’t dead-pull shots, and only two of those were hit opposite field. And none of them were hit to straight-away center.
Perhaps this just means that Burrell is just that good of a pull hitter, but this isn’t the case. Looking at these graphs from his 2007 and 2006 seasons (the only other two with such a graphic), you notice a stunning shift in Burrell’s power distribution. 2007 doesn’t show quite as big of a departure (although there’s a much larger grouping around left-center than 2008, which is largely grouped around the right field pole), but 2006 shows a much more even spread of power. Burrell is not a guy with opposite field power, but you can see that he at least used to be able to go to dead center. This trend is also made apparent by the decrease in average standard distance, a stat that measures how far a homer will travel in optimal weather conditions and discounts the effects of wind and altitude. In each of these three seasons, Burrell experienced a significant drop in distance, going from 397.2 feet in ’06 to 389.3 in ’07 to 381.5 in ’08. If you think about it, that’s huge. In just two years he lost an average of nearly 16 feet in home run distance. In 2006 his average homer would’ve been a homer in practically every part of every major league park; in 2008 his average homer would barely make it out in left-center of most parks.
There are a number of other red flags for Burrell. While he has a solid HR/FB rate, his infield fly ball rate was an astronomical 13.1% last year. This has been above 10% each of the past three years, which could be another indication of a loss of power. If Burrell can’t keep that HR/FB rate up, he could experience a massive drop in homers. His groundball rate also took a jump from 30.6% in ’07 to 34.5% in ’08, which isn’t good news for a guy with Burrell’s speed. Let’s just say I don’t see him beating out those infield hits. Speaking of speed, this, paired with his overall bad defense, is also a bad sign for his fantasy value. Stolen bases aside, Burrell is a big risk to be taken out of close ballgames for either a defensive replacement or a pinch runner, which could lose you some valuable late-inning at bats. My favorite example of this came in the postseason when Manuel pinch-ran Eric Bruntlett for Burrell. How slow do you have to be to get replaced by a 30-year old guy that’s never gotten as many as 10 stolen bases in a season at the bigs who happens to look like a lumberjack?
It’s also worth mentioning that Burrell’s free agency status could have a potential effect on his fantasy league value. Perhaps he lands with an AL team as a DH, where he won’t have to worry about being replaced by a defensive sub. But if he leaves Philadelphia, I think this further hurts his fantasy stock. Not only is he leaving a very hitter-friendly park, he’s also leaving a very potent offense, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see his runs and RBI to take a hit.
Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned injury. Burrell hasn’t had much problem recently with missing any playing time, but as he gets older he becomes more and more susceptible to injury, which would obviously be detrimental to his numbers. There’s no real way to predict this, but it is worth mentioning as a risk associated with him.
Overall, I would avoid Burrell in drafts, as he will likely be over-valued. Although he’s proven to be consistent in recent years, his only real value comes from his power. And because he appears to be losing a significant amount of power, I think he will lose much of the value that people are likely to give him. If his average distance of homers continues to fall, most of those fly balls will result in harmless warning track out, which will make for a long season for Burrell as well as anyone else who drafts him next year.
Read more...
I’ve been talking a lot recently about the difficulty of knowing exactly what to expect from young, relatively unproven talent going into a given year. This does not imply, however, that players always become more consistent and predictable with age. While this may be true through a certain age range, every player will eventually meet a continued regression as they age. And in some ways, predicting at what point this regression will occur can be just as tricky, if not more so, than predicting the ascension of a young player. With that in mind, let’s take a look at Pat Burrell and see what we might be able to expect from this proven veteran quantity.
Taking a look at Burrell’s offensive numbers in 2008, there appears to be no reason to expect any sort of regression. He had 33 doubles and 33 homers, which were his best marks in each category since 2002. He had an ISO of .257, and that number has increased in each of the last five seasons (which happens to be every year since his stellar 2002 campaign). His line drive percentage was 20.4% - up 2.3% from ’07 - and he managed to hit 18% percent of his fly balls for homers, which happens to be near his career-best. And while he still has a knack for the strikeout (nearly a quarter of the time), he has leveled this mark off from previous years. This has been helped by his increased contact rate of 81.3%, another stat that has increased consistently for him. He’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone (20.1% – up 4.5% from ’07), but this has been counteracted with an increased contact rate on these pitches (66.5% - up 11.2% from ’07). Even though Burrell will be 32 for the 2009 season, it looks like he’s still growing through his prime.
But not so fast. Bill James projects Burrell to have similar power numbers next year with only slight declines in homers (32 projected) and doubles (29). If these numbers are accurate, then Burrell obviously carries a good deal of value in terms of his power. I’m just not a big believer that he can sustain these numbers, next year, though. The most telling indicator for me was how he achieved his power numbers in 2008. While he hit 33 homers this past year, almost all of them were straight pull shots, which means he’s hitting towards a closer fence and a shorter field. (To get a better sense of this, go to hittrackeronline.com and look for Burrell’s page – I’d copy the graph myself, but I haven’t had much luck with successfully putting any tables/graphs in these posts.) The graph that records the trajectory of home runs plots these in reference to the angle at which they left the bat: therefore, 90 degrees is straight-away center, 45 is the right field pole and 135 is the left field pole. This puts left-center at about 110 degrees. Assuming you’re able to check out this graph, you’ll notice practically everything is bunched between the 135 and 110 degree markings (28 of 33, to be exact). Using that information, we can deduce that only 5 of Burrell’s home runs this past year weren’t dead-pull shots, and only two of those were hit opposite field. And none of them were hit to straight-away center.
