My Big Fat Greek Player Profile

One player whose progressive development in recent years has shocked me has been Kevin Youkilis. For whatever reason, he never struck me as a guy that could be anything more that a platoon/career minor league guy. Maybe it’s the fact that he looks more like a lumberjack than a ballplayer, I don’t know. The fact is, though, that he’s proven me wrong. Dead wrong. Over three full seasons at the bigs, Youkilis has steadily improved, which culminated in quantum leaps in almost all offensive categories last year. So the question is this: can we expect Youk’s escalating numbers to continue, or will he be reduced to lumberjacking stereotypes again?



Before we tackle this, it’s important to understand just how much Youkilis improved last year. Three statistical leaps that really stood out to me occurred in ISO, wRAA (weighted runs above average) and wOBA (weighted on-base average), which are three of my favorite stats to look at for offensive production and prediction. (If you’re not familiar with wRAA or wOBA, I posted a couple links that delve into them in my previous article on Ethier.) His ISO rose from .165 in ’07 to .257 in ‘08, his wRAA from 21.8 to 38.1, and his wOBA from .373 to .402. Basically, he went from a pretty good hitter in ’07 to an elite hitter in ’08, ranking in the top 15 in MLB in all three categories. He’s become one of the best in the game at getting on base, hitting for extra bases, and scoring runs.

In terms of point-getting offensive categories, Youk’s a solid bet in every category except stolen bases. He’s proven to be a solid .280 hitter, but that mark got as high as .312 last year. Even though Marcel and Bill James both project him around the .290 range – which isn’t bad at all – he’s got a decent shot of duplicating his 2008 total. He’s hit line drives consistently at a rate over 20% throughout his career, which has always given him a decent BABIP. Hitting line drives in Fenway is also a good way to pad your BABIP and, consequentially, your BA – last year, the Red Sox were fourth in baseball with a .320 BABIP, yet they were middle of the pack in terms of line drive rates (tied for fourteenth). The only negative trend Youk has going for his BA is his swing rates, especially on pitches out of the zone. This rose nearly 4% last year to 22.3%, which also accounts for a decrease in walk rate. While this total alone probably won’t hurt him much, any further increase could bring his average back under .300.

Youk also saw a burst of power in ’08, as he almost reached 30 homers and practically doubled his output from the previous year. He wasn’t hitting more flyballs – this rate has been pretty constant over his three full seasons – but he was hitting more of them over the fence. His HR/FB rate has increased in each of his three full seasons, including a jump from 8.4% in ’07 to 14.9% in ’08. His average standard distance, on the other hand, still sucks. With an average of only 378.4’ last year, he typically only has legitimate power towards the line in left. Luckily for him, he’s got the Green Monster at his disposal, and a look at his spray chart indicates that he uses it rather effectively. He’s staying with the Red Sox, though, so if he can maintain is HR/FB rate (which is likely at his age), he can approach 30 homeruns again.

A word on Fenway and how it affects my perception of Youk: for those of you who read my article on Pedroia, you know that his over-reliance on the Green Monster for homers and doubles troubled me. I was worried that if he starts getting pitched more on the outer part of the plate, he wouldn’t be able to use the Monster as effectively. Youk’s situation doesn’t worry me as much, though, because he doesn’t appear to be as reliant on it as Pedroia. While his homerun totals benefit from it, he puts up pretty similar offensive numbers on the road to what he does at Fenway. He hit five more homeruns at Fenway (17) than he did on the road (12), but his double totals are pretty similar – 23 at Fenway, and 20 away. Perdoia’s double splits were far more skewed, with 35 at Fenway and 19 away.

In terms of runs and RBI, I have little doubt that Youk will have any issues whatsoever approaching or surpassing 100 in both categories. His progressively increasing wOBA shows that he’s getting the kinds of hits that bring guys that are on base in, but it also shows that he’s positioning himself well for others to bring him in. He’s reached 100 in both categories before in his career, and there’s no reason he can’t achieve that feat in both with Boston’s line-up next year. He’ll have Pedroia ahead of him, who gets on base while frequently reaching second, and he’ll have Bay and possibly Drew (if healthy) behind him to bring him in. Ortiz remains a big question, but if Youk has to move up to the third spot in the line-up due to further struggles from Ortiz, he would be more likely to benefit directly from Pedroia in regard to his RBI total.

One final promising trait about Youkilis that makes him all the more enticing of a draft pick is his overall consistency. He’s not the kind of player that has severe hot and cold streaks. His month-to-month splits from last year are mind-bogglingly consistent – he only had one month (September – in which he had the fewest at bats) where hit hit below .300 (.275 this month) and didn’t score within the range of 14-18 runs (9, but in fewer AB’s). Before the All-Star Break, Youk hit .314 with 15 homers and 25 doubles. After it, he hit .310 with 14 homers and 18 doubles. You gotta like that kind of dependency in a league where there’s so much time for hitters to go hot and cold.

Youk can be drafted at either third or first next year, so he will likely be drafted at third. Wright and ARod will almost certainly go in the first round, and Longoria will likely also be taken pretty high. Chipper will also be in the mix, but his injury risk makes his draft position less predictable. Overall, if the first three are already off the board and you get to a lull in third basemen in the middle of the draft, Youk would be a perfect steal. Keep following mocks to see where he’s likely to go, as I would highly recommend spending a pick on him at the right time.

-John Dorhauer