Assessing Veteran Talent: Andy Pettitte

For the previous installments in this series, I’ve profiled some of the most prominent established hitters in the game. Today, however, I’d like to look at a pitcher that has been a model of consistency and durability in recent years: Andy Pettitte. Although he will turn 37 this season, Pettitte only appears to be getting more durable with age. He’s logged over 200 innings in five of the last six seasons, including all four of his most recent efforts. Some might say, though, that decline is imminent due to his decline in ERA and his W-L records over the past few years. We know he’s going to be in that Yankee rotation next year, but beyond that, what can we expect from Pettitte in 2009?

Let’s start with the ERA. In his two years since returning to the Yankees, Pettitte has yet to post an ERA under 4.00, going as high as 4.54 last year. Looking at his FIP during this span, however, it appears that Pettitte is a much better pitcher than his ERA would suggest. Although his ERA climbed from 4.05 in ’07 to 4.54 in ’08, his FIP actually improved in this time, falling from 3.87 to 3.71. It seems clear that some external force is wreaking havoc on Pettitte’s success as a pitcher, and if you think about it for a second, I bet you can figure it out. That’s right, the Yankees’ horrendous defense.

Just how bad was their defense last year? As a unit, their ultimate zone rating (UZR) was 39.4 runs below average. Only the Reds and the Rockies were worse. To put that into perspective, their divisional foes, the Rays, were 70.6 runs above average – a whopping 110 run difference! Only two of the Yankees’ regular starters posted above average UZR totals, but both tallied those marks in left field (Damon had a UZR of 8.4, and Nady was 0.8). One reason why this hurts Pettitte in particular is because he’s a predominantly ground ball pitcher – 51.5% of the batted balls he allowed last year were grounders. He at least had an adequate fielding defense behind him in Houston, which is why his ERA was more reflective of his FIP during his three years there. This also explains Pettitte’s unusually high BABIP as a Yankee – last year his BABIP was .339, but in two of his three seasons in Houston it was below .300.

Perhaps a silver lining in this for Pettitte is the fact that the Yankees defense is likely to improve in 2009. Teixeira replacing Giambi at first and (probably) Nady replacing Abreu in right will be huge improvements. Cano also has a chance of substantial individual improvement – while he had a UZR of –7.3 last year, he posted a UZR of 8.1 in 2007. Not entirely sure what accounted for this drop, but it’d be hard to imagine it being this bad again knowing he has that high of a ceiling. It is important to note, however, that all of these possible improvements will be happening on the right side of the field, which may not help Pettitte that much. He’s historically much better against lefties than righties, so don’t be surprised if opposing teams stack their lineups full of righties against him. And because of he’s not much of a power pitcher whose velocity is already dropping (I’ll discuss this more a little later on), I’d expect a lot of the batted balls on Pettitte’s watch to head towards the left side. Bottom line: it’s hard to gauge how much the Yankees’ defense will hurt Pettitte again in ’09.

One thing that the Yankees’ defense can’t hurt Pettitte that much on is his strikeout totals. Pettitte’s never really been an elite strikeout pitcher – his personal best is 180 in 2003. The problem is, though, that he’s never been consistent year-to-year in his strikeout totals. It’s been since 1999 going into 2000 that he’s had two consecutive years where his K/9 rates have either risen or dropped by less that 0.5. Last year marked an improvement of 1.08 strikeouts per 9 (5.89 in ’07, 6.97 in ’08), but I have little confidence in saying that this trend will continue next year. His 6.97 K/9 rate last year was relatively close to his career mark of 6.60, so it’s at least reasonable to expect that he’ll post the same kind of strikeout numbers next year.

As erratic as Pettitte’s strikeout rates have been recently, his BB/9 rates have been relatively stagnant. They’ve slowly declined over the last three years, but they’ve still been hovering around or over 2.5, which isn’t great. Along these lines, his WHIP totals have been stagnant of late, but they’re still over 1.4. Keep in mind that his WHIP is also likely suffering from the extra hits that his defense is allowing, but his high walk rates tell me that Pettitte has little hope of being any more than a little below average with WHIP.

One other interesting thing about Pettitte, especially in regard to his age, is his pitch selection and velocity. Last year, Pettitte relied much more on his cutter than in recent years, throwing it 27.9% of the time in 2008 (up from 18.2% in 2007). This could account for the jump in strikeouts, and it could extend his positive trend if he keeps it up. One discouraging thing, though, is his decreased velocity in both his cutter and his fastball. For the cutter, his average velocity dropped from 85.2 mph in ’07 to 83.8 mph in ’08, and his fastball fell from 89.1 mph to 88.5 mph in the same stretch. A drop in velocity is a big tell for an aging pitcher, and this may finally be catching up to Pettitte.

Overall, expect Pettitte to be a little below average in strikeouts and WHIP with a potential to catch a break in his ERA (although I wouldn’t count on him getting below 4.00). The one area where Pettitte will carry the most value will be with his wins – pitching with the support of the Yankees’ lineup (tenth in runs scored last year, but could definitely improve this year with Teixeira and a rebound from Cano) will likely benefit him. It’s difficult to gauge Pettitte’s perceived draft value from mocks, as he only recently resigned with the Yankees. I think his talent is definitely on the decline, but he could add some good back-end rotation value for you if you get him in a late round. You probably won’t see me draft him, however, as I would rather spend that pick on a younger starter with more upside than an aging veteran with a lower ceiling.

By John Dorhauer

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Who Will Bounce Back in '09 and Who To Avoid At This Year's Draft

Who will bounce back this year?

Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees – Amid lofty expectations, Cano had his worst year as a professional last year, putting up an ugly .270 average with only 70 runs and 72 RBI. However, the Yankees have remained steadfast in their commitment to him and still envision him as the future of the franchise at second base. He is still hitting in a potent line-up that got even better with the addition of Teixeira, and could end up being one of the biggest steals in the draft. I would not be surprised to see him bounce back to a .300 average while contributing 15 HR, 90 runs and 85 RBI. Let the other managers spend their top picks on guys like Utley and Phillips, while you grab Cano in the later rounds.

Khalil Greene, SS, Cardinals – Getting out of Petco will be a blessing for Greene as he enters his prime years. During his career, he has hit .270 with 50 HR, 177 runs and 178 RBI on the road, compared to an abysmal .225/34/124/150 at home. He will also be hitting in a more dangerous line-up with fellow fantasy studs Pujols and Ludwick. I’m not advising to pass on Ramirez, Reyes or Rollins if you have the opportunity, but Greene could turn out to be an excellent pick in the later rounds.

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians – Carmona’s struggles last year can be attributed to his heavy workload in 2007, where he eclipsed his previous career high in innings pitched by over 50. With only 125 IP last year and some much needed rest on his arm, Carmona should bounce back in 2009 to become the ace of the Indians staff. He should provide your team with 15 wins and an ERA closer to 3.00 than 4.00, which is great value for where he will probably be drafted.

Who should scare you away?

Garret Atkins, 1B/3B, Rockies – Colorado lost their top hitter when they traded Holliday, and Atkins will miss his presence in the line-up. His future with Colorado is also up in the air, and a trade away from Coors Field would be a knockout blow to his fantasy value. But perhaps the most obvious sign to stay away are his totals over the past three years, where he has experienced significant drops in every category.

BA: .329, .301, .286
HR: 29, 25, 21
Runs: 117, 83, 86
RBI: 120, 111, 99
SB: 4, 3, 1

Vlad Guerrero, OF, Angels – Guerrero’s age and bad back are finally catching up with him, and the number of AB’s he is accumulating each year is in decline (607, 574, 541 over the past three years). His fantasy totals are suffering correspondingly. His 2008 performance of a .303 average, 85 runs, 27 HR and 91 RBI show that he is no longer the Vlad of old. He can still be a valuable contributor to any team’s outfield but should no longer be expected to carry a team.

Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds – John covered this in detail a couple of weeks ago and there is no need to elaborate. Don’t waste a 2nd rounder on this guy.



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One Up/One Down: John Danks & Gavin Floyd

Last December, a rumor emerged that the White Sox were looking to trade Gavin Floyd for Brian Roberts. Nothing ever came of this, but I remember a White Sox fan that I know was ranting about how stupid of a trade this would be for the Sox. As anyone who knows anything about sabermetrics would do, I tried to talk him through why this would actually be an pretty damn good move for the Sox. He, however, was quite adamant that the Sox needed arms for their rotation (which makes sense) and that Floyd was a solid young pitcher (which doesn’t). I realize that this can largely be explained by a hometown bias that tends to leave many of us to view players on our beloved teams through rose-colored glasses, but it also shows how easy it is to overvalue one guy’s potential (Floyd) and overlook another’s (Danks). This brings me to the first installment of my 434-part series: Better Know a Dis…er, I mean, One Up/One Down.



If you look at the numbers posted by Danks and Floyd from their point-getting categories last year, they look pretty close:

            W  L  K  ERA  WHIP
John Danks  12 9 159 3.32 1.23
Gavin Floyd 17 8 145 3.84 1.26

Danks has a clear advantage in ERA and a slight advantage in strikeouts, while Floyd has a clear advantage in wins. Really, though they’re pretty similar, and it’s easy to see why it’s easy to confuse them on the surface. Once you start scratching immediately below that surface, however, the numbers become a bit more revealing:

             FIP K/BB  FB%  HR/FB BABIP CT%
John Danks  3.44 2.79 35.4%  7.4% .299 77.1%
Gavin Floyd 4.77 2.07 39.7% 11.8% .268 81.7%

Looking at these stats – which are far more helpful in terms of predicting future growth and decline – reveals that Danks is clearly the better pitcher. He has a decided edge in every category, but what sticks out the most is the differential in FIP, or fielding-independent pitching. For those of you who aren’t familiar with this measure, it’s basically an ERA-type stat that strips away everything except what the pitcher has absolute control over: homeruns, strikeouts and walks (some models incorporate HBP’s, but the fact that those rarely happen means that it doesn’t matter too much either way). Because ERA accounts for everything that happens while the pitcher is on the mound, it’s not really the best indicator of how many runs the pitcher was really accountable for. This isn’t to say that ERA is completely useless, but it is why FIP is a better way of predicting future outlook for a pitcher. And with a difference of 1.33, Danks clearly has the better outlook.

There are a number of contributing factors that affect a pitcher’s FIP, and, as expected, Danks also faired better in those areas last year. For starters, Danks has the far superior strikeout-to-walk ratio. Furthermore, Danks struck out about one more batter per 9 than Floyd (7.34 to 6.32) and allowed nearly half a walk less over the same span (2.63 to 3.05). Obviously, these totals will lead to a lower FIP for Danks since they account for two of the three variables. More importantly, though, they mean that Danks is doing a far greater job than Floyd of taking away a batter’s opportunity to reach base and not giving him a guaranteed trip to first.