Perhaps this just means that Burrell is just that good of a pull hitter, but this isn’t the case. Looking at these graphs from his 2007 and 2006 seasons (the only other two with such a graphic), you notice a stunning shift in Burrell’s power distribution. 2007 doesn’t show quite as big of a departure (although there’s a much larger grouping around left-center than 2008, which is largely grouped around the right field pole), but 2006 shows a much more even spread of power. Burrell is not a guy with opposite field power, but you can see that he at least used to be able to go to dead center. This trend is also made apparent by the decrease in average standard distance, a stat that measures how far a homer will travel in optimal weather conditions and discounts the effects of wind and altitude. In each of these three seasons, Burrell experienced a significant drop in distance, going from 397.2 feet in ’06 to 389.3 in ’07 to 381.5 in ’08. If you think about it, that’s huge. In just two years he lost an average of nearly 16 feet in home run distance. In 2006 his average homer would’ve been a homer in practically every part of every major league park; in 2008 his average homer would barely make it out in left-center of most parks.
There are a number of other red flags for Burrell. While he has a solid HR/FB rate, his infield fly ball rate was an astronomical 13.1% last year. This has been above 10% each of the past three years, which could be another indication of a loss of power. If Burrell can’t keep that HR/FB rate up, he could experience a massive drop in homers. His groundball rate also took a jump from 30.6% in ’07 to 34.5% in ’08, which isn’t good news for a guy with Burrell’s speed. Let’s just say I don’t see him beating out those infield hits. Speaking of speed, this, paired with his overall bad defense, is also a bad sign for his fantasy value. Stolen bases aside, Burrell is a big risk to be taken out of close ballgames for either a defensive replacement or a pinch runner, which could lose you some valuable late-inning at bats. My favorite example of this came in the postseason when Manuel pinch-ran Eric Bruntlett for Burrell. How slow do you have to be to get replaced by a 30-year old guy that’s never gotten as many as 10 stolen bases in a season at the bigs who happens to look like a lumberjack?
It’s also worth mentioning that Burrell’s free agency status could have a potential effect on his fantasy league value. Perhaps he lands with an AL team as a DH, where he won’t have to worry about being replaced by a defensive sub. But if he leaves Philadelphia, I think this further hurts his fantasy stock. Not only is he leaving a very hitter-friendly park, he’s also leaving a very potent offense, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see his runs and RBI to take a hit.
Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned injury. Burrell hasn’t had much problem recently with missing any playing time, but as he gets older he becomes more and more susceptible to injury, which would obviously be detrimental to his numbers. There’s no real way to predict this, but it is worth mentioning as a risk associated with him.
Overall, I would avoid Burrell in drafts, as he will likely be over-valued. Although he’s proven to be consistent in recent years, his only real value comes from his power. And because he appears to be losing a significant amount of power, I think he will lose much of the value that people are likely to give him. If his average distance of homers continues to fall, most of those fly balls will result in harmless warning track out, which will make for a long season for Burrell as well as anyone else who drafts him next year.
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Tuesday, November 11, 2008
The Curious Case of Evan Longoria
By John Dorhauer
In my previous article I alluded to the fact that evaluating young talent is, well, really hard. Sometimes it just feels like a craps shoot. For example, Ryan Braun followed his 2007 Rookie of the Year campaign with a 2008 that, while not quite as stellar, was certainly All-Star caliber. Yet Josh Fields, who himself looked to have a breakout rookie year in ’07, did diddly-squat in ’08. Who knew? I certainly didn’t. And while some people may have guessed correctly, I don’t think there’s any way to tell with any real certainty.
Even though there’s really no way to know what a young player will do for sure (or a veteran, for that matter), is there a way to at least make yourself a better guesser at these things? To examine this matter, I’m going to take a look at Evan Longoria’s breakout season while comparing it to Alex Gordon’s expected breakout 2007 season, which, of course, turned into a flop in regard to his expectations.
To do this, you have to take a look at a player’s minor league totals since, obviously, this is all you have to go off of. (Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have excellent catalogues of this information, for your reference.) Looking at Longoria’s 2006 season in the minors – his first – he basically split time between high A ball (28 games) and AA (26 games). During his stint in the former, he absolutely tore the cover off the ball. He had a line of .327/.398/.618 and an ISO of .291. With 8 doubles and 8 homers, nearly half his hits went for extra bases. All this meant a promotion for Longoria, which didn’t go quite as well. His line dipped to an astonishingly sub-par .267/.274/.486. What hurt him here was the fact that his walk rate bottomed out, quite literally. He managed to draw only one walk in 105 AB’s. Ouch.
Nonetheless, Longoria stayed at AA for the beginning of the 2007, where he spent a majority of his season. Things turned back in Longoria’s favor, as he posted a .307/.389/.528 line in 105 games. His walk rate also rose to a respectable 11.8%. He eventually got the call to AAA, where he spent his final 31 games of the season. Unlike the previous year’s midseason call-up, his experience in AAA was not all that different from that in AA. While his batting average suffered a drop of 38 points, his now boast-worthy walk rate of 17.5% actually caused his OBP to go up a little. From here, of course, he spent a small amount of time in AAA this past season before getting his first taste of the big leagues, and then, well, you know. What’s significant about his minor league experience is that he had at least decent power at every level. His ISO, while never approaching his eye-popping mark of .291 at high A, was consistently around .220.
