A perennial first- rounder has left the friendly confines of Coors Field to join the Oakland Athletics. He is also leaving behind a line-up that includes strong hitters like Garret Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki to join a line-up that includes... well pretty much no one. It will be very interesting to see how these factors influence his fantasy value in the upcoming season.
Splits
Over the past three seasons, Holliday has benefited greatly from playing in Coors Field. On the road he put up a strong but far from superstar line of .296/.370/.486, contributing 147 runs, 33 HR, and 120 RBI. At Coors Field he turns into Superman, posting a line of .361/.430/.669, allowing him to produce 199 runs, 62 HR, and 219 RBI. When you combine this with the fact that he is moving to a park that inflates the value of pitchers (hello Mr. Zito), not hitters, Holliday could be looking at a rough year.
Home Runs
Hittrackeronline.com has been a great tool to allow me to further analyze Holliday’s production. In 2008, his average standard distance (which assumes the ball was hit with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level) on home runs was 408.4 feet, compared to a league average of 391.3. His average speed off bat was 106.4 MPH, barely above the league average of 104.2. This shows that with all other factors being held equal, Holliday is certainly an above-average hitter, but far from the superstar he is made out to be. However, the most glaring stat is the number of “just enough” and “lucky” home runs that Holliday hit. In 2008, he was sixth in the NL with 11 “just enough” homers and seventh with 6 “lucky” home runs. This is even worse when you realize that he hit only 25 home runs, while other guys above him on the list include premiere power hitters like Ryan Howard and Ryan Braun. The percentage of home runs he hits that barely clear the fence or wouldn’t have even gone out with normal wind and weather is much higher than these other hitters.. A lot of swings that would have left Coors Field are going to settle into the gloves of opposing outfielders at Mcafee Coliseum.
Line-up
Last year, the Rockies posted a respectable total of 747 runs, while the Athletics were fourth from the bottom with only 646. While along with Holliday the A’s have added another power threat in Jason Giambi, he will not be surrounded by the same quality of hitters as in Colorado. He will therefore not have the same number of opportunities to drive in runs that he did in Colorado. I tried to find the number of at-bats he had with runners in scoring position and compare that with the number of RBI opportunities the equivalent batting slot in Oakland would’ve had last year. Unfortunately, I could not find that data, so if anyone knows a site where I could find that info I would be extremely grateful.
Conclusion
While Matt Holliday is certainly still a great fantasy option, he shouldn’t be going as high as he has in the past. If I am drafting late in the first round and early in the second you will not hear me calling out his name.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Matt Holliday – The Coors Effect
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Baseball-Reference has RISP data for players on its splits pages (under the Bases Occupied heading), so you can check Holliday's numbers there. You can also check the Bases Occupied splits for entire teams, but unfortunately, I don't know of any site that lists splits for teams broken down by batting position. That info is available in Retrosheet's PBP files, though. Here's the A's RBI opps for their #3 hitter in 2008:
Runners on 2nd: 139
Runners on 3rd: 62
Total PAs with RISP: 174
These don't really compare directly to Holliday's splits on his B-R page because he didn't play all 162 games (he had 173 PAs with RISP, but in only 139 games), so here's the Rockies' totals for their #3 hitter so we're looking at apples to apples:
Runners on 2nd: 155
Runners on 3rd: 72
Total PAs w/ RISP: 205
So Holliday, based on 2008 data, should expect about 15% fewer runners in scoring position as well as 15% fewer PAs with RISP, assuming he hits 3rd in Oakland. I'm not sure the drop-off will actually be that much, though, because that team was not ready for the Majors last year. A couple months in, they pretty much threw in the towel on 2008 for the sake of the future, and they were putting out kids who hadn't developed fully at the plate. Half of their starting lineup was 24 or younger. They should be improved a bit this year even without the new acquisitions.
That is true. There will defintely be some improvement in the Oakland lineup. However, I still do not think it will compare to Colorado's lineup, especially when they get a full season out of Tulowitzki.
Thanks for the reference to the bases splits though! Greatly appreciated.
Post a Comment