Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Mock Draft Analysis: Amateur Mixed 5x5, 2/6/09 (Pt. 3)


As promised, the third and final installment of my epic 3-part analysis of a seemingly unimportant mock draft, in which I cite what I believe to be the 11 worst pics. One important caveat before I begin: I am not attempting to put down anyone when I say that someone made a bad pick. I’m just trying to provide a service to the general public by offering my opinions on what draft positions provide you with good or bad value. It’s also important to remember that this was just a mock draft, so people may have been using a specific strategy that would cause them to draft someone where they wouldn’t normally draft them. With all that in mind, here are the 11 worst picks.

You can view the entire draft here.

11 Worst Picks:

-Brandon Phillips – R2 P10: I already wrote an extensive article on why I think he’ll be a bust, but regardless, I think the end of the second round is way too early for him.

-Aramis Ramirez – R3 P8: Paul Singman did a great profile on Ramirez last November over at THT, and I recommend you check that out if you haven’t already. Far too early in the draft for this aging veteran, even at a shallow position.

-Carlos Quentin – R4 P1: This is about where Quentin has been taken in most mocks, but it’s a little soon for me with the questions surrounding his recovery. Could be a great selection if healthy, though.

-Corey Hart – R4 P9: Refer to my recent profile on him (as well as McLouth) for more detailed information. Even if you’re a believer in him, though, you could probably wait til at least the fifth round to get him.

-David Ortiz – R5 P6: I’m not a big believer in Ortiz at this point, but I think you could still take him a little later if you really wanted him.

-Chris Davis – R5 P12: There’s a good chance I’ll go after Davis, but probably not this early. In this person’s defense, though, he did have 22 picks before his next selection, so it is a bit unfair to criticize the selection of Davis in the fifth round in this circumstance.

-Bobby Abreu – R6 P5: For starters, we don’t know where he’ll be next year. Also, he’s an aging veteran that looks to be on the decline.

-Dan Uggla – R6 P9: A lot like Dunn, but not as good. Also probably not as likely to sustain his numbers, either. But he was selected before Dunn – go figure.

-Michael Young – R6 P10: Honestly, I’m not a huge Michael Young fan. There are far better options at short, yet he was taken ahead of most of them.

-Derek Jeter – R9 P7: Somehow, Jeter will almost always manage to get taken before the tenth round. Like with Young, there were better options on the table.

-Miguel Tejada – R11 P2: Another aging veteran on the decline. Same as the previous two – there were better options still available, namely J.J. Hardy.

Well, I think that’s more than enough analysis for one amateur mock draft. In closing, I’m finding my mock draft experiences to be very helpful, and I’d fully recommend trying them out for yourself if you get the chance. I never really understood how difficult it was to get a sense of actually drafting until I had to do it myself, so get to it if you haven’t already.

-John Dorhauer

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