Along these same lines are their respective flyball percentages and homerun-to-flyball rates, which help account for the third (and most weighted) variable in the FIP equation. Just as it is advantageous to have a smaller number of homers for every flyball you allow, it helps to allow less flyballs overall, as this is the most effective way to reduce your homerun totals. Yet again, Danks has the upper hand here. This is especially significant when you consider their home park – the Cell has earned somewhat of a reputation of giving up the longball, which is not conducive to a pitcher who tends to give up more flyballs.

One area that a pitcher has less control over would be hits allowed. While a pitcher can control the likeliness of whether or not the batter will make contact with his pitch (to an extent), he has very little control over where a contacted ball will go and even less control over what his fielders will do with that batted ball. This is where BABIP and contact rates come into play. According to Derek Carty at THT, pitchers tend to regress to the league average of BABIP – about .300 – because they have very little control over this total (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/whats-the-best-babip-estimator/). Consequentially, this is why hits are not factored into FIP. Danks’ BABIP was right at that league average last year, but Floyd’s was significantly below that mark. This could account for much of that wide gap between his ERA and his FIP – even though he wasn’t particularly good in aspects that he could control (ie, homers and walks), he seemed to be pretty lucky in regard to out conversion of balls he allowed in play. If this does move back towards .300, however, you could see how his ERA could easily balloon well over 4.00. On the flip side, Danks’ lower contact rate shows that he is allowing hitters to convert less of their AB’s into hit-producing opportunities.

I know that pointing out that Danks has a better outlook than Floyd won’t exactly come as an epiphany to most, but I think it is important to show how two players who look the same on the surface may not always be comparable in reality. It’s always important to check important statistical categories to either confirm or refute what you believe, which is what I’ve done here. In this case, Danks is clearly the superior option.

By John Dorhauer


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Fantasy Pros 911 Article

Guys, check out my lastest article at Fantasy Pros 911. I give you a little insight into the relationship with my girlfriend and fantasy baseball. Something I'm sure you can all relate to.

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Recent Mock Draft Results

Last weekend I participated in a mock draft with my buddy Tim McLeod from RotoRob.com. This was not a expert draft and was open to the public. I had a lot of fun and I think I did a pretty good job of accomplishing what I set out to do. Check out the results and let me know what you think.


This was a standard 12 team mixed league, 23 man roster. I made a concience effort to get speed late and get value for my closers. I think I did a decent job at both but I want to know what you guys think.

C - Victor Martinez -- CLE -- R6, P9
C - Taylor Teagarden -- TEX -- R21, P4
1B - Kevin Youkilis -- BOS -- R5, P4
1B - Paul Konerko -- CHW -- R14, P9
1B - Mike Jacobs -- KC -- R22, P9
2B - Brandon Phillips -- CIN -- R3, P4
2B - Kaz Matsui -- HOU -- R15, P4
SS - Miguel Tejada -- HOU -- R10, P9
3B - David Wright -- NYM -- R1, P4
OF - Carlos Quentin -- CHW -- R2, P9
OF - Jay Bruce -- CIN -- R9, P4
OF - Nelson Cruz -- TEX -- R11, P4
OF - Carlos Gomez -- MIN -- R16, P9
OF - Hideki Matsui -- NYY -- R18, P9
SP - Jake Peavy -- SD -- R4, P9
SP - John Lackey -- ANA -- R8, P9
SP - Matt Cain -- SF -- R13, P4
SP - Ted Lilly -- CHC -- R17, P4
SP - Kenshin Kawakami-- ATL -- R19, P4
SP - Ubaldo Jimenez -- COL -- R20, P9
RP - Francisco Rodriguez-- NYM -- R7, P4
RP - Kerry Wood -- CLE -- R12, P9
RP - Grant Balfour -- TB -- R23, P4

Overall I really like the team I was able to put together. I went away from my usual style. I went with young position players instead of young pitchers. There are still question marks that surround Nelson Cruz, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gomez, and Taylor Teagarden. I think the only unknow with my starting pitchers is Kenshin Kawakami but if you read my article at fantasypros911.com on Kawakami you will see why I like him so much.

I feel that I did get some very good values on some players. I think that Rodrguez in the early 7th round is a good bargain as well as Cain in the 13th and Lilly in the 17th. Also Kaz Matsui in the 15th and Mike Jacobs in the 22nd are both very good deals.

There were some things that I didn't like about my team. I was unable to secure a SS early and had to settle for Miguel Tejada. I don't care for Tejada but you can do worse. I've been doing something else a little differently this year and that is I've been grabbing a top C early. I may have been able to wait a round on Victor Martinez.

It was a good draft but like I said it wasn't an expert draft. I'm not saying that the people I drafted with were incompetants but an expert draft would have gone much differently.

View the full results of the draft here

What do you think of the team? What would you have done differently?


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2009 Shortstop Rankings

Here we go with some more rankings. Shortstop is usually a trouble spot if you don't address the position early. It seems as if the position gets thinner and thinner every year. See which former start continues to slide downward as the years go by.