Now let’s look briefly at our other specimen: Alex Gordon. I say briefly because that’s exactly what his minor league experience was. He spent 2006 at AA for the Royals, and that’s it. To Gordon’s credit, he did make quite an impression in these 130 games. His line was .325/.412/.588 (that’s an OPS of 1, for those of you keeping score at home), and he posted a .263 ISO. He also managed to collect over 100 RBI and runs in those 130 games, which is rather mind-boggling. These stats, paired with the fact that his parent organization was the Royals, led to a jump all the way to the bigs in 2007, and this transition didn’t go too well for him. And that’s putting it lightly. He saw nearly or more than a 100-point drop in ISO, BA, OBP, and slugging, which pretty much says it all.
So what can we learn from these two cases? The potential between these two players appears to be pretty comparable, but the results at the major league level are obviously very different. Longoria’s improved walk rate appeared to help him, but Gordon’s AA rate of 12.9% wasn’t bad, either. The obvious variable here is experience, with Longoria having sizeable experience at every level of the minors and Gordon having only played at AA. More specifically, I credit this to the quality of pitchers faced at each level. It’s hard to prove exactly how that quality changes from level to level, but I think it’s general knowledge that the gap between levels is pretty substantial. While many minor league pitchers may have one or maybe two good pitches, most major leaguers are expected to have at least three solid pitches in their repertoire. And for those that don’t, they’ll probably end up spending some time in the minors working on that extra pitch, which is good news to minor league hitters.
This is, of course, all speculation, and it has no substantive value to us mathematically-minded fantasy gurus. So allow me to share with you some splits by Longoria and Gordon circa their rookie seasons, respectively, to see if we can get a more solid grasp on this concept. The following table shows their splits against power pitchers:
AB BA OPS K BB HR
Gordon, ‘07 166 .193 .567 52 10 3
Longoria, ‘08 122 .295 .936 29 9 9
I chose to look at their splits against power pitchers for two reasons. First, this split represented the largest sample size against any type of pitcher for both players. Second, the difference between a major league fastball and a fastball from AAA is huge (let alone AA, Mr. Gordon). As you can see, Longoria has a huge advantage in practically every category. The only category Gordon bests him at is walks, but that’s only one more walk while having 44 more AB’s. The fact that Longoria had 23 fewer strikeouts and 6 more homers while having 44 fewer AB’s is incredibly telling. If you look at splits against the other types of pitchers, you see that Gordon’s numbers are consistently bad, while Longoria’s stay consistently good. It seems clear: the jump from AA to the majors really hurt Gordon because he wasn’t able to adjust to the quality of big league pitching.
My intention with this article was not to say that Longoria will forever be a fantasy league stud and Gordon forever a dud. Actually, Longoria’s dropping walk rate from his rookie year and rising strikeout rate and sub-par contact skills (76.36%) lead me to believe that he’ll see some sort of regression next year, while Gordon, although not likely to reach that upper echelon of third basemen just yet, showed solid improvement in practically every offensive category in his second full season. Instead, I was taking a look at two rookies who had similar expectations and potential yet very different outcomes to examine how we as fantasy owners can effectively evaluate young talent. Above all statistical data, experience seems to be a very strong factor, and especially consistent experience in a steady progression of ascension through the minor leagues. There are always exceptions to this (Ryan Zimmerman had a pretty good rookie season in 2006 with no experience in the minors), but as a fantasy owner I would pay close attention to a player’s depth and variety of experience in the minors before seriously pursuing him.
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In my previous article I alluded to the fact that evaluating young talent is, well, really hard. Sometimes it just feels like a craps shoot. For example, Ryan Braun followed his 2007 Rookie of the Year campaign with a 2008 that, while not quite as stellar, was certainly All-Star caliber. Yet Josh Fields, who himself looked to have a breakout rookie year in ’07, did diddly-squat in ’08. Who knew? I certainly didn’t. And while some people may have guessed correctly, I don’t think there’s any way to tell with any real certainty.
Even though there’s really no way to know what a young player will do for sure (or a veteran, for that matter), is there a way to at least make yourself a better guesser at these things? To examine this matter, I’m going to take a look at Evan Longoria’s breakout season while comparing it to Alex Gordon’s expected breakout 2007 season, which, of course, turned into a flop in regard to his expectations.
To do this, you have to take a look at a player’s minor league totals since, obviously, this is all you have to go off of. (Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have excellent catalogues of this information, for your reference.) Looking at Longoria’s 2006 season in the minors – his first – he basically split time between high A ball (28 games) and AA (26 games). During his stint in the former, he absolutely tore the cover off the ball. He had a line of .327/.398/.618 and an ISO of .291. With 8 doubles and 8 homers, nearly half his hits went for extra bases. All this meant a promotion for Longoria, which didn’t go quite as well. His line dipped to an astonishingly sub-par .267/.274/.486. What hurt him here was the fact that his walk rate bottomed out, quite literally. He managed to draw only one walk in 105 AB’s. Ouch.