1. Hanley Ramirez- The man is the first overall pick more than 50% of the time. If he's your shortstop then you have nothing to worry about. Steals were down in '08 but power was up. Prediction: .306 BA 125 R 35 HR 80 RBI 37 SB

2. Jose Reyes- Like Ramirez you can't go wrong here. Some would argue for Reyes as the top pick. Also like Ramirez, his steals were down a little but he'll still get more than anyone else. Prediction: .293 BA 121 R 18 HR 76 RBI 61 SB

3. Jimmy Rollins- After two monster seasons Rollins regressed closer to his norm. A re-dedicated Rollins should see a bump in his stats. Needs to make more consistent contact. Falls out of the first round in '09. Prediction: .285 BA 105 R 16 HR 78 RBI 42 SB

4. J.J. Hardy- He's beginning to come into his own and has shown more consistency. I believe that he still has not reached his power potential. He's very good value for his ADP. Prediction: .284 BA 85 R 27 HR 87 RBI 4 SB

5. Stephen Drew- Finally has added power to his game but has yet to add speed. Not enough of either to surpass Hardy. He should continue to show improvement in both categories. Prediction: .293 BA 94 R 23 HR 74 RBI 5 SB

6. Troy Tulowitzki- He started to show the kind of player he is late in the season. He needs to learn to not put so much pressure on himself. Huge power potential. Prediction: .286 BA 83 R 23 HR 81 RBI 6 SB

7. Michael Young- Saw a bit of a down season from Young but still a solid player. Still involved in trade rumors. There are few places other than Texas will he will be able to match past numbers. Prediction: .291 BA 98 R 14 HR 80 RBI 9 SB

8. Jhonny Peralta- Probably out-did himself in '08. We should see some regression this year but still a solid hitter. Starting to become a very dependable player at a thin position. Prediction: .272 BA 89 R 22 HR 79 RBI 4 SB

9. Derek Jeter- His skills are starting to deteriorate some but he still has a few more good years left. Nothing fancy anymore but decent numbers across the board. Prediction: .308 BA 99 R 12 HR 73 RBI 14 SB

10. Rafael Furcal- It's hard to know what to expect from him in '09. Injuries are catching up to him and keeping him out for longer periods of time. Played great when he was healthy but injuries are still an issue. If he can produce a healthy '09 these numbers will go up. Prediction: .287 BA 78 R 9 HR 59 RBI 25 SB

11. Mike Aviles- He burst on the AL scene last year and turn many people into believers, including myself. He won't hit .325 again but will be a solid hitter with room to grow in the power dept. Prediction: .295 BA 79 R 16 HR 70 RBI 12 SB

12. Miguel Tejada- Talk about deteriorating skills, Tejada is a shell of his former self. It doesn't look like the power numbers are going to go anywhere but down at this point. Prediction: .286 BA 87 R 12 HR 69 RBI 6 SB

13. Orlando Cabrera- He's starting to get up there in age and the numbers are coming down some. He can still be a solid option at SS but is more of a MI type now. We'll still get a good BA and nice SB numbers. Prediction: .286 BA 91 R 8 HR 53 RBI 21 SB

14. Khalil Greene- A change of scenery will be good for Greene. He was absolutely abismal in '08 but he can't go anywhere but up this year. Prediction: .255 BA 72 R 20 HR 74 RBI 7 SB

15. Ryan Theriot- He's a Juan Pierre-type but with less steals. He's still a good MI option will help with your BA as well. Prediction: .298 BA 83 R 2 HR 42 RBI 23 SB

16. Jason Bartlett- Same as Theriot will a little more upside. Won't score as many runs as Theriot though. Prediction: .289 BA 65 R 3 HR 39 RBI 26 SB

17. Christian Guzman- Has finally solidified himself as a consistent hitter. Great BA with a little bit of everything else. I can see another very good year for him in '09. Prediction: .310 BA 80 R 8 HR 62 RBI 9 SB

18. Yunel Escobar- He is what he is and it's not that much. Just doesn't steal which kills his value. Prediction: .290 BA 75 R 11 HR 63 RBI 2 SB

19. Emmanuel Burriss- He could be the man at SS for the Giants. Has great speed but is still unproven. Keep an eye on the situation in Spring Training. Prediction: .288 BA 71 R 5 HR 41 RBI 26 SB

20. Edgar Renteria- We're starting to get into fantasy irrelevance now. The once great star is now banished to the hitting black hole of San Fran. Prediction: .281 BA 66 R 9 HR 61 RBI 5 SB

21. Jed Lowrie- Not a lot of power or speed but drives in runs and should see an increase in BA in '09. Has the potential to move farther up this list. Prediction: .276 BA 78 R 6 HR 70 RBI 5 SB

22. Brendan Harris- He's a better hitter than .265 but playing time is a question mark. Solid injury fill-n. Prediction: .281 61 R 11 HR 62 RBI 2 SB

23. Yuniesky Betancourt- Has upside but is looking more and more like it won't be reached. His current upside is that he plays everyday. Prediction: .283 67 R 9 HR 60 RBI 6 SB

24. Marco Scutaro- Solid all-around player with multiple position eligibility. Can get hot for extended periods. Prediction: .272 BA 78 R 8 HR 59 RBI 9 SB

25. Jack Wilson- Should be healthy for '09 and plays everyday. Decent option if you're in a bind. Prediction: .282 BA 71 R 9 HR 55 RBI 4 SB


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Why You Should Avoid Drafting Brandon Phillips

This article was inspired by a comment left by one of my uncles on a recent article of mine from my family’s new 3-D Baseball site. The article addressed candidates to become the fifth member of baseball’s 40/40 club (to learn about my ultimate conclusions, you’ll just have to read that article), and my uncle mentioned a guy I didn’t address whom he thought might have an outside shot at achieving this feat: Brandon Phillips. My uncle’s not the only guy who’s a fan of Phillips – despite suffering substantial drops in all point-getting categories for rotisserie leagues last year, he will likely be one of the first five or so second basemen drafted next year because of his potential as a speed-power guy. I’ll be the first to admit – I’m not that big on Brandon Phillips. It wasn’t until I profiled him more in depth, however, that I realized how big of a bust I think he’ll be next year.



Let’s start with his power numbers. Phillips dropped from 30 homers in ’07 to 21 in ’08. He did have about 100 less AB’s between the two years, though, so it’s not quite as huge of a gap as it may initially seem. (It comes out to 21.7 AB/HR in ’07 and 26.6 AB/HR in ’08.) But while these numbers themselves may not suggest an imminent nose-dive, his peripherals don’t allow for much hope of a turnaround. During his three full seasons with the Reds, Phillips has consistently hit just over a third of his batted balls for flies. Because he doesn’t hit many in the air, he needs a good ratio of those that do make it up to go out. He was able to do this in 2007 at his best career rate (15.9%), but not so much in 2008 (13.2%). A resurgence of power wouldn’t be completely out of the question, but because it appears that his flyball rate isn’t going anywhere, his HR/FB ratio would need to return to its 2007 levels.

The main reason that I’m not too optimistic about this is because of the trends I noticed from his homerun spray charts at hittrackeronline.com. Phillips is in the midst of two debilitating negative trends – his average standard distance and his direction of homeruns hit. While his ASD of 391.9’ in 2008 wasn’t horrible, it was the nadir of his three-year downward trend (393.9’ in ’07, 395.8’ in ’06). What was more telling to me, though, was that fact that his homers are now starting to skew exclusively towards left field. In the previous two years he had substantial power to both center and opposite field. His total number of opposite field homers went from 5 in ’06 to 12 in ’07 to 1 in ’08. It would appear that most of the flyballs he hit over the fence towards center and right last year stayed in the yard for 2008, and I would expect this trend to continue into 2009.

Phillips hasn’t really been known for his average, but even that took a pretty sizeable hit in 2008. The fact that he doesn’t hit for average shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone – he hits a lot of grounders (nearly 50% in ’08!) and not a lot of line drives (16.4% in ’08). Because of his lack of line drives, his BABIP doesn’t help him out any, either (.281 in ’08). To top it all off, Phillips swings a lot and doesn’t make great contact. He has yet to crack a contact rate of 80%, even though he swings over half the time. In fact, his swing percentage of 54% last year was tied for the ninth highest mark in baseball. He’s particularly susceptible to pitches out of the zone – last year, he swung at over a third of these pitches while only making contact 52% of the time. Basically, if you expect Phillips to hit anything around or over .275 next year, you’re quite the optimist.

The swing rates I just mentioned have also hurt Phillips’ walk rates (6.5% last year, which was actually his highest mark as a full-timer), which have conversely hurt his opportunities for base stealing. Many people view Phillips’ stolen base totals to be his most appealing trait, but I actually believe that it will be the biggest reason he’ll be a bust next year. His stolen base percentage is in a current three-year decline, going from 92% in ’06 to 80% in ’07 to 69% in ’08. What’s most fascinating about his stolen bases is his monthly splits. From the beginning of the season through July, Phillips’ numbers were pretty much in line with what he had done throughout his career. Throughout August and September, however, his stolen base numbers went sour with only one successful stolen base in five tries. This is a drastic shift. I suppose it’s possible that these two months were just an anomaly, but it seemed too significant to chalk up to bad luck. In reality it had nothing to do with luck and everything to do with something that happened with the Reds in early August last year – Adam Dunn’s trade to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

When Dunn was with Cincinnati, Phillips consistently hit directly ahead of him in the lineup, so it’s clear how this move would have such a substantial impact on Phillips. There are a number of factors that would explain how this might specifically affect Phillips’ stolen base numbers – the occasional extreme defensive shifts Dunn would get with runners on, more off-speed pitches for such a dangerous power hitter, a lack of focus on baserunners while Dunn was at the plate, etc. Because I didn’t have any concrete proof of this, I asked my brother, Adam (a statistical wizard who, coincidentally, also writes for 3-dbaseball.net), to see what numbers he could come up with in support of this. Instead of attempting to rephrase the results he sent me, I’ll simply quote him directly:

I looked at every baserunner who was on first at least 5 times with second base open and Dunn at the plate in the past 3 years. There were 12 such players who were in this situation a total of 309 times. I compared how often they attempted to steal and how often they were successful with Dunn at the plate and with anyone else at the plate. Here's what I found:

In those 309 opportunities, they attempted to steal 54 times and were successful 46 times. Had those 309 opportunities come with any other hitter at the plate, they would have attempted 31.3 times and been successful 23.0. So they both attempted quite a bit more often and were successful at a higher rate with Dunn at the plate. phillips specifically was 29 for 34 in 90 opps with Dunn at the plate, and was 12.5 for 16.5 for every 90 opps with someone else at the plate. Replacing those 90 opps with Dunn with 90 more of his non-Dunn opps brings his 3-year cumulative total from 60 for 75 to 43.5 for 57.5. If we assume he benefits from Dunn at the same rate as the rest of the sample and adjust his totals based on the overall rate changes, he drops to 45.5 for 60.7 over those 3 years. This is all considering only steals of second with the base open, so it doesn't account for double steals or steals of third, but if we assume the same rate of change, we're talking about his steals being cut by a fourth and a significant drop in SB%.