Nonetheless, Longoria stayed at AA for the beginning of the 2007, where he spent a majority of his season. Things turned back in Longoria’s favor, as he posted a .307/.389/.528 line in 105 games. His walk rate also rose to a respectable 11.8%. He eventually got the call to AAA, where he spent his final 31 games of the season. Unlike the previous year’s midseason call-up, his experience in AAA was not all that different from that in AA. While his batting average suffered a drop of 38 points, his now boast-worthy walk rate of 17.5% actually caused his OBP to go up a little. From here, of course, he spent a small amount of time in AAA this past season before getting his first taste of the big leagues, and then, well, you know. What’s significant about his minor league experience is that he had at least decent power at every level. His ISO, while never approaching his eye-popping mark of .291 at high A, was consistently around .220.
Now let’s look briefly at our other specimen: Alex Gordon. I say briefly because that’s exactly what his minor league experience was. He spent 2006 at AA for the Royals, and that’s it. To Gordon’s credit, he did make quite an impression in these 130 games. His line was .325/.412/.588 (that’s an OPS of 1, for those of you keeping score at home), and he posted a .263 ISO. He also managed to collect over 100 RBI and runs in those 130 games, which is rather mind-boggling. These stats, paired with the fact that his parent organization was the Royals, led to a jump all the way to the bigs in 2007, and this transition didn’t go too well for him. And that’s putting it lightly. He saw nearly or more than a 100-point drop in ISO, BA, OBP, and slugging, which pretty much says it all.
So what can we learn from these two cases? The potential between these two players appears to be pretty comparable, but the results at the major league level are obviously very different. Longoria’s improved walk rate appeared to help him, but Gordon’s AA rate of 12.9% wasn’t bad, either. The obvious variable here is experience, with Longoria having sizeable experience at every level of the minors and Gordon having only played at AA. More specifically, I credit this to the quality of pitchers faced at each level. It’s hard to prove exactly how that quality changes from level to level, but I think it’s general knowledge that the gap between levels is pretty substantial. While many minor league pitchers may have one or maybe two good pitches, most major leaguers are expected to have at least three solid pitches in their repertoire. And for those that don’t, they’ll probably end up spending some time in the minors working on that extra pitch, which is good news to minor league hitters.
This is, of course, all speculation, and it has no substantive value to us mathematically-minded fantasy gurus. So allow me to share with you some splits by Longoria and Gordon circa their rookie seasons, respectively, to see if we can get a more solid grasp on this concept. The following table shows their splits against power pitchers:
AB BA OPS K BB HR
Gordon, ‘07 166 .193 .567 52 10 3
Longoria, ‘08 122 .295 .936 29 9 9
I chose to look at their splits against power pitchers for two reasons. First, this split represented the largest sample size against any type of pitcher for both players. Second, the difference between a major league fastball and a fastball from AAA is huge (let alone AA, Mr. Gordon). As you can see, Longoria has a huge advantage in practically every category. The only category Gordon bests him at is walks, but that’s only one more walk while having 44 more AB’s. The fact that Longoria had 23 fewer strikeouts and 6 more homers while having 44 fewer AB’s is incredibly telling. If you look at splits against the other types of pitchers, you see that Gordon’s numbers are consistently bad, while Longoria’s stay consistently good. It seems clear: the jump from AA to the majors really hurt Gordon because he wasn’t able to adjust to the quality of big league pitching.
My intention with this article was not to say that Longoria will forever be a fantasy league stud and Gordon forever a dud. Actually, Longoria’s dropping walk rate from his rookie year and rising strikeout rate and sub-par contact skills (76.36%) lead me to believe that he’ll see some sort of regression next year, while Gordon, although not likely to reach that upper echelon of third basemen just yet, showed solid improvement in practically every offensive category in his second full season. Instead, I was taking a look at two rookies who had similar expectations and potential yet very different outcomes to examine how we as fantasy owners can effectively evaluate young talent. Above all statistical data, experience seems to be a very strong factor, and especially consistent experience in a steady progression of ascension through the minor leagues. There are always exceptions to this (Ryan Zimmerman had a pretty good rookie season in 2006 with no experience in the minors), but as a fantasy owner I would pay close attention to a player’s depth and variety of experience in the minors before seriously pursuing him.
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Saturday, November 8, 2008
Rickie Weeks: When Will People Stop Drafting Him?
He's probably the most overrated, most over-hyped players in fantasy baseball in recent years. Yet people draft him in the first half of drafts every year, clinging to some kind of hope that he will turn into the player that everyone thought he would be. Wake up people, it's not going to happen.
I seriously laugh and shake my head when people take him in the tenth round. What has he shown in his four full years as a Major Leaguer? Where are the minor league numbers that told you that he was going to be some kind of superstar? Every year I continue to be dumbfounded by the faith that people have in this bum. What is it about Rickie Weeks that warrants such a dedicated following?
He has not once had 500 AB in a season. He has not once had 50 RBI in a season. He's a career .244 hitter. Where is the value here?
Let's look at some of these putrid stats. They're actually laughable for how valued he is by some people. Last season was actually his second best season as a Major Leaguer (what does that say for him?). His SLG% was a whole .398. He hit .209 at in Miller Park which in itself should have landed him a permanent spot on the bench. He hit only 55 line drives all season for a LD% of 15.1. For you people who love this stat, Weeks' BABIP equaled a whopping .280. His IFFB% was 15.4 which is...pun intended...weak.
The biggest hole in Weeks' game is his propensity for the strikeout. Weeks struck out 115 times in his 475 AB. That's good for a 23.3 K% and his lifetime K% is 26%. He had a BB/K ratio of .57 with a career BB/K of .51. A high number of strikeouts doesn't always hurt a player's value but when a player has little value to begin with it should be a big huge red flag with "STAY AWAY!" written on it.
The strikeouts not only affect his OBP, R, BA but affect his RBI totals as well. The other thing that effects Weeks' RBI total is a general lack of clutch hitting. This is so bad that it's funny.
- Man on first- .169 BA
- Man on second- .234 BA
- Man on third- .111 BA
- Second and third- .100 BA
- Men on, 2 out- .185 BA
- Scoring position, 2 out- .200 BA
When can he be depended on?
The lack of plate discipline, the lack of clutch hitting, the low BA and RBI totals keep me scratching my head as to why Rickie Weeks retains a loyal following. In a recent expert mock draft Rickie Weeks was taken in the 12th round before other 2B such as Mark DeRosa, Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez, and Akinori Iwamura. I couldn't believe it yet at the same time I wasn't shocked at all.
So what are you getting from Rickie Weeks when you draft him? You're basically over-paying for SB and decent HR numbers for the position. He's an expensive source for SB. People continue to rely on him year after year, blindly hoping that he will somehow miraculously become what people built him up to be before he took a swing in the Majors. Good luck with that. CBS says that, "he is again a sleeper in '09". He must be a relative of Rip Van Winkle because this cat is going to be sleeping forever. I'm going to continue to let him nap.
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Friday, November 7, 2008
The New Guy: a Brief Introduction
Greetings, fellow baseball lovers. My name is John Dorhauer, and I'm honoured that you're taking the time to read what I have to say. I thought I'd take the opportunity to introduce myself and explain why I'm here.
Like most of us, my love for the game can be traced to my father. He is a true fan and scholar of the game, and I learned from him at a very early age that this would be a game that would provide me with endless joy and passion for the rest of my life. I also have a younger brother who has been equally smitten by the game, and it's been something we've always been able to share throughout our lives. He has a brilliant mind for the game and the way that it works, and he's actually the reason I started studying baseball with a more academic mind.
I've been lucky in the fact that my entire extended family has also shared this passion, which has created a warm cocoon of baseball camaraderie and competition that has been an integral part of the majority of my existence. We started an organized fantasy league when I was about eleven years old, and we've been going strong ever since. And while I've always done the league for fun, I've recently begun taking my approach to our drafts more seriously, developing a hobby of collecting various baseball stats and data in the process. I could spend hours plugging stats into an Excel spreadsheet and analyzing them and be perfectly content. It's important to note, however, that my new-found love of data has not effected my aesthetic appreciation of the game - if anything, I feel that this has increased my enjoyment of watching a game on TV or (if I'm lucky) at a stadium, as I have a better understanding of not only what's happening but why it's happening.
I'll leave you with a final fact about myself, as a way of making you jealous, I suppose. The summer before my sixth grade year, I went on baseball journey with my dad, brother and uncle across the northeastern United States, where we visited 13 different stadiums and Cooperstown over the course of two weeks. We also did all of this while living out of our '89 Ford Aerostar. Those two weeks have become an embodiment for me of why I love the game. Baseball is more than just nine guys trying to catch a ball - it's about the bond of family and always feeling like you belong somewhere. It's about seeing a stranger on the street with a ballcap of your favorite team and knowing that you have an instant connection with him. Above all, it's about always having the memories that have and will continue to mark your childhood, adolescence and adulthood. It's why I've become a disciple of the game, and I'm sure it's why you have, as well.
If you have any questions or comments for me, I'd love to hear what you have to say. Feel free to email me at the site - my new email is johndorhauer@behindtheplatefantasy.com.
Read more...
Like most of us, my love for the game can be traced to my father. He is a true fan and scholar of the game, and I learned from him at a very early age that this would be a game that would provide me with endless joy and passion for the rest of my life. I also have a younger brother who has been equally smitten by the game, and it's been something we've always been able to share throughout our lives. He has a brilliant mind for the game and the way that it works, and he's actually the reason I started studying baseball with a more academic mind.
I've been lucky in the fact that my entire extended family has also shared this passion, which has created a warm cocoon of baseball camaraderie and competition that has been an integral part of the majority of my existence. We started an organized fantasy league when I was about eleven years old, and we've been going strong ever since. And while I've always done the league for fun, I've recently begun taking my approach to our drafts more seriously, developing a hobby of collecting various baseball stats and data in the process. I could spend hours plugging stats into an Excel spreadsheet and analyzing them and be perfectly content. It's important to note, however, that my new-found love of data has not effected my aesthetic appreciation of the game - if anything, I feel that this has increased my enjoyment of watching a game on TV or (if I'm lucky) at a stadium, as I have a better understanding of not only what's happening but why it's happening.
I'll leave you with a final fact about myself, as a way of making you jealous, I suppose. The summer before my sixth grade year, I went on baseball journey with my dad, brother and uncle across the northeastern United States, where we visited 13 different stadiums and Cooperstown over the course of two weeks. We also did all of this while living out of our '89 Ford Aerostar. Those two weeks have become an embodiment for me of why I love the game. Baseball is more than just nine guys trying to catch a ball - it's about the bond of family and always feeling like you belong somewhere. It's about seeing a stranger on the street with a ballcap of your favorite team and knowing that you have an instant connection with him. Above all, it's about always having the memories that have and will continue to mark your childhood, adolescence and adulthood. It's why I've become a disciple of the game, and I'm sure it's why you have, as well.