Some pretty heavy stuff here, but it clearly supports my hypothesis that Phillips was benefiting from Dunn’s presence in the lineup. With Dunn out of the picture for 2009 (as he was for that small window of time at the end of 2008), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Phillips’ stolen base totals plummet. If his steal totals do drop by a fourth as my brother speculates, he’d be down to 17 without factoring any additional loss of SB% or SB attempts.

Clearly, the evidence I found supported my belief that Phillips will be a bust next year. With a poor batting average and likely drops in homers and steals, I don’t see how Phillips is anything other than highly overrated going into draft day this year. There will be far better and far cheaper options for you at second base, so unless you’re really big on Phillips I would avoid him at all costs.

-John Dorhauer


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My Big Fat Greek Player Profile

One player whose progressive development in recent years has shocked me has been Kevin Youkilis. For whatever reason, he never struck me as a guy that could be anything more that a platoon/career minor league guy. Maybe it’s the fact that he looks more like a lumberjack than a ballplayer, I don’t know. The fact is, though, that he’s proven me wrong. Dead wrong. Over three full seasons at the bigs, Youkilis has steadily improved, which culminated in quantum leaps in almost all offensive categories last year. So the question is this: can we expect Youk’s escalating numbers to continue, or will he be reduced to lumberjacking stereotypes again?



Before we tackle this, it’s important to understand just how much Youkilis improved last year. Three statistical leaps that really stood out to me occurred in ISO, wRAA (weighted runs above average) and wOBA (weighted on-base average), which are three of my favorite stats to look at for offensive production and prediction. (If you’re not familiar with wRAA or wOBA, I posted a couple links that delve into them in my previous article on Ethier.) His ISO rose from .165 in ’07 to .257 in ‘08, his wRAA from 21.8 to 38.1, and his wOBA from .373 to .402. Basically, he went from a pretty good hitter in ’07 to an elite hitter in ’08, ranking in the top 15 in MLB in all three categories. He’s become one of the best in the game at getting on base, hitting for extra bases, and scoring runs.

In terms of point-getting offensive categories, Youk’s a solid bet in every category except stolen bases. He’s proven to be a solid .280 hitter, but that mark got as high as .312 last year. Even though Marcel and Bill James both project him around the .290 range – which isn’t bad at all – he’s got a decent shot of duplicating his 2008 total. He’s hit line drives consistently at a rate over 20% throughout his career, which has always given him a decent BABIP. Hitting line drives in Fenway is also a good way to pad your BABIP and, consequentially, your BA – last year, the Red Sox were fourth in baseball with a .320 BABIP, yet they were middle of the pack in terms of line drive rates (tied for fourteenth). The only negative trend Youk has going for his BA is his swing rates, especially on pitches out of the zone. This rose nearly 4% last year to 22.3%, which also accounts for a decrease in walk rate. While this total alone probably won’t hurt him much, any further increase could bring his average back under .300.

Youk also saw a burst of power in ’08, as he almost reached 30 homers and practically doubled his output from the previous year. He wasn’t hitting more flyballs – this rate has been pretty constant over his three full seasons – but he was hitting more of them over the fence. His HR/FB rate has increased in each of his three full seasons, including a jump from 8.4% in ’07 to 14.9% in ’08. His average standard distance, on the other hand, still sucks. With an average of only 378.4’ last year, he typically only has legitimate power towards the line in left. Luckily for him, he’s got the Green Monster at his disposal, and a look at his spray chart indicates that he uses it rather effectively. He’s staying with the Red Sox, though, so if he can maintain is HR/FB rate (which is likely at his age), he can approach 30 homeruns again.

A word on Fenway and how it affects my perception of Youk: for those of you who read my article on Pedroia, you know that his over-reliance on the Green Monster for homers and doubles troubled me. I was worried that if he starts getting pitched more on the outer part of the plate, he wouldn’t be able to use the Monster as effectively. Youk’s situation doesn’t worry me as much, though, because he doesn’t appear to be as reliant on it as Pedroia. While his homerun totals benefit from it, he puts up pretty similar offensive numbers on the road to what he does at Fenway. He hit five more homeruns at Fenway (17) than he did on the road (12), but his double totals are pretty similar – 23 at Fenway, and 20 away. Perdoia’s double splits were far more skewed, with 35 at Fenway and 19 away.

In terms of runs and RBI, I have little doubt that Youk will have any issues whatsoever approaching or surpassing 100 in both categories. His progressively increasing wOBA shows that he’s getting the kinds of hits that bring guys that are on base in, but it also shows that he’s positioning himself well for others to bring him in. He’s reached 100 in both categories before in his career, and there’s no reason he can’t achieve that feat in both with Boston’s line-up next year. He’ll have Pedroia ahead of him, who gets on base while frequently reaching second, and he’ll have Bay and possibly Drew (if healthy) behind him to bring him in. Ortiz remains a big question, but if Youk has to move up to the third spot in the line-up due to further struggles from Ortiz, he would be more likely to benefit directly from Pedroia in regard to his RBI total.

One final promising trait about Youkilis that makes him all the more enticing of a draft pick is his overall consistency. He’s not the kind of player that has severe hot and cold streaks. His month-to-month splits from last year are mind-bogglingly consistent – he only had one month (September – in which he had the fewest at bats) where hit hit below .300 (.275 this month) and didn’t score within the range of 14-18 runs (9, but in fewer AB’s). Before the All-Star Break, Youk hit .314 with 15 homers and 25 doubles. After it, he hit .310 with 14 homers and 18 doubles. You gotta like that kind of dependency in a league where there’s so much time for hitters to go hot and cold.