If you have any questions or comments for me, I'd love to hear what you have to say. Feel free to email me at the site - my new email is johndorhauer@behindtheplatefantasy.com.
Read more...
Rising Value - Stephen Drew by John Dorhauer
This is an article by Behind the Plate's new writer John Dorhauer. John is a very talented writer and I'm looking forward to many good things to come from John. Here is his look at a very interesting young player, Stephen Drew.
Evaluating young talent is one of the trickier and, consequentially, most dangerous aspects of preparing for your fantasy league draft. It’s tricky because you don’t have a very large sample size from which to gather data, which presents the dangerous aspect of not having a definitive way of telling what will happen next for the given player. I tend to be the type of strategist that welcomes a certain element of risk when pursuing players, although admittedly I have been burned by going after young talent more than a few times. The trick, I’m finding as I’ve become more and more immersed in stats and sabermetrics, is knowing which stats to look at as indicators for future growth and trying to find trends there. Let’s use this approach to look at a blossoming young talent: Stephen Drew.
It’s important to consider the context of a player when evaluating him, so let’s first look, briefly, at his position. The shortstop position, in this amateur analyst’s perspective, is one of if not the most unique positions to evaluate because of the substantial and definitive drop-off that has occurred between the upper echelon of talent and everyone else. Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins already belonged in this group, but three more appear to have emerged: J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta and Drew. What is interesting about this is that the latter three have a greater propensity for power, while Reyes and Rollins are primarily valued for their speed. (Ramirez is the exception, as he has established himself as a legitimate threat in both power and speed.) Since I’m talking about Drew, though, let’s take a look at what some of his prominent power categories have done this year as compared to 2007, which was his only other full season in the bigs:
2B 3B HR ISO HR/FB% Avg. BABIP LD%
2007 13 7 5 .133 5.9% .238 .271 16.5%
2008 44 11 21 .211 9.7% .291 .326 22.6%
As you can see, every category saw a rather dramatic increase. Keep in mind, Drew played in basically the same amount of games in these years (150 and 152), and he was the D-backs’ starting shortstop consistently throughout this time. Although the spike in extra-base hits is substantial, it serves as a very shallow perspective doesn’t really tell us anything about how he got those numbers or what we can expect of him in the future. What is significant in regard to his actual power expectancy, though, is his ISO total, which soared to .211 this past year (second among shortstops only to Hanley). You can also see that more of his flyballs were going for homers, which helped his home run numbers. And while you can chalk up a lot of this to the fact that he didn’t have a very good year at all in 2007, I still tend to think this wasn’t a fluke due to the fact that Drew showed this kind of potential in AAA in 2006 (13 homers, 16 doubles in 83 games with an ISO of .173) as well as, to an extent, his call-up at the end of that season in the big leagues.
Also significant was Drew’s massive increase in batting average. More importantly, though, his ability to hit line drives indicates that this may not be a fluke, either. While Drew hit about the same amount of ground balls (170 in ’07, 177 in ’08) and fly balls (205, 216) in these two seasons, his line drive total went from 74 all the way up to 115. Since line drives are the type of contacted ball most likely to end up as a hit, you can see why balls that he hit in play fell for hits more frequently in ’08, which also led to his increased average. If this trend continues, look for an even more improved average next year.
However, it’s not all sunshine and roses for Drew: his one major caveat is his plate discipline and, more specifically, his knack for swinging at bad balls. His strikeout rates aren’t all that bad, especially for a young player. In fact, his K-rate dropped from 18.4% in ’07 to 17.6% in ’08. It’s his walk total that serves as his Achilles’ heel. Although he had 44 more plate appearances in ’08 than in ’07, he walked a total of 19 less times, causing his walk rate to plummet from 10% to 6.3%. This can be explained by his spike in swings on pitches outside the zone: in ’07 he swung at such pitches 21.77% of the time, but in ’08 this rose to 28.19%. And while his contact rates have increased across the board – which is always a good sign – any further increase in chasing pitches could have a cloudy effect on his otherwise pleasant future forecast.
There are other things to watch for with Drew that can’t necessarily be easily predicted. For example, he had a really good run total (91) and a decent RBI total (67), but these can either go up or down pending on what Arizona’s line-up does next year. If their young power-heavy talent lives up to the potential many thought they had going into 2008, and especially if the D-backs keep Dunn, these totals could easily ascend. It’s also important to note that you can’t expect much in the stolen base department from Drew, and if your league values this, he could potentially hurt you in this category as someone who plays a position that tends to value speed. Overall, though, Drew’s emerging power and solid batting average tell me that he could easily be a risk worth taking in next year’s draft.
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Evaluating young talent is one of the trickier and, consequentially, most dangerous aspects of preparing for your fantasy league draft. It’s tricky because you don’t have a very large sample size from which to gather data, which presents the dangerous aspect of not having a definitive way of telling what will happen next for the given player. I tend to be the type of strategist that welcomes a certain element of risk when pursuing players, although admittedly I have been burned by going after young talent more than a few times. The trick, I’m finding as I’ve become more and more immersed in stats and sabermetrics, is knowing which stats to look at as indicators for future growth and trying to find trends there. Let’s use this approach to look at a blossoming young talent: Stephen Drew.
It’s important to consider the context of a player when evaluating him, so let’s first look, briefly, at his position. The shortstop position, in this amateur analyst’s perspective, is one of if not the most unique positions to evaluate because of the substantial and definitive drop-off that has occurred between the upper echelon of talent and everyone else. Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins already belonged in this group, but three more appear to have emerged: J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta and Drew. What is interesting about this is that the latter three have a greater propensity for power, while Reyes and Rollins are primarily valued for their speed. (Ramirez is the exception, as he has established himself as a legitimate threat in both power and speed.) Since I’m talking about Drew, though, let’s take a look at what some of his prominent power categories have done this year as compared to 2007, which was his only other full season in the bigs:
2B 3B HR ISO HR/FB% Avg. BABIP LD%
2007 13 7 5 .133 5.9% .238 .271 16.5%
2008 44 11 21 .211 9.7% .291 .326 22.6%
As you can see, every category saw a rather dramatic increase. Keep in mind, Drew played in basically the same amount of games in these years (150 and 152), and he was the D-backs’ starting shortstop consistently throughout this time. Although the spike in extra-base hits is substantial, it serves as a very shallow perspective doesn’t really tell us anything about how he got those numbers or what we can expect of him in the future. What is significant in regard to his actual power expectancy, though, is his ISO total, which soared to .211 this past year (second among shortstops only to Hanley). You can also see that more of his flyballs were going for homers, which helped his home run numbers. And while you can chalk up a lot of this to the fact that he didn’t have a very good year at all in 2007, I still tend to think this wasn’t a fluke due to the fact that Drew showed this kind of potential in AAA in 2006 (13 homers, 16 doubles in 83 games with an ISO of .173) as well as, to an extent, his call-up at the end of that season in the big leagues.
Also significant was Drew’s massive increase in batting average. More importantly, though, his ability to hit line drives indicates that this may not be a fluke, either. While Drew hit about the same amount of ground balls (170 in ’07, 177 in ’08) and fly balls (205, 216) in these two seasons, his line drive total went from 74 all the way up to 115. Since line drives are the type of contacted ball most likely to end up as a hit, you can see why balls that he hit in play fell for hits more frequently in ’08, which also led to his increased average. If this trend continues, look for an even more improved average next year.
However, it’s not all sunshine and roses for Drew: his one major caveat is his plate discipline and, more specifically, his knack for swinging at bad balls. His strikeout rates aren’t all that bad, especially for a young player. In fact, his K-rate dropped from 18.4% in ’07 to 17.6% in ’08. It’s his walk total that serves as his Achilles’ heel. Although he had 44 more plate appearances in ’08 than in ’07, he walked a total of 19 less times, causing his walk rate to plummet from 10% to 6.3%. This can be explained by his spike in swings on pitches outside the zone: in ’07 he swung at such pitches 21.77% of the time, but in ’08 this rose to 28.19%. And while his contact rates have increased across the board – which is always a good sign – any further increase in chasing pitches could have a cloudy effect on his otherwise pleasant future forecast.
There are other things to watch for with Drew that can’t necessarily be easily predicted. For example, he had a really good run total (91) and a decent RBI total (67), but these can either go up or down pending on what Arizona’s line-up does next year. If their young power-heavy talent lives up to the potential many thought they had going into 2008, and especially if the D-backs keep Dunn, these totals could easily ascend. It’s also important to note that you can’t expect much in the stolen base department from Drew, and if your league values this, he could potentially hurt you in this category as someone who plays a position that tends to value speed. Overall, though, Drew’s emerging power and solid batting average tell me that he could easily be a risk worth taking in next year’s draft.
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Sunday, November 2, 2008
Projecting Next Season: Chris Davis vs. Chase Headley
Both players were very highly touted prospects and got the call to the big club last year. The results were mixed for both players. Chase Headley started off hot with the Padres and cooled considerably down the stretch. Chris Davis stayed pretty consistent throughout his time with the Rangers. Both players are going to be highly sought after going into the '09 draft, but who will stand out over the other? Let's look at the individual numbers.
Chris Davis: 295 AB, 84 H, 51 R, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .284 BA
Chase Headley: 331 AB, 89 H, 34 R, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 4 SB, .268 BA
Davis certainly out-shined Headley in every 5x5 category except SB. But you have to factor in that Headley had to adjust to MLB hitting from two sides of the plate. When considering that, I believe that Headley had a pretty decent half season. If you double his at bats, giving him close to full season AB, you come up with 18 HR and close to 80 RBI which is pretty good for a rookie season. However, when you do the same for Davis, it's an outstanding rookie season.
Now let's look deeper into the numbers. When Chris Davis was coming up there was a lot of talk about his K rate. It's definitely a concern but Headley showed to have the same concerns. Headley had 104 K and had only 30 BB. Davis had 88 K and took only 20 BB. It's not uncommon for a rookie to swing at a lot of pitches when trying to prove himself as a Major League hitter. But Davis has shown the propensity to swing and miss his whole professional career. Headley had a 44% Swing Percentage and Davis a 55%. The intriguing part is that Headley had a 72% Contact Percentage while Davis was at 68%. Davis is actually swinging and missing more but has made up for it by adjusting during the AB which Headley had trouble doing.