Youk can be drafted at either third or first next year, so he will likely be drafted at third. Wright and ARod will almost certainly go in the first round, and Longoria will likely also be taken pretty high. Chipper will also be in the mix, but his injury risk makes his draft position less predictable. Overall, if the first three are already off the board and you get to a lull in third basemen in the middle of the draft, Youk would be a perfect steal. Keep following mocks to see where he’s likely to go, as I would highly recommend spending a pick on him at the right time.

-John Dorhauer


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Experts vs. Readers Dynasty League

I know that some of you out there have been waiting for a shot to compete against fantasy baseball experts. There is a great opportunity for you to do just that. Brad Stewart of MLB Front Office has designed a league like no other league out there.



The league will consist of 16 teams. Eight of the teams will be owned by experts and eight will be owned by readers. This league will be a head-to-head dynasty league. The genius of this league is that it will be as close as you can come to simulating the duties of a real GM. It will be a salary cap league based on the actual salaries of the players with a draft and a minor league system.

Here is the list of the experts that will be participating:

Brad Stewart- MLB Front Office
Bob Taylor- Fantasy Hurler
Chris Mulligan- Behind The Plate Fantasy/Fantasy Pros 911
Tony Cincotta- Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Singman- MLB Front Office/The Hardball Times
Knox Bardeen- Crooked Pitch
Ryan Hallam- MLB Front Office/Fighting Chance Fantasy
Jason Sarney- Fantasy Phenoms

The other eight teams will be open to only the best. This is a complex, long-term dynasty league and it will take a big commitment. There is a league fee of $75 with the winner taking home $700.

For more information click here. To apply contact Brad Stewart of MLB Front Office.

I look forward to competing against you guys. It will most definitely be one of a kind.

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Site Update

Happy new year to everyone and I hope the holidays went well with few arrests. I just have a couple things to say. First, I apologize for the lack of posts from myself. I've been working 12 hour days for the last month or so and I'm hoping things die down at work very soon. Things should get better in the next couple of weeks and I can start posting on a consistent basis again. I've also been working on the position rankings which is a real time consuming process. I hope to have SS and 3B both out by Monday or Tuesday. I'm having a lot of fun writing at Fantasy Pros 911. But my obligations there have taken away from my posting here. So if you're dying to read some of my stuff (and I know you guys fiend for it) go check me and the other great writers out over there. That's about all for now. Keep checking back and make sure to visit FP911. Thanks for your patience and continued support.


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3-D Baseball: A New Site Covering Every Dimension of Baseball

I just started writing for a brand new baseball blog - 3-D Baseball - and I couldn't be more excited about it. Part of this is because it's a site that I started with my brother and my father. But I'm mainly excited about the quality and variety of articles that we have already provided and will continue to provide. It's truly a site for genuine baseball lovers, as we cover anything and everything baseball. From historical musings to statistical analysis to informed debate to real-life anecdotes, there's sure to be something to whet your baseball appetite. Chris was nice enough to post a link to it on the BTPF page, but I wanted to take the opportunity to invite you personally. It something that the three of us enjoy immensely, and we hope you'll find some enjoyment in it, as well.

www.3-dbaseball.net




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DeRosa Trade Opens Door for Fontenot

Mark DeRosa was a big part of the Cubs' success for the last two seasons. He had a career year in '08, hitting the 20 HR mark for the first time in his career along with collecting many clutch hits for the club. He quickly became a fan favorite in Chicagoland. Many Cubs fans are upset to see De-Ro go but they will soon be embracing Mike Fontenot as their starting second baseman.

Fontenot has played two seasons with the Cubs now and has been very impressive when given the opportunity to play. Fontenot was awesome in limited playing time in '08. In only 243 AB Fontenot hit .305 with 42 R, 9 HR, and 40 RBI. He also came up with a lot of big hits in crucial situations for the Cubs.

Fontenot also had some tremendous peripheral stats. He had a very good BB% of 12.3% and a SLG of .514. He also had a BABIP of .355. Fontenot sprays line drives all over the field. His LD% in '08 was a solid 24%.

He may be a little guy but he packs a lot of punch in his bat. He also has some good speed. He only stole two bases last year but if he's given the opportunity to play everyday he should be in double digits. He's also an above average fielder and shouldn't lose playing time because of his defense.

Fontenot is going to be a big time sleeper heading into '09. Mark my words. He will be a solid option late in drafts for a thin MI position. The Cubs also recently signed Aaron Miles but I don't believe that he will be the everyday second baseman. The Cubs will be losing a lot of run production by trading DeRosa and while Fontenot will not be able to make up all of that, he can help much more in that area than Miles. Also, Fontenot has become a favorite of Lou Pinella's and I don't see any way that Miles gets the starting job over him.

Mike Fontenot has been way off the fantasy radar and probably still is. I may be letting the cat out of the bag but pencil him in as a top infield sleeper heading into 2009.


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Fantasy Pros 911 is Now Open!!!

Fantasy Pros 911 is now open so what are you waiting for? I'm confident that in time it will be the biggest and best fantasy sports site on the web. The page is open, the articles are up, and league registrations are open. Plus, the combo package for the premium site is under $30! Trust me people, you are not going to beat that much quality content for that price.

My first article is up on the site so check it out and leave a comment: Find it here

Join the best and fastest growing community in fantasy baseball today.