The power category is definitely in favor of Davis. Davis had a SLG% of .549 while Headley's was a minuscule .419. 59 of Headley's 89 hits were singles and had only 19 doubles. Davis had 23 doubles to go along with his 17 HR. Davis has a very explosive swing. His bat speed is phenomenal and can really "load up" on a pitch and execute as violent of a swing as you'll see. Headley has a bit of a longer swing in which the barrel of the bat stays in the zone for a long time. Either style works but Davis' works more for power. Headley's swing reminds much of Chipper Jones' swing, especially from the left side.
Davis' swing is a little harder to compare because there are not many lefties that swing the way he does. You picture the stereotypical left handed hitter's swing as smooth and fluid. Yet Davis is short, compact, and violent. It that regard his swing is similar to Jim Thome's but I believe that Davis is more versatile of a hitter than Thome. Davis has the ability to hit situational. He can give you a single when you need one. Davis hit .283 with 2 out and RISP with 20 RBI in 46 chances. Only 2 of his 13 hits in those situations were HR which tells me he can shorten his stroke when needed. Headley, on the other hand, his only .194 with 2 out and RISP with 10 K and only 7 RBI in 36 chances. This tells me the swing was too long, an attempt to drive the ball instead of letting the ball come to him. In other words, a lack of patience.
One last aspect of their games must be addressed. That is their teams and their ballparks. Headley is at a big disadvantage in this aspect playing at Petco and playing on the feebly hitting Padres. Davis plays in a great hitters park in Arlington and he's part of the best offensive team in the league. The parks and the teams alone give Davis the advantage in R, HR, and RBI.
Both players are still outstanding prospects but the edge for next season to Chris Davis. He should be among the top six or seven 3B drafted next year while Headley should be drafted in the mid-late rounds with very good upside potential. There is also no reason why you can't have both of them. Headley wouldn't be the ideal starting 3B but would be an above average CI where Davis could compete for a top five overall 3B by the season's end. At any rate, the future is certainly very bright for both of these young studs.
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Chris Davis: 295 AB, 84 H, 51 R, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .284 BA
Chase Headley: 331 AB, 89 H, 34 R, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 4 SB, .268 BA
Davis certainly out-shined Headley in every 5x5 category except SB. But you have to factor in that Headley had to adjust to MLB hitting from two sides of the plate. When considering that, I believe that Headley had a pretty decent half season. If you double his at bats, giving him close to full season AB, you come up with 18 HR and close to 80 RBI which is pretty good for a rookie season. However, when you do the same for Davis, it's an outstanding rookie season.
Now let's look deeper into the numbers. When Chris Davis was coming up there was a lot of talk about his K rate. It's definitely a concern but Headley showed to have the same concerns. Headley had 104 K and had only 30 BB. Davis had 88 K and took only 20 BB. It's not uncommon for a rookie to swing at a lot of pitches when trying to prove himself as a Major League hitter. But Davis has shown the propensity to swing and miss his whole professional career. Headley had a 44% Swing Percentage and Davis a 55%. The intriguing part is that Headley had a 72% Contact Percentage while Davis was at 68%. Davis is actually swinging and missing more but has made up for it by adjusting during the AB which Headley had trouble doing.
The power category is definitely in favor of Davis. Davis had a SLG% of .549 while Headley's was a minuscule .419. 59 of Headley's 89 hits were singles and had only 19 doubles. Davis had 23 doubles to go along with his 17 HR. Davis has a very explosive swing. His bat speed is phenomenal and can really "load up" on a pitch and execute as violent of a swing as you'll see. Headley has a bit of a longer swing in which the barrel of the bat stays in the zone for a long time. Either style works but Davis' works more for power. Headley's swing reminds much of Chipper Jones' swing, especially from the left side.
Davis' swing is a little harder to compare because there are not many lefties that swing the way he does. You picture the stereotypical left handed hitter's swing as smooth and fluid. Yet Davis is short, compact, and violent. It that regard his swing is similar to Jim Thome's but I believe that Davis is more versatile of a hitter than Thome. Davis has the ability to hit situational. He can give you a single when you need one. Davis hit .283 with 2 out and RISP with 20 RBI in 46 chances. Only 2 of his 13 hits in those situations were HR which tells me he can shorten his stroke when needed. Headley, on the other hand, his only .194 with 2 out and RISP with 10 K and only 7 RBI in 36 chances. This tells me the swing was too long, an attempt to drive the ball instead of letting the ball come to him. In other words, a lack of patience.
One last aspect of their games must be addressed. That is their teams and their ballparks. Headley is at a big disadvantage in this aspect playing at Petco and playing on the feebly hitting Padres. Davis plays in a great hitters park in Arlington and he's part of the best offensive team in the league. The parks and the teams alone give Davis the advantage in R, HR, and RBI.
Both players are still outstanding prospects but the edge for next season to Chris Davis. He should be among the top six or seven 3B drafted next year while Headley should be drafted in the mid-late rounds with very good upside potential. There is also no reason why you can't have both of them. Headley wouldn't be the ideal starting 3B but would be an above average CI where Davis could compete for a top five overall 3B by the season's end. At any rate, the future is certainly very bright for both of these young studs.
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