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Andre .300: A Solid Young Bat with Room to Grow

This particular title is a reference to Andre 3000 of the Grammy-winning and generally awesome duo known as OutKast. What makes this reference pertinent (aside from the name and the convenient number parallels) is the fact that the Andre about whom this article is written – Ethier – was involved in a pretty awesome duo himself last year, with Manny Ramirez being his metaphorical Big Boi. Together, these two bats helped propel the Dodgers into the playoffs. Manny was just Manny, but Ethier caught fire after Ramirez’s arrival. During September Ethier posted a line of .462/.557/.692 (an OPS of 1.249!!) and had 18 RBI and 18 runs in only 78 AB’s. Clearly, he won’t be able to sustain these numbers over an entire season, but I still like his chances of establishing himself as a solid outfielder.



Ethier will be 27 next year in what will be his fourth full season at the bigs, so we should be expecting him to reach the crest of his talent wave. And while his final month likely accounted for much of his dramatic increases in statistics last year, his stats did improve consistently across the board. Two of Ethier’s stats that showed significant spikes were wOBA (weighted on-base average)* and wRAA (weighted runs above average)**. These are two fabulous and telling new stats that have recently been posted and detailed on Fangraphs, and they are figures to which I will be referring more in the future. Ethier’s wOBA jumped from .336 in ’07 (about average) to .382 in ’08, while his wRAA rocketed from 2.0 in ’07 to 26.5 in ’08. A difference of 24.5 runs is worth about two wins overall (which means exactly what it sounds like), which was exactly how many games the Dodgers finished ahead of the Diamondbacks last year. So yeah, that’s pretty significant.

A gander at a few of Ethier’s other numbers from last year suggests that his overall play may indeed be on the incline. His contact rates, for example, have improved in each of his first three seasons, leading to his 85.4% rate last year. The funny thing about this is that his contact rate at pitches in the strike zone only improved by six-tenths of a percent, while his rate on bad balls actually decreased nearly seven percent. Wait, what? It’s not that he was making contact with more pitches; he was simply swinging at less of them. His overall swing rate dropped from 48.0% in ’07 to 43.8% in ’08, but, more significantly, his swing rate on bad pitches went from a ghastly 33.1% in ’07 to a more respectable 25.7% in ’08. As a result, he saw his walk rate rise above 10% for the first time in his career, which is a good sign for a young hitter.

Maintaining these contact rates – which seems very likely – will help to keep his batting average around or above .300, as it has been for basically his entire career. What would also help this is a repeat of his line drive rate from last year. Ethier posted an LD% of 26.6%. This may or may not seem like much to you, but it actually led the league last year. In fact, only three other people hit line drives in more than a quarter of their batted balls last year. What surprised me was that his BABIP was only .336, which is pretty darn unlucky for having such a good line drive rate. Sustaining this rate may not be possible, but keeping it anywhere close will bode well for him.

Ethier hasn’t done much in terms of power, but I think he has room to grow here. While his average standard distance on homeruns in ’08 was below 400’ (it dropped from 401’ in ’07 to 396.1’ in ’08), his spray chart shows him to have good power to all fields. Most of his power last year was to right-center, with only 5 homers considered “dead-pull shots” to the nearer fence in right. He even showed some opposite field power, hitting 4 homers towards left-center. If you remember any of my previous player profiles, you know that I favor hitters who do more than just hit homers down the line. His flyball totals from last year show that there is room for growth with his homeruns, as his flyball rates were uncharacteristically low. While his homerun-to-flyball ratio was 14.1% (not too shabby, and by far the best in his career), only 32.0% of his batted balls were flyballs. This total is pretty low, which makes sense with his high line drive rate. Some trade-off between these two would likely be beneficial for him, as it would probably help his homerun numbers more than it would hurt his BA (largely because of the unlucky BABIP from last year).

So what’s the catch? One question surrounding Ethier appears to be whether he can post consistent numbers for an entire season. While he had a ridiculous September and was pretty solid for the rest of the season, he did have a stinker of a stretch in June where he hit .195 in 77 AB’s. Honestly, you can probably expect these two extremes to be flukes and take his solid production as a whole over his streakiness. The other major concern about Ethier would be his playing time. It’s no small secret that there’s a logjam in LA’s outfield right now, with either a free agent signing of Dunn or Ramirez occupying left and a tandem of Pierre, Jones, Kemp and Ethier vying for the remaining two positions. I wouldn’t be too concerned about this, either, because Ethier is the only logical fit for right field LA currently has. There’s also talks of Jones going to the Mets, which would also make things better for Ethier. It should be noted, however, that there is at least a chance of some platooning for him next year.

Overall, I think Ethier will be pretty underrated heading into the draft next year, and he could be a very valuable mid-round selection for you. Referring to my previous article, I would probably put Ethier in my middle tier of outfielders. Keep an eye on where he goes in various mock drafts, as his value will not likely change much throughout the winter months. This will give you a better idea of his perceived value, which will tell you if he’s worth where you think he would go in a draft. You can expect a .300 average from him, and 100 runs and RBI aren’t out of the question (especially if LA brings Manny back). He can easily match his homerun total of 20 from last year, but he could even get upwards of the 25-30 range.

-John Dorhauer



* - wOBA, or weighted on-base average, is, at its fundamental core, a combination of OBP and slugging. It basically takes the rate of how often a batter gets on base (OBP) but factors how far along the bases he gets by weighting doubles, triples and homers (slugging). Here’s a post that explains it in more detail:

http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml

** - wRAA, or weighted runs above average, tells you how many runs a player scores more than a league-average player. Instead of taking using a player’s actual run total, however, this total is derived from wOBA. Here’s a post that explains it a little more:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wrc-and-wraa